Plans set for fighting killer flu epidemic

If flu sweeps through Snohomish County as part of a pandemic, an estimated 200,000 people could become ill – about 2,000 people each day.

Hospitals in Everett, Edmonds, Monroe and Arlington would quickly be overwhelmed with sick people needing care.

During such an overwhelming public emergency, people couldn't just call 911 for medical help.

So how would the sick get medical care?

A new disaster medical care plan from the Snohomish Health District's calls for:

Treating people who are moderately ill at home;

Setting up a call center staffed by nurses to help answer questions from the public;

Establishing seven sites in the county for people who need basic medical care;

And outfitting three large buildings in Arlington, Everett and Edmonds with medical staff and supplies to treat seriously ill patients who can't be treated in hospitals.

"A pandemic is inevitable and so we must plan for it," said Dr. Gary Goldbaum, health officer for the Snohomish Health District.

The number of people in Snohomish County seeking medical care -- up to 100,000 patients -- "will severely stress the health care system," he said. "Our response will have to involve the entire medical community."

A critical part of the response will also depend on individuals and families being able to provide initial care at home, since more people would seek medical care than hospitals and health care clinics would be able to treat, he said.

That's one reason state health officials advised people earlier this year to begin stocking up on basic supplies that could be used in a pandemic.

These include nonprescription medications for fever (such as ibuprofen and acetaminophen), stomach remedies, cough and cold medicines, fluids with electrolytes, and vitamins. A thermometer, cold packs, blankets and humidifiers also are recommended.

The plan was generally praised by members of the Snohomish Health District board.

Bothell Mayor Mark Lamb said that in his city, seniors in particular are concerned about pandemic flu.

"I think it's essential to be prepared for these issues," Lamb said.

However, Dave Somers, a Snohomish County Council member, wondered if the three acute care centers should be expanded to include a site near the U.S. 2 corridor.

"We have Sultan, Monroe, Snohomish and Gold Bar," he said. "Everett wouldn't be convenient for a sick population."

Goldbaum said he understands these concerns. But the demands on the health care system would be so high that "we can't open up more" of these treatment centers, he said. "Being able to support three would be pushing the limits."

So one of centers now proposed in Everett, Arlington and Edmonds would have to be moved, a suggestion that he said will be considered.

As now proposed, the three centers would be based at either a middle or high school in Arlington, the Comcast Arena at Everett Events Center, and Edmonds Community College.

They would care for people for two to five days, treating both people who are expected to recover and those expected to die.

These centers would provide oxygen and intravenous fluids for patients as well as 24-hour food service, a chapel, a morgue and rest areas for family caregivers.

The plan calls for the Snohomish County Chapter of the American Red Cross to provide cots and blankets for these centers as well as feed the community, said Chuck Morrison, executive director.

In Snohomish County, the push to begin planning for a worldwide flu epidemic began last year. It is part of an effort now under way throughout the nation and even internationally.

Flu periodically transforms from a typical winter bug into a killer virus.

The most deadly of these outbreaks occurred in 1918 and 1919, when an estimated 50 million people were killed worldwide.

During a typical year, influenza kills about 50 people in Snohomish County. During a pandemic, up to 4,000 people could die.

Health officials worry that bird flu, which has killed 60 percent of the 335 people infected so far throughout the world, could trigger the next global outbreak.

Since no one now knows how many people would actually get sick, no one can estimate how much it would cost to put the pandemic flu plan into action, Goldbaum said.

Health officials in Snohomish, King and Pierce counties are working to establish a single phone number people could call to get help with medical care questions, Goldbaum said.

People who couldn't care for themselves at home could go to one of seven "triage centers" in Stanwood, Arlington, Marysville, Everett, Monroe, Mill Creek and Edmonds.

People could get basic medical information at these sites, speak to a health care worker, get fluids "and hopefully be returned to home," Goldbaum said.

The plan also calls for use of medical volunteers, including retired medical workers and people who work in health care who can be used temporarily to help battle a flu pandemic.

But just how many might be needed is just one of the questions that for now can't be answered.

"A lot is unknown," Goldbaum acknowledged. "We will not know until a pandemic actually begins spreading."

Herald reporter Sharon Salyer at 425-339-3486 or salyer@heraldnet.com.