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Maya Alleruzzo / Associated Press  (click to enlarge)
Shopkeepers watch U.S. Army Sgt. Chad Caldwell, 24, from Spokane patrol in Mosul, Iraq, on Wednesday. The northern city is considered by the U.S. military the last urban stronghold for al-Qaida in Iraq.
 
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Published: Thursday, March 27, 2008

Troop levels in Iraq reviewed

Progress is weighed against efforts in Afghanistan

WASHINGTON -- Behind the Pentagon's closed doors, U.S. military leaders told President Bush on Wednesday they are worried about the Iraq war's mounting strain on troops and their families. But they indicated they'd go along with a halt in pulling out troops this summer.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff did say senior commanders in Iraq should make more frequent assessments of security conditions, an idea that appeared aimed at increasing pressure for more rapid troop reductions.

The chiefs' concern is that U.S. forces are being worn thin, compromising the Pentagon's ability to handle crises elsewhere in the world.

Wednesday's 90-minute session, held in a secure Pentagon conference room known as "the Tank," was arranged by Defense Secretary Robert Gates to provide Bush an additional set of military views as he prepares to decide how to proceed in Iraq once his troop buildup, which began in 2007, runs its course by July.

"Armed with all that, the president must now decide the way ahead in Iraq," said Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell. The discussion covered not only Iraq but Afghanistan, where violence has spiked, and broader military matters, said Morrell.

The Joint Chiefs are particularly concerned about Afghanistan and an increasingly active Taliban insurgency.

The United States has about 31,000 troops in Afghanistan, compared with 156,000 in Iraq.

U.S. forces in Iraq peaked at 20 brigades last year and are to be cut to 15 brigades, with a total of about 140,000 combat and support troops, by the end of July. A key question facing Bush is whether security conditions will have improved sufficiently by then to justify more reductions.

One of the leading advocates of Bush's troop buildup last year, military historian Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute, said Wednesday that security conditions in Iraq, while better, are not good enough to justify any commitment to troop reductions beyond July.

"The military reality is that it's virtually inconceivable that it will make sense to draw down below 15 brigades this year," Kagan said.

Gates has said he would like to see the total drop to 10 brigades by the end of this year, but that now looks unlikely.

Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, has proposed what is commonly called a "pause" to assess the impact of having withdrawn five combat brigades since December. He has argued that it would be reckless to shrink the American force so rapidly that the gains achieved over the past year are compromised or lost entirely.

Bush is expected to endorse Petraeus' approach. If, as expected, Petraeus is given until August or September to weigh the effects of the current round of reductions, then it is unlikely that the force would get much below 15 brigades by the time Bush leaves office in January.

Bush is unlikely to announce his decision until after Petraeus and the top U.S. diplomat in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, return to Washington next month to report to Congress.

The president is to give a speech today in Ohio on the political and economic situation in Iraq.


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