N. Korea's leader may be sick, U.S. intel reports

WASHINGTON -- U.S. intelligence officials said Tuesday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il may have suffered a serious health problem, amid reports that the 66-year-old dictator had failed to appear at an important celebration of his country's anniversary.

An intelligence official said it appeared that Kim "has suffered a health setback, potentially a stroke." The official said the episode was believed to have occurred in the last couple of weeks, noting that U.S. officials are watching the development closely because of the far-reaching effects it could have on North Korean affairs.

Kim reportedly did not attend a military parade Tuesday marking the 60th anniversary of the country's founding, an event over which he would normally have been expected to preside.

A South Korean newspaper reported that Kim had collapsed Aug. 22, but also said there did not appear to be a panic over his health in the capital, Pyongyang.

Kim's health is intensely watched because he has no heir apparent and the floundering regime could collapse with his passing. He is reported by South Korean intelligence to suffer from diabetes and a heart condition.

Kim's prolonged illness or death could have an important effect on the current international effort to rid North Korea of its nuclear weapons. North Korea's military is strongly opposed to the country's surrendering such arms, and analysts believe its influence would grow if Kim were sidelined or dead.

However, some observers expressed caution about the latest reports of ill health.

"He is going to die sooner or later and eventually one of these reports about his health will be true, but this one is probably much ado about nothing," said Andrei Lankov, a respected Pyongyang watcher and a professor at South Korea's Kookmin University. He said the extreme secrecy about the North Korean regime made it unlikely that either the United States or South Korea had received reliable intelligence about Kim's health.

The North Korean leader's last public appearance was Aug. 14, when he was reported by the state news service to have inspected a military unit.

It is not unusual for the reclusive leader to disappear for months at a time, but his absence at Tuesday's parade was noteworthy because it marked the country's anniversary.

Claiming a heavenly mandate to rule, Kim took over North Korea in 1994 after the death of his father, North Korea's founder, Kim Il Sung, at the age of 82. The transition took place smoothly as the younger Kim had been groomed for decades as his father's successor.

However, Kim Jong Il's sons have spent much of their lives in Switzerland and elsewhere outside of their home country. The older, 37-year-old Kim Jong Nam, fell into disfavor after he was arrested in 2001 on suspicion of sneaking into Japan to visit Disneyland on a fake passport. Two other sons are in their 20s.

"When he does die, it will be havoc because there is no mechanism in place for power transfer," Lankov said. "There will be a lot of contenders for supremacy. Unless we have somebody who will be charismatic, ruthless and popular, we will probably see open clashes in Pyongyang, maybe shooting."