Published: Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Either Obama or McCain likely healthy for a first term
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Associated Press
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (center) participates in an economic roundtable in Des Moines, Iowa, on Tuesday.
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Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (center) greets supporters after a rally at the University of Nevada in Reno, Nev., on Tuesday.
WASHINGTON -- If Sen. John McCain is elected and goes on to win a second term, there's as much as a one-in-four chance America could see its first female president -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.
An Atlanta actuarial company specializing in individualized estimates of life and health expectancy has run the numbers for Republican McCain, 72, and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, 47. The firm, Bragg Associates, calculated the odds of the candidates dying in office, adjusted for their known health problems.
The firm's estimates for McCain and Obama relied on medical information disclosed by the candidates. Bragg Associates has no partisan agenda, said actuary James Brooks: "We don't have a dog in this hunt."
The odds highly favor either McCain or Sen. Barack Obama completing a first term in good health. After that, McCain's odds are still fairly solid, but his chances of dying or being in poor health go up faster than Obama's, mainly because of his age.
McCain would be the oldest president to begin a first term in office. By the end of a second term, Jan. 20, 2017, he would have a 24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama, the firm estimates.
"Can either candidate expect to serve two terms in a healthy state? The answer is yes," Brooks said. "They're both in outstanding health for people of their age."
The firm estimates that McCain has a health expectancy of 8.4 years, while Obama can expect another 21.9 years of good health. The calculations are from January 2009, covering two terms in office for either candidate.
But no one really knows. Actuaries like Brooks make statistical calculations for insurance companies, based on numbers culled from large databases. No matter how sophisticated, they can't predict anyone's future.
Brooks classified Obama as a smoker with minor upper respiratory problems, probably linked to his smoking. Obama announced in February that he was trying to quit smoking again, with the aid of nicotine gum.
"We don't consider you a nonsmoker until you stay quit for 12 months," said Brooks.
In the spring, the Obama campaign released a letter from the candidate's doctor declaring him to be in excellent health. He had very good cholesterol levels, his EKG was normal, his pulse was 60 beats per minute, and his blood pressure was an outstanding 90 over 60.
But Obama has a family history of cancer. His mother died of ovarian cancer and his maternal grandfather died of prostate cancer.
For the Republican, Brooks took into account a history of skin cancer, degenerative arthritis from his Vietnam war injuries, moderately high cholesterol, mild vertigo and that McCain is a former smoker who quit in 1980.
McCain allowed reporters to review eight years of medical records, which show that he is cancer-free, has a strong heart and is generally in good health. As a three-time melanoma survivor, his biggest health worry is a recurrence of that cancer, but he is closely watched by his dermatologist. McCain maintains a healthy weight and blood pressure and takes medication for his cholesterol.
An Atlanta actuarial company specializing in individualized estimates of life and health expectancy has run the numbers for Republican McCain, 72, and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, 47. The firm, Bragg Associates, calculated the odds of the candidates dying in office, adjusted for their known health problems.
The firm's estimates for McCain and Obama relied on medical information disclosed by the candidates. Bragg Associates has no partisan agenda, said actuary James Brooks: "We don't have a dog in this hunt."
The odds highly favor either McCain or Sen. Barack Obama completing a first term in good health. After that, McCain's odds are still fairly solid, but his chances of dying or being in poor health go up faster than Obama's, mainly because of his age.
McCain would be the oldest president to begin a first term in office. By the end of a second term, Jan. 20, 2017, he would have a 24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama, the firm estimates.
"Can either candidate expect to serve two terms in a healthy state? The answer is yes," Brooks said. "They're both in outstanding health for people of their age."
The firm estimates that McCain has a health expectancy of 8.4 years, while Obama can expect another 21.9 years of good health. The calculations are from January 2009, covering two terms in office for either candidate.
But no one really knows. Actuaries like Brooks make statistical calculations for insurance companies, based on numbers culled from large databases. No matter how sophisticated, they can't predict anyone's future.
Brooks classified Obama as a smoker with minor upper respiratory problems, probably linked to his smoking. Obama announced in February that he was trying to quit smoking again, with the aid of nicotine gum.
"We don't consider you a nonsmoker until you stay quit for 12 months," said Brooks.
In the spring, the Obama campaign released a letter from the candidate's doctor declaring him to be in excellent health. He had very good cholesterol levels, his EKG was normal, his pulse was 60 beats per minute, and his blood pressure was an outstanding 90 over 60.
But Obama has a family history of cancer. His mother died of ovarian cancer and his maternal grandfather died of prostate cancer.
For the Republican, Brooks took into account a history of skin cancer, degenerative arthritis from his Vietnam war injuries, moderately high cholesterol, mild vertigo and that McCain is a former smoker who quit in 1980.
McCain allowed reporters to review eight years of medical records, which show that he is cancer-free, has a strong heart and is generally in good health. As a three-time melanoma survivor, his biggest health worry is a recurrence of that cancer, but he is closely watched by his dermatologist. McCain maintains a healthy weight and blood pressure and takes medication for his cholesterol.
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