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A look at the NFC West
Posted
at
12:21 am
This is Part I of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go:
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
State of the team: Frisco fired Mike Nolan on Monday, a day after the 49ers dropped their fourth game in a row. I don’t think anybody was fooled by their 2-1 start, but this team is in free-fall and Mike Singletary is simply a bandage. Mike Martz’s offense has proved – as it did in Detroit – that it can put up big numbers – in the turnover column, that is.
Fantasy playoff schedule: JETS, at Dolphins, at Rams
QB: J.T. O’Sullivan got off to a nice start, but he’s started to look like the guy who has been kicked around seven teams over the past six seasons. He’s averaging just under 200 yards per game and has eight touchdowns in seven games. With three defenses giving up around 230 yards per game, his schedule in the fantasy playoff is favorable. But with a sub-par receiving corps and the team in flux, O’Sullivan isn’t worth owning or playing.
RB: Frank Gore has played well in the first half of the season, averaging 111 yards per game and scoring 4 TDs in seven games. He plays two decent run defenses in the fantasy playoffs – Jets (83 ypg) and the Dolphins (97.5) – and one terrible run defense – St. Louis (161). If you have Gore, ride him. He’s playing well and as the lone bright spot on this team he’ll continue to get the ball. Truly the only tough run defense he faces over the next nine weeks is the Jets.
Receivers: This has been a carousel ride in terms of who is this team’s leading receiver. Isaac Bruce one week, Arnaz Battle the next. Last week it was rookie Josh Morgan, who looked good in scoring a touchdown and posting five catches for 86 yards. I’d say Morgan is really the only guy in this corps worth having going forward, and he’s really only a flex option at that. And as for Bryant Johnson, one of this year’s big sleepers coming into the season, he’s been terrible and is now in the coaching staff’s doghouse. Tight end Vernon Davis had a good game two weeks ago against Philly, but he’s just to inconsistent to trust on a week-to-week basis and as anything but a bye-week replacement.
DefenseThis unit is not good at all and shouldn’t be owned by anybody. They’re giving up 28 points per game and is in the middle of the road with 13 sacks and 10 takeaways with no sign of improvement.
ST. LOUIS RAMS
State of the team: The Rams have looked quite a bit better since firing Scott Linehan and promoting Jim Haslett. The former Saints head coach has brought a fire and life to the team and could help this team reach 6 wins – unthinkable two weeks ago.
Fantasy playoff schedule: at Cardinals, SEAHAWKS, 49ERS
QB: Since being benched for Trent Green, Marc Bulger hasn’t exactly turned it on over the past two weeks despite the team’s two wins. He threw for a paltry 173 yards and a touchdown last week even though his team scored 34 points. This isn’t the Greatest Show on Turf anymore. This is Steven Jackson’s show. If the Rams are going to win it’s going to be on Jackson’s back. The one wild card with Bulger is how the fantasy playoff schedule shapes up. Arizona and Seattle are putrid against the pass, while the 49ers are only holding teams to 217 yards through the air per contest because they’re giving up 122 ypg on the ground. If you need a backup and Bulger’s out there you might want to grab him just because if the Rams’ WR corps improves he may be a nice option in the playoffs.
RB: Here’s to all the fantasy owners who either stuck with Steven Jackson or traded low for him. Jackson went bonkers against the Cowboys and should only get better as the season goes along (remember the Rams opponents during the fantasy playoffs). He did strain his thigh during last week’s game, but apparently is ready to go. (http://tinyurl.com/5lpdj2) He’s an automatic play every week, which is why you drafted him in the first round anyway, right?
Receivers: You have to start wondering if Torry Holt even has it anymore. He’s on pace for a career-low 674 yards and is getting little help from his fellow receivers. Donnie Avery has shown a little bit over the past couple of games, but Holt needs to turn it on. He’s a classic example of an un-injured player struggling in the first half of the season only to turn it on in the second half. Along with Bulger he could really benefit of that weak schedule in Weeks 14-16. As for Avery, he’s not worth anything as long as Holt’s healthy.
DefenseThough the Rams’ defense has played better over the past two weeks it’s still not worth owning in any fantasy league. St. Louis is giving up 29.7 points per game and has 14 sacks and 10 takeaways. You can do better.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
State of the team: The Cardinals are having a surprisingly good season so far and look like a shoo-in to win the NFC West. Kurt Warner is flinging the ball around again, maybe not as well as he did in his heyday, but when he’s not turning the ball over he’s a top-level quarterback again. This team will have some down games, but with Anquan Boldin returning from injury, this offense doesn’t show any signs of slowing down.
Fantasy playoff schedule: RAMS, VIKINGS, at Patriots
QB: The thing about Kurt Warner is, if you play in a league that penalizes players for turnovers, he’s going to kill you at some point. It’s inevitable that he’s going to have a turnover meltdown and starting coughing the ball up like he’s allergic to it. It’s just bound to happen – in fact it’ll probably happen 2-3 times over the next nine weeks. But he’s also going to carry you some weeks (he’s averaging 285 yards and 2 TDs per game), and the way Arizona’s schedule shapes up in the fantasy playoffs he’ll be a good answer at quarterback
RB: Edge James doesn’t seem to have it anymore. He’s lost a step and this season it’s really showing. He’s got one game over 100 yards and is averaging 60 yards per game on the ground. Tim Hightower on the other hand looks like the real deal. The rookie out of Richmond has shown glimpses. He’s also the team’s goalline finisher so that’s a bonus. I think as the second half of the season progresses, Hightower’s carries will increase from about 7-10 to 14-17 per game.
Receivers: Let’s not even discuss Larry Fitzgerald. He’s a must-start every week and because of the way the Arizona playoff schedule shapes up, don’t even think about dealing him. Anquan Boldin’s injury was serious, so it’ll be interesting to see how he comes back. He may be a little skittish about going over the middle anytime soon, but he should be able to post good numbers if he can stay healthy. If you own him keep an eye on him over the next couple three weeks. As for Steve Breaston owners, if Boldin comes back and is his old self then Breaston goes back to being worthless.
DefenseThe Cardinals defense isn’t great, but you could do worse. The Cards are giving up 24 points, nearly two takeaways and three sacks per game. It’s not a unit that’s going to win you a title, however.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
State of the team: The Seahawks are this year’s version of the 2007 Carolina Panthers: Talented, but injuries have killed them, especially to their QB. Remember Carolina, which was favored to win the NFC South last season, went 7-9 after Jake Delhomme went down for the season with an elbow injury. Similarly, Seattle is spiraling out of control and will be out of the race for a fifth-straight NFC West crown if they lose this week against San Francisco. They’ve been hampered by injuries from the receiving corps to their starting quarterback, and the defense has been underachieving. If Matt Hasselbeck can return this week, Seattle has a chance against a San Francisco club in flux and could wiggle their way back into the playoff race. More likely, the Seahawks are headed for a 5-win season with a couple of surprise home wins in November and December.
Fantasy playoff schedule: PATRIOTS, at Rams, JETS
QB: This hasn’t been a good season for Matt Hasselbeck. He hasn’t been right since tweaking his back in the first preseason game, add in the fact he tweaked his knee against the Giants two weeks ago, and has missed the past two games with a bulging disc and he’d undoubtedly like to press the restart button on this campaign. Even before the Giants game, Hasselbeck wasn’t playing all that well. He could cobble together a good showing or two down the stretch, but when? It’s not worth gambling on him.
RB: After two straight 100 yard performances in weeks 2 and 3, Julius Jones was a hot name in fantasy. But now with Maurice Morris back and Hasselbeck out, Jones’s numbers have shrunk over the past two games. He’s basically back to what everybody thought he was before the season: a guy who’s going to get some regular carries poached from him by Morris and goalline carries taken away by T.J. Duckett. He’s really got no upside.
Receivers: As long as Hasselbeck is out, this group isn’t even worth mentioning. When, and if, Hasselbeck returns, Bobby Engram would become a viable flex option in point-per-reception leagues. Deion Branch has to prove he’s not only healthy, but that he can post numbers in this offense consistently. Koren Robinson is a non-factor.
DefenseThe Seahawks defense has been exposed this season. Too many big plays, especially through the air. Seattle is on pace for just 13 takeaways this season after causing 34 a year ago; that’s a shocking dropoff. The 14 sacks is respectable, but eight of those came in one game. Some of the problem can be attributed to the offenses inability, which has forced the defense to spend a lot of time on the field, but at the end of the day this just isn’t a very good unit and isn’t worth owning at this point.
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