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A look at the AFC West
Posted
at
3:10 pm
This is Part VII of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go:
DENVER BRONCOS
State of the team: The AFC West is nearly as bad as the NFC version. Denver leads the division despite having lost three straight. The Broncos, who are 4-4, have a talented offense led by Jay Cutler, but its defense is porous. Denver may make the playoffs as the division winner – only San Diego has a chance to unseat the Broncos – but its defense is just too easy to score on to do any damage once there.
Fantasy playoff schedule: CHIEFS, at Panthers, BILLS
QB: Cutler started the season on fire, throwing for more than 300 yards in three of the first four games. But he’s tailed off recently, failing to throw for more than 200 yards in the past two games before Sunday’s game against Miami . Cutler has also started to make mistakes. He threw three interceptions against the Dolphins, giving him six in the past three games. But Cutler has solidified himself as a must-start. Denver ’s running game is struggling and the Broncos have shifted to a pass-heavy attack, making Cutler a good play on a weekly basis. Expect his averages (271 ypg/2 TDpg) to keep up for the remainder of the season.
RB: This unit is a mess. Selvin Young missed his third game in a row with a groin injury; Michael Pittman re-injured his neck; Andre Hall can’t seem to hang on to the ball; and Ryan Torain, who rushed for 1 yard on three carries in his first game of the season Sunday, doesn’t look ready to take over the role. There’s been a lot of hype over Torain, and he’s likely not on the waiver wire in your league anymore, but he’s got to prove something before he can be trusted. Even if he does show promise, Mike Shanahan will mix in a few carries to Hall, and Young and Pittman when they return from injury. I don’t think Torain is going to be able to put up good enough numbers to be effective.
Receivers: Brandon Marshall has had an interesting season. He missed the first two games, came back and went nuts in the next two (totaling 24 catches, 221 yards and two TDs) and then has had three decent games and two stinkers since, including Sunday’s performance (2/27/0). But the guy had a borderline push-off penalty kill a 77-yard touchdown grab Sunday and he’s healthy so he stays in everybody’s lineup. Eddie Royal has been a pleasant surprise. The rookie out of Virginia Tech is averaging nearly six cpg and 66 ypg and his three TDs has made him a great No. 3 WR or flex option. He’s not consistent enough to use as a usual No. 2, though. Brandon Stokley is the obvious third option on this team and isn’t making any rosters. TE Tony Scheffler had a breakout game in Week 2 (6/64/2) and caught four passes in two of the next three games, but a groin injury has sidelined him for the past three games. When he gets back he’s not a bad option if you’re desperate at TE.
Defense The Broncos are giving up a lot of points and not forcing many turnovers and they lost their best linebacker D.J. Williams to a knee injury. Avoid this unit at all costs.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
State of the team: The Chargers are lucky they’re in the terrible AFC West, otherwise they might be done. Not only are they just a game behind Denver, but they face the terrible Chiefs and Raiders three times over the final nine games and have the Broncos at home in the regular season finale in a revenge game. That gives them four wins, which means they just have to pick up two wins against Atlanta or Indianapolis at home or Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay on the road to make it to 9-7. My guess is the AFC West crown comes down to that final game – and San Diego will NOT lose that game.
Fantasy playoff schedule: RAIDERS, at Chiefs, at Buccaneers
QB: San Diego’s defense hasn’t been very good and LaDainian Tomlinson has been gimpy with a banged up big toe, which has all added up to great numbers for Philip Rivers. The Chargers QB is averaging more than 254 ypg and nearly 2.5 TDs pg, which is a huge upgrade over last season when he averaged 197 ypg and threw just 21 TDs for the season (he’s got 19 through eight games this season). I’d expect Rivers’ numbers to go down over the final eight games, though. Tomlinson looks like he’s getting healthy again and the Chargers defense will likely play better with Ron Rivera in charge and Ted Cottrell gone. Rivers will have a few 300/3 games over the final eight, but he’s probably going to average closer to 200 ypg and a throw for 12 TDs over the final eight games.
RB: Tomlinson owners had to be encouraged by his Week 8 performance when he ran for 105 yards and caught five balls for 65 yards and a score. It was by far his best game of an injury plagued season. But expect his numbers to go up from here on out. LT averaged 140 total ypg and had eight TDs between Week 10-16 last season to lead many fantasy teams to a title. Expect similar numbers over the next six weeks. As always, he’s a must-play as long as he’s healthy. Darren Sproles is only useful if Tomlinson is injured.
Receivers: Antonio Gates is on his usual pace. He’s on pace to catch 60 balls for 800 yards and 10 TD. When you drafted him that’s what you expected, so continue to play him with confidence. Chris Chambers started the season off well, catching four touchdowns in the first three games. But he’s caught only one TD and missed two games over the final five. He caught five passes for 47 yards in the London game two weeks ago and he is what he is at this point: a mediocre No. 3 WR or flex option, nothing more. Vincent Jackson is the better option here. The fourth-year WR is averaging 67 ypg and has scored a TD in the past three games. He’s got a good rapport with Rivers and he’s consistent enough to get in your lineup as a great No. 3 WR or flex option.
Defense With 17 sacks and 10 turnovers, San Diego is right in the middle of fantasy defenses. But with Rivera taking over, expect the Chargers to start turning up the heat. If you need a defense, try them out, especially against the Chiefs, Raiders, Falcons and Bucs.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
State of the team: The Chiefs aren’t just a bad team but a team that knows how to lose badly. Two weeks in a row, Kansas City has snatched a loss from the grasp of victory, losing to the Jets and Tampa Bay on the final drive. The only good thing you can say is that at least they were competitive, unlike their previous two losses: a 34-0 thrashing at the hands of Carolina and a 34-10 manhandling by the Titans. There’s really only three possible wins left on the schedule and I say they only get two of those, finishing the season 3-13 and possibly securing next year’s No. 1 pick and the firing of head coach Herman Edwards and GM Carl Petersen.
Fantasy playoff schedule: at Broncos, CHARGERS, DOLPHINS
QB: The Chiefs have spent the season playing quarterback roulette. They started out with Brodie Croyle, who struggled and then got hurt, moved to Damon Huard, who also got hurt, and now seem to have settled on Tyler Thigpen. The second-year player out of Coastal Carolina had a strong outing against the Jets (280/2), and even caught a TD against the Bucs last week, but hopefully your QB situation isn’t like the Chiefs and you’ve had to resort to even thinking about picking up Thigpen. Avoid at all costs.
RB: Larry Johnson owners, who likely took the enigmatic back in the second round of their fantasy draft, saw a little light at the end of the tunnel when he ran for 121 yards in Week 3 and then put up a colossal 198 yards the next week. But then reality hit. Johnson ran for two yards (yeah, two!) against Carolina, and then got into a spot of bother over the bye and hasn’t seen the field since. It was announced Tuesday that Johnson will miss Sunday’s game after commish Roger Goodell put the hammer down. It’s tough to really give advice to Johnson owners. On the one hand, he could be back next week, get his old job back and put up decent numbers down the stretch. On the other, he could return and be a sent to the bench because of his bad behavior and attitude. I’d bet that Edwards plays Johnson because the dude’s job is on the line and Johnson is better than Jamaal Charles, who has been decent in his stead, including last week’s 106 yard performance. Throw in the fact that Johnson’s trade value has never been lower and you have a bad situation. The only thing Johnson owners can do is sit on him, hope he comes back, and the Chiefs’ offense returns to pounding the rock like it did in Weeks 3 and 4. Hey at least he’s got Denver’s porous defense in the first week of the fantasy playoffs..
Receivers: Dwayne Bowe has proven this season that he’s the real deal. Last season he showed that he had the talent, but this year, even though the Chiefs are throwing everybody short of Joe the Plumber behind center, Bowe has continued to put up solid numbers. Through eight games he’s averaging more than 5 catches and 67 yards per contest. He’s also got three scores. In this offense that’s fantastic. He’s not going to have a 150/2 TD kind of game with Thigpen behind center, but he’s a solid option for a No. 2 wideout as of now – if K.C. got a real quarterback he’d automatically become a No. 1 guy. Despite two decent performances over the past two games, Mark Bradley is worthless. Tony Gonzalez has shown that he’s still got it and that even the Chiefs trio of idiots at QB can’t keep him down. He’s no longer the best TE in the league, but you drafted Gonzalez to play him, so do it.
Defense This team can cause turnovers, but it can’t seem to get to the quarterback. Kansas City has caused an astonishing 18 turnovers, but has a laughable four sacks. It’s giving up an average of more than 27 ppg. Avoid.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
State of the team: I’ll tell you right now I don’t want to waste time so we’re going to spend as little amout of time on this crackerjack organization as possible. This offense is pathetic. The defense is OK, but they’re on the field way too much to be effective down the stretch of games. Frankly I’m surprised they have two wins, which is what they’ll likely finish the season with (you look at their schedule and tell me what game they win). Until Al Davis gives up control over player personnel decisions this team will remain the laughingstock of the NFL, which is fine with me.
Fantasy playoff schedule: at Chargers, PATRIOTS, TEXANS
QB: I mean seriously. Let’s just move on before I make Raiders fans even more angry. This is the same guy that just threw for 31 yards against Atlanta. I think he’s regressing under this coaching staff. Forget about it. In fact, rumors are already swirling about Mike Vick taking over this team in 2009. Hey it can’t hurt.
RB: Darren McFadden, Michael Bush and Justin Fargas have all shown glimpses of good things this season. But they’ve also all missed time due to injury, completely disappeared at others, and are all sharing carries. Just like the organization they play for, there’s not enough consistency here to own any of these guys.
Receivers: You have to have somebody who can throw the ball to have promising receivers to catch it. Javon Walker, Chaz Schilens, Ronald Curry – all worthless. The only redeeming receiver on this entire team is Zack Miller, who is averaging nearly 40 ypg, because he’s tight end.
Defense The Raiders give up a lot of points, but because their counterparts on the offensive side of the ball are so bad, they’re on the field a lot. Due to that they have a respectable 19 sacks and 12 turnovers. Even though they’re overdue to score a couple of touchdowns down the stretch, I still can’t bring myself to recommend them.
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