Nation & World

<< Previous   of   Next >>   ADVERTISEMENT   Related Stories • 1 million expected at Obama inauguration 11/14/08   CONTACT THE HERALD Do you have a news tip? newstips@heraldnet.com | 425.339.3400   Published: Monday, November 10, 2008 Al-Qaida may try to test Obama early By Sebastian Rotella Los Angeles Times MADRID, Spain -- Amid the focus on wars that President-elect Obama will inherit in Iraq and Afghanistan, a third conflict gets less attention: the shadow-war against stateless networks of Islamic extremists. Terror greeted the past two presidents early in their terms. President Clinton faced the first bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993 and President Bush the world-changing attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. "I fear al-Qaida could try to test Obama," said a top Italian anti-terror official who asked to remain anonymous because of the political sensitivity of the issue. A weaker al-Qaida, tighter U.S. borders and the apparent lack of U.S. support networks make a new strike on American soil unlikely, though not impossible, according to Western anti-terror officials. Instead, the foremost scenario is an attack on U.S. targets in Europe similar to the alleged foiled plots against American troops in Germany last year and transatlantic flights from London in 2006. Security officials worry particularly about al-Qaida recruits returning to Britain and other Western countries from Pakistani training compounds. The new administration also will face the threat of attacks, training hubs and radicalization in locales ranging from Somalia to Yemen to Western Europe, the front line for a new generation of homegrown militants, Western investigators say. As he takes office, Obama will inherit strong anti-terror alliances. Many European investigations today grow out of shared U.S. intercepts of online communications, leads made possible because most Internet servers are based in the United States. Cross-border teamwork has driven cases such as the roundup this year in Barcelona of an alleged Pakistani terror cell that was infiltrated by a French undercover operative with the help of Spanish and American spies. "Even during the worst times of diplomatic conflict over Iraq, close cooperation continued because it was in everybody's interests," said French security consultant Louis Caprioli, former counter-terror chief of the DST, the nation's lead intelligence agency. Obama, who had his first secret intelligence briefing in Chicago on Thursday, has called for U.S. forces to go after al-Qaida leaders in the badlands of northwest Pakistan if the government in Islamabad fails to do so. Experts predict that President Bush will press the hunt for Osama bin Laden and his deputies in hopes of a last-minute triumph. "It looks like they want to eliminate as many al-Qaida figures as possible to go out with history on their side," said academic and former CIA officer Marc Sageman, now scholar-in-residence at the New York Police Department. Sageman contends that "al-Qaida has been on the ropes for a while. ... There are not many of them: Maybe two dozen leaders, about 200 (veteran militants) who have been around since the 1980s. And it seems they are being picked off one by one." But Pakistani leaders complain that American airstrikes violate their sovereignty and worsen instability in a nation beset by economic and security crises. Looking elsewhere, experts cite some familiar threats and other new ones. An emerging concern: the Islamic Jihad Union, a rival offshoot of al-Qaida that operates in the same semi-autonomous tribal regions of northwest Pakistan. The IJU allegedly directed a group of German converts and Turks arrested last year for plotting to bomb U.S. military targets in Germany. Last month, German police asked for the public's help in tracking down another IJU-trained convert who is considered dangerous and has posted videos on Turkish Web sites, a reflection of the Uzbek-dominated group's appeal to speakers of Turkic languages. "It is a splinter organization trying to make its mark," said Sageman. "The only way to do that, to make their mark, is to do an attack. There is an internal rivalry among terror groups. The IJU wants to claim to be the new al-Qaida." Other hot spots include Yemen, the Sahel region of northern Africa and war-torn Somalia, where an increasing number of foreign radicals go to train, officials said. Activity also has picked up in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia as the Balkans become a refuge for foreign militants who fought in Iraq, the Italian anti-terror official said. Spy agencies have become good at detecting plots in the making. But the Obama administration will inherit a persistent nightmare: self-radicalized cells that form with minimal links to established networks and strikes without warning. The Muslim immigrant doctors on trial for attempted bombings in London in 2007 illustrate such a scenario. Sageman argues that autonomous, Internet-driven groups are the threat of the future. In the larger war of ideas, some experts say the election of Obama serves as ammunition against extremist propaganda. "If the fact that the grandson of a Kenyan goatherd becomes president of the United States does not undermine the 'jihadi' message that the United States is unjust and oppressive, I don't know what will," Sageman said. Caprioli, for his part, points out that many Islamic fundamentalists see the president-elect, a Christian, as an apostate because he did not adopt his African family's Muslim faith. "They will judge him on his policies, not on his identity," Caprioli said. READER COMMENTS Be the first to comment. You must be a registered user and verify your e-mail address to post comments to blogs or articles on HeraldNet. To register, click here. To read other terms and conditions, click here. Log out

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