Published: Tuesday, November 11, 2008
State Republicans look ahead to 2012
Attorney General Rob McKenna could be next top candidate
Republican leaders pained by the defeat of Dino Rossi say their party must restore its image among voters and sharpen its campaign tactics if it hopes to escape its extended electoral funk.
They do point out the election was not all bad news: the party may increase its ranks in the Legislature with the unseating of incumbent Democrats in both chambers.
And the GOP is already shifting its sights from Rossi to Attorney General Rob McKenna, the state's highest ranking Republican officeholder and very possibly its gubernatorial candidate in 2012.
"As a party, do we need to take a cold hard look at where we go next? You bet," said Kevin Carns, executive director of the House Republican Organizational Committee, the political arm of the legislative caucus.
"Do we have to totally change direction? No, because nobody has pointed out what we could have done differently. Honestly, we held back a tidal wave," he said.
Post-election hand-wringing and self-analysis is routine for those at the helm and on the decks of the state's two major political parties.
Election Day's outcomes raise issues for both parties, for sure.
Democrats, for example, might wonder why they didn't win more legislative seats given the huge turnout of supporters of Barack Obama, the ticket's leader at the national level.
Republicans face tougher and sharper questions because a string of poor performances in recent years has them at one of their weakest points of power-sharing in state history.
This year, the GOP lost its grip on the statewide office of public lands commissioner when Doug Sutherland failed to win re-election.
But the party is enjoying easy re-election victories by McKenna and Secretary of State Sam Reed, and relishing U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert's hard-fought win to keep his 8th District congressional seat.
And in the Legislature, Republicans began Election Day outnumbered in the Senate 32-17 and the House 63-35.
As of Monday, the party had picked up one seat in the Senate and could snag two in the House when all the votes are counted. Already Republican Kevin Parker has upended Rep. Don Barlow, D-Spokane, the first incumbent House Democrat unseated in nearly a decade. If Republican Mike Hope winds up beating Rep. Liz Loomis, D-Snohomish, the party would gain another chair in the House.
That all makes for a silver lining in the dark cloud of Rossi's defeat.
"For the past five years, Dino Rossi has been the hope for the Republican Party. Now where do you go?" said Chris Vance, chairman of the state GOP when Rossi ran in 2004. "The Republican Party is going to have to start all over again."
Alex Hays, executive director of Mainstream Republicans of Washington, said that's "preposterous."
"This election was a national election. Under normal circumstances, Rossi would win, we'd pick up seats and the Republican Party would have had one of their best years," he said.
Influential Republicans, with Hays among them, say adjustments, not an overhaul, are needed for the party to enjoy winning more often.
"We should not be overly distraught," said Luke Esser, chairman of the state Republican Party. "I don't think there is any one reason why we're not as successful as we want."
Esser, who has not decided whether to seek another term in January, said it's pivotal the "tarnish" brought upon the Republican Party at the national level be wiped away.
"If we do that, we will regain our brand name," he said.
In this state, differences in philosophy and tactics among the faithful continue to impede ballot box success.
It's an "identity crisis" between pro-business Republicans of Bellevue and social issue-driven voices in Eastern Washington, said Paul Berendt, former chairman of the state Democratic Party.
"It's gone from the country club to the social conservative and they've never been about to reconcile that," he said.
That's a lingering dilemma party moderates like former Republican Gov. Dan Evans have encountered for some time.
"We need to rethink what our message is and should be. We need to broaden our appeal," said Evans, who served from 1965-77. "If you can't win elections, you can't govern. We have been far too narrow in our approach in recent years."
Republicans need to stress economic principles and a commitment to expanding and aiding the free enterprise system, he said.
"We fail when we start getting tied up in social issues," he said.
Focusing on the wrong policies has cost the party in the populated areas of Snohomish, King and Pierce counties.
"It's foolishness that the Republican Party has basically lost the support of much of the Puget Sound. That should be our strength," Evans said.
Republican leaders said the party needs to recruit more candidates who better represent the communities they wish to serve.
"You cannot get one mold of the candidate for every single office," Evans said. "The kind of candidate that will win in the farm country of Eastern Washington is not the kind of candidate who will win the suburban crescent of the Puget Sound."
In legislative races, Republicans admit they've been bested by House Speaker Frank Chopp.
The party improved on this front this election, said Republican Eric Earling of Lynnwood, a conservative blogger.
"The (Republican) candidates that are winning this time are good candidates," he said. "They were talking about the issue the voters cared about and that's been a criticism of some candidates in the past."
The lopsided wins racked up by social moderates McKenna and Reed provides a formula for success statewide, Hays said.
"It was really good to be a pro-choice, centrist Republican on the ballot this year. Dino Rossi is half of that, he is a centrist," he said.
In Snohomish County, candidate recruitment has gone poorly.
Last year, the local party recruited a professional magician to run against Democratic County Executive Aaron Reardon. At the time, Republican leaders outside the county called it embarrassing and insufferable.
Earling said that was an exception, as former county Sheriff Rick Bart was the candidate, then pulled out, leaving the party no time to find someone willing to challenge incumbent Democrat Aaron Reardon.
Recruiting is more difficult when the party is not winning. Potential candidates need convincing they have a chance to succeed if they give up their job to run.
If Rossi won, it would have been easier, said the head of the Republican Party's strongest ally.
"A victory would have brought Republicans out of the woodwork. This long in the wilderness is a difficult thing for any party," said Tom McCabe, vice president of the Building Industry Association of Washington, which spent several million dollars opposing Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire.
McCabe said it feels a bit like 1992 when Democrats swept into power across the country. Two years later, many got swept out, including in Washington where the GOP gained its last majority in the House of Representatives.
"I think it will be a lot easier for Republicans to recruit candidates when the Democratic governor and Democratic Legislature have low popularity when they raise taxes enormously," he said. "And they will have to do it."
Reporter Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
They do point out the election was not all bad news: the party may increase its ranks in the Legislature with the unseating of incumbent Democrats in both chambers.
And the GOP is already shifting its sights from Rossi to Attorney General Rob McKenna, the state's highest ranking Republican officeholder and very possibly its gubernatorial candidate in 2012.
"As a party, do we need to take a cold hard look at where we go next? You bet," said Kevin Carns, executive director of the House Republican Organizational Committee, the political arm of the legislative caucus.
"Do we have to totally change direction? No, because nobody has pointed out what we could have done differently. Honestly, we held back a tidal wave," he said.
Post-election hand-wringing and self-analysis is routine for those at the helm and on the decks of the state's two major political parties.
Election Day's outcomes raise issues for both parties, for sure.
Democrats, for example, might wonder why they didn't win more legislative seats given the huge turnout of supporters of Barack Obama, the ticket's leader at the national level.
Republicans face tougher and sharper questions because a string of poor performances in recent years has them at one of their weakest points of power-sharing in state history.
This year, the GOP lost its grip on the statewide office of public lands commissioner when Doug Sutherland failed to win re-election.
But the party is enjoying easy re-election victories by McKenna and Secretary of State Sam Reed, and relishing U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert's hard-fought win to keep his 8th District congressional seat.
And in the Legislature, Republicans began Election Day outnumbered in the Senate 32-17 and the House 63-35.
As of Monday, the party had picked up one seat in the Senate and could snag two in the House when all the votes are counted. Already Republican Kevin Parker has upended Rep. Don Barlow, D-Spokane, the first incumbent House Democrat unseated in nearly a decade. If Republican Mike Hope winds up beating Rep. Liz Loomis, D-Snohomish, the party would gain another chair in the House.
That all makes for a silver lining in the dark cloud of Rossi's defeat.
"For the past five years, Dino Rossi has been the hope for the Republican Party. Now where do you go?" said Chris Vance, chairman of the state GOP when Rossi ran in 2004. "The Republican Party is going to have to start all over again."
Alex Hays, executive director of Mainstream Republicans of Washington, said that's "preposterous."
"This election was a national election. Under normal circumstances, Rossi would win, we'd pick up seats and the Republican Party would have had one of their best years," he said.
Influential Republicans, with Hays among them, say adjustments, not an overhaul, are needed for the party to enjoy winning more often.
"We should not be overly distraught," said Luke Esser, chairman of the state Republican Party. "I don't think there is any one reason why we're not as successful as we want."
Esser, who has not decided whether to seek another term in January, said it's pivotal the "tarnish" brought upon the Republican Party at the national level be wiped away.
"If we do that, we will regain our brand name," he said.
In this state, differences in philosophy and tactics among the faithful continue to impede ballot box success.
It's an "identity crisis" between pro-business Republicans of Bellevue and social issue-driven voices in Eastern Washington, said Paul Berendt, former chairman of the state Democratic Party.
"It's gone from the country club to the social conservative and they've never been about to reconcile that," he said.
That's a lingering dilemma party moderates like former Republican Gov. Dan Evans have encountered for some time.
"We need to rethink what our message is and should be. We need to broaden our appeal," said Evans, who served from 1965-77. "If you can't win elections, you can't govern. We have been far too narrow in our approach in recent years."
Republicans need to stress economic principles and a commitment to expanding and aiding the free enterprise system, he said.
"We fail when we start getting tied up in social issues," he said.
Focusing on the wrong policies has cost the party in the populated areas of Snohomish, King and Pierce counties.
"It's foolishness that the Republican Party has basically lost the support of much of the Puget Sound. That should be our strength," Evans said.
Republican leaders said the party needs to recruit more candidates who better represent the communities they wish to serve.
"You cannot get one mold of the candidate for every single office," Evans said. "The kind of candidate that will win in the farm country of Eastern Washington is not the kind of candidate who will win the suburban crescent of the Puget Sound."
In legislative races, Republicans admit they've been bested by House Speaker Frank Chopp.
The party improved on this front this election, said Republican Eric Earling of Lynnwood, a conservative blogger.
"The (Republican) candidates that are winning this time are good candidates," he said. "They were talking about the issue the voters cared about and that's been a criticism of some candidates in the past."
The lopsided wins racked up by social moderates McKenna and Reed provides a formula for success statewide, Hays said.
"It was really good to be a pro-choice, centrist Republican on the ballot this year. Dino Rossi is half of that, he is a centrist," he said.
In Snohomish County, candidate recruitment has gone poorly.
Last year, the local party recruited a professional magician to run against Democratic County Executive Aaron Reardon. At the time, Republican leaders outside the county called it embarrassing and insufferable.
Earling said that was an exception, as former county Sheriff Rick Bart was the candidate, then pulled out, leaving the party no time to find someone willing to challenge incumbent Democrat Aaron Reardon.
Recruiting is more difficult when the party is not winning. Potential candidates need convincing they have a chance to succeed if they give up their job to run.
If Rossi won, it would have been easier, said the head of the Republican Party's strongest ally.
"A victory would have brought Republicans out of the woodwork. This long in the wilderness is a difficult thing for any party," said Tom McCabe, vice president of the Building Industry Association of Washington, which spent several million dollars opposing Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire.
McCabe said it feels a bit like 1992 when Democrats swept into power across the country. Two years later, many got swept out, including in Washington where the GOP gained its last majority in the House of Representatives.
"I think it will be a lot easier for Republicans to recruit candidates when the Democratic governor and Democratic Legislature have low popularity when they raise taxes enormously," he said. "And they will have to do it."
Reporter Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
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