Published: Tuesday, December 30, 2008
What's worse: Taxes or cuts?
State lawmakers facing a deficit could ask you to decide by putting a tax hike on the ballot
OLYMPIA -- Voters are probably the best, and only, option for lawmakers who think higher taxes will be needed to avert deep cuts in spending on education and social services.
Politically and mathematically, it will be easier to ask the electorate for help than attempt to convince Gov. Chris Gregoire to change her mind on the subject.
Gregoire made plain her opposition to increasing taxes or fees to erase a nearly $6 billion deficit and balance the next state budget.
Instead she would slash roughly $3.5 billion in spending, borrow from the lottery and other funds and count on a big check from the federal government to make ends meet in the 2009-11 two-year budget cycle.
Next month, lawmakers will start drafting their own spending plan to send her for signing and could attach legislation for tax or fee increases.
But it will be tough to do so because such bills must be passed by a two-thirds majority in each chamber before being sent to the governor for her signature.
At this point, Rep. Mark Ericks, D-Bothell, said he doesn't count enough votes for tax increases in the caucus of his majority Democrats.
"We're in an economic crisis, and the question of how we maneuver through it is our challenge," said Ericks, who is vice-chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which will draft the chamber's budget.
Democrats would need votes from Republicans to reach a supermajority, which, at this point, appears improbable.
"I don't think there would be one person in my caucus who would vote to (raise taxes)," said Rep. Kirk Pearson, R-Monroe.
Gregoire has not said explicitly she'd veto a tax bill if it made it to her desk. She has made abundantly clear she doesn't want to see such legislation, nor does she think lawmakers can muster the supermajority to pass it.
More likely, Democratic lawmakers will go to the ballot with one or more plans for raising revenues. They only need a simple majority -- 50 percent plus one -- to pass legislation putting such measures on a statewide ballot. What's more, these bills bypass the governor completely.
"If that's what they choose to do, that's what they choose to do," Gregoire told reporters earlier this month.
Ericks won't rule out a decision late in the session to put a revenue-raising measure on the ballot.
"I think there's an expectation that before any discussion of asking the public whether they want to raise taxes, we will articulate efficiencies in government operations and a realistic view of what the impact of any cuts will be," he said.
"If it came down to laying off teachers and cutting higher-education programs to the point that we felt it would do harm to our children, then I would see nothing wrong with asking voters if they want to OK some sort of revenue increase," Ericks said.
In March, the governor and Legislature will receive the next forecast of how much tax revenue is anticipated for the next budget.
If it shows little change from the November report, any push for higher taxes could wilt. If another drop in expected revenues is predicted, that will mean the deficit would grow and with it the worries of lawmakers.
"I think there's a sense no one wants to talk about raising taxes right now," said Rep. Mike Sells, D-Everett. "If the deficit goes to $7 billion, we're going to have to do that."
Generally, voters are sour on new or higher taxes. In passing Initiative 960 last year, voters clamped down on lawmakers by making them reach a two-thirds majority to pass any increase in fees or taxes.
Yet voters will pass initiatives they know will cost money -- even when the measures contain no source of funds to pay for them.
In 2000, it was initiatives 728 and 732 that were passed to reduce the number of students in classes and give teachers annual raises respectively. This year, voters approved Initiative 1029 requiring more training for health care workers.
The electorate isn't always averse to taxing itself. In November, Sound Transit secured voter approval of a higher sales tax throughout much of Snohomish, King and Pierce counties to pay for an expansion of light rail.
And voters do not always get rid of taxes when given the chance. Since 2005, they've rejected ballot measures aimed at erasing an increase in the gas tax and the estate tax.
This mixed history is why Democrats won't close the door on the idea of going to voters to raise revenues in 2009.
Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, D-Spokane, told civic and business leaders at a gathering in Spokane earlier this month, "I think success only lies in a dialogue with the public, and in probably placing some proposals forward to the public. And if they say no, then we go back to the drawing board."
Plenty of folks want lawmakers to consider ways to raise money, including members of unions representing teachers, public employees and health care workers, and nonprofit agencies serving seniors, homeless people and the working poor. They say Gregoire's budget will cause pain for students, workers and the most vulnerable residents of the state.
One progressive think tank, the Economic Opportunity Institute, suggested several means of generating cash, including an income tax on those earning more than $200,000 a year.
"It is critically important to put everything on the table, including new revenue," said Marilyn Watkins, executive director of the Seattle-based research organization.
Going to the voters "is a very good likelihood" next year, she said. Success will hinge on whether it is clear how and where money will be spent.
"We have seen time and again the people in this state have been willing to step up if they are provided a thoughtful proposal," she said.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Herald Reporter Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
Politically and mathematically, it will be easier to ask the electorate for help than attempt to convince Gov. Chris Gregoire to change her mind on the subject.
Gregoire made plain her opposition to increasing taxes or fees to erase a nearly $6 billion deficit and balance the next state budget.
Instead she would slash roughly $3.5 billion in spending, borrow from the lottery and other funds and count on a big check from the federal government to make ends meet in the 2009-11 two-year budget cycle.
Next month, lawmakers will start drafting their own spending plan to send her for signing and could attach legislation for tax or fee increases.
But it will be tough to do so because such bills must be passed by a two-thirds majority in each chamber before being sent to the governor for her signature.
At this point, Rep. Mark Ericks, D-Bothell, said he doesn't count enough votes for tax increases in the caucus of his majority Democrats.
"We're in an economic crisis, and the question of how we maneuver through it is our challenge," said Ericks, who is vice-chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which will draft the chamber's budget.
Democrats would need votes from Republicans to reach a supermajority, which, at this point, appears improbable.
"I don't think there would be one person in my caucus who would vote to (raise taxes)," said Rep. Kirk Pearson, R-Monroe.
Gregoire has not said explicitly she'd veto a tax bill if it made it to her desk. She has made abundantly clear she doesn't want to see such legislation, nor does she think lawmakers can muster the supermajority to pass it.
More likely, Democratic lawmakers will go to the ballot with one or more plans for raising revenues. They only need a simple majority -- 50 percent plus one -- to pass legislation putting such measures on a statewide ballot. What's more, these bills bypass the governor completely.
"If that's what they choose to do, that's what they choose to do," Gregoire told reporters earlier this month.
Ericks won't rule out a decision late in the session to put a revenue-raising measure on the ballot.
"I think there's an expectation that before any discussion of asking the public whether they want to raise taxes, we will articulate efficiencies in government operations and a realistic view of what the impact of any cuts will be," he said.
"If it came down to laying off teachers and cutting higher-education programs to the point that we felt it would do harm to our children, then I would see nothing wrong with asking voters if they want to OK some sort of revenue increase," Ericks said.
In March, the governor and Legislature will receive the next forecast of how much tax revenue is anticipated for the next budget.
If it shows little change from the November report, any push for higher taxes could wilt. If another drop in expected revenues is predicted, that will mean the deficit would grow and with it the worries of lawmakers.
"I think there's a sense no one wants to talk about raising taxes right now," said Rep. Mike Sells, D-Everett. "If the deficit goes to $7 billion, we're going to have to do that."
Generally, voters are sour on new or higher taxes. In passing Initiative 960 last year, voters clamped down on lawmakers by making them reach a two-thirds majority to pass any increase in fees or taxes.
Yet voters will pass initiatives they know will cost money -- even when the measures contain no source of funds to pay for them.
In 2000, it was initiatives 728 and 732 that were passed to reduce the number of students in classes and give teachers annual raises respectively. This year, voters approved Initiative 1029 requiring more training for health care workers.
The electorate isn't always averse to taxing itself. In November, Sound Transit secured voter approval of a higher sales tax throughout much of Snohomish, King and Pierce counties to pay for an expansion of light rail.
And voters do not always get rid of taxes when given the chance. Since 2005, they've rejected ballot measures aimed at erasing an increase in the gas tax and the estate tax.
This mixed history is why Democrats won't close the door on the idea of going to voters to raise revenues in 2009.
Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, D-Spokane, told civic and business leaders at a gathering in Spokane earlier this month, "I think success only lies in a dialogue with the public, and in probably placing some proposals forward to the public. And if they say no, then we go back to the drawing board."
Plenty of folks want lawmakers to consider ways to raise money, including members of unions representing teachers, public employees and health care workers, and nonprofit agencies serving seniors, homeless people and the working poor. They say Gregoire's budget will cause pain for students, workers and the most vulnerable residents of the state.
One progressive think tank, the Economic Opportunity Institute, suggested several means of generating cash, including an income tax on those earning more than $200,000 a year.
"It is critically important to put everything on the table, including new revenue," said Marilyn Watkins, executive director of the Seattle-based research organization.
Going to the voters "is a very good likelihood" next year, she said. Success will hinge on whether it is clear how and where money will be spent.
"We have seen time and again the people in this state have been willing to step up if they are provided a thoughtful proposal," she said.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Herald Reporter Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
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