Legislature's $6 billion problem

OLYMPIA -- Lawmakers expect frustration, heartbreak and opportunity will make the 2009 session that starts Monday a journey like none they've ever experienced before.

They will arrive exhausted, like their communities, from the deluges of snow, then floods of rain.

They will still be coping with the recent loss of two legislative colleagues.

And they must deal with a budget deficit larger than any other in state history ­-- and still growing -- without a manual on how.

Erasing the shortfall now estimated at $5.7 billion will force legislators, especially the majority Democrats, to do something for which they are unaccustomed -- cutting government spending for their most prized programs.

"It will be heartbreaking. We don't have any money. We simply don't have any money," said Rep. Maralyn Chase, D-Shoreline.

Friday's news of mass layoffs at the Boeing Co., one of Washington's signature businesses, and possible shutdown of one of its oldest daily newspapers, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, means the situation will worsen before improving.

It should mean a different mood prevails in the House of Representatives and the Senate than in recent years.

"I anticipate a fair amount of caution and a little less bravado just because we can't afford it," said Rep. Mary Helen Roberts, D-Lynnwood.

The public will be watching to see how those they elected react, lawmakers said.

"You can look at the situation as grim," said Sen. Jean Berkey, D-Everett. "Or you can say, 'Gee, we have an opportunity' because sometimes adversity will force you to change things that need to be changed."

Republicans said they stand ready to make hard decisions to curb the state's appetite for spending. They are not prepared to balance the budget with new fees and an appeal to voters to raise taxes.

"We know what we have before us. I'm not going down to be an obstructionist," said Rep. Kirk Pearson, R-Monroe. "This is a time when we cannot go in and start raising taxes. It's an opportunity to show people we can be good leaders."

First step

The first task is not the future deficit but a present one.

Lawmakers must plug a $500 million hole in the current budget, the result of tumbling revenues since they adjourned last March.

When that's done, they will focus on enacting new spending plans for government operations, capital construction and transportation. The state adopts two-year budgets, so these will cover the period of July 1, 2009, to June 30, 2011.

The biggest challenge is getting rid of the multibillion dollars of red ink predicted in the next operating budget.

Roughly $30 billion in revenue is expected, at this point, to trickle into the general fund in those two years.

But the state would need closer to $36 billion to do everything it needs to do and everything the Democratic majority wanted to do at this time last year.

The difference includes the cost of increased numbers of students and prisoners and maintaining all state services and programs at existing levels.

It also includes pay raises negotiated with teacher and employee unions and money for new ventures such as offering all-day kindergarten at more schools and providing all workers with paid leave for caring for family members.

Gov. Chris Gregoire's proposed budget doesn't cover the wage hikes and new programs and it cuts spending in every agency. She's said there would be something in her proposal for everyone to hate, and that's proven true with most of her political allies.

She did not include any new taxes. Lawmakers are not expected to do so, either, in the version of a budget they will send her by the scheduled end of session April 26.

However, there are those in the Democratic caucus who will push for a ballot measure to raise taxes to pay for programs on the chopping block.

"I am," Roberts said. "We should not carve out $6 billion of services. There are too many things I think the people in our community care about."

Republicans say it's not the strategy they endorse.

House Minority Leader Richard DeBolt, R-Chehalis, said he's concerned popular programs will be axed, then voters asked to save them with higher taxes.

"We're going to go ahead and cut education and say to the voters, 'Here, we've got to get new taxes to pay for these programs,'" he told a forum of reporters earlier this week. "That's not the kind of solutions we want to look at. We want to look at the budget as a whole."

Inside the chambers

A raft of new faces is joining the 147-member Legislature in 2009.

In the House, where Democrats enjoy a 62-36 advantage on Republicans, 18 new members will be seated this session. This includes successors for two lawmakers who died recently, Rep. Bill Grant, D-Walla Walla, and Rep. Steve Hailey, R-Mesa.

In the Senate, the newcomers include two Democrats and one Republican. Democrats hold a 31-18 edge in the chamber.

Snohomish County is represented in slivers and chunks by 21 lawmakers -- seven senators and 14 representatives. Among them is newly elected Rep. Mike Hope, R-Lake Stevens.

While budget matters will capture most of their attention, like everyone else's, other issues of local import are percolating.

Securing support for a new four-year university is on the agenda again for possibly the last time for a while.

Some lawmakers want legislation authorizing a state-financed college in Snohomish County without setting a deadline to get it done or requiring the University of Washington to run it.

Sen. Steve Hobbs, D-Lake Stevens, is pushing a plan to let county residents hike the local sales tax and use the money to build a new, independently run university.

Critics of the WASL will try to revamp the Washington Assessment of Student Learning, portions of which high school students must pass to graduate.

"I hope it looks a lot different and is a lot more helpful than it is right now," said Rep. Marko Liias, D-Mukilteo, who serves on the House Education Committee.

Shoring up funding for improvements on highways 2, 9 and 522, as well as building ferries and fixing terminals, are on lawmakers' to-do lists.

Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen, D-Camano Island, who is chairwoman of the Senate Transportation Committee, said declining gas tax revenues mean a lot cannot be done.

"Everybody is going to be frustrated," she said.

A slew of policy controversies could erupt.

Gregoire may try again to legalize roadside checkpoints to nab drunken drivers.

Unions will look to expand collective bargaining powers to performing artists.

Environmentalists will press for a program for fighting air emissions, called cap-and-trade.

There is likely to be debate on naming Aplets & Cotlets the state's official candy and legalizing same-sex marriages.

In the end, writing a deficit-free budget is the chief chore and lawmakers want to finish in their allotted 105 days. Going longer costs money they don't have.

"This will be the most interesting session I've been in," said Rep. Chase, who arrived in 2002. "We're going to find out what we're made of."

Reporter Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.