State cuts to be revealed this week

OLYMPIA -- Washington is wincing in anticipation of the coming state budget.

There's an unprecedented $9 billion chasm between what lawmakers want and must pay for in the next two-plus years, and what the state bank account can afford.

Closing that gap will affect nearly everyone in the state.

"In all probability there is going to be a lot of pain," Rep. Mark Ericks, D-Bothell, vice-chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said Monday. "What we're working on now is what the scale is and where the pain will be distributed."

Democrats, as the Legislature's majority party, are drafting proposals covering the current budget year that ends June 30, and the two-year budget that follows through June 2011.

On Thursday, Senate Democrats are expected to release their plan, with the House following suit a day later. Once each chamber passes its own version, budget writers from the Legislature and from the governor's office will negotiate a final budget.

Though details are not out, there's talk of what's in.

Students will lose teachers, the infirm will lose caregivers and the most down-and-out will lose help, and maybe hope. Up to 10,000 college enrollment slots may be wiped out and 10,000 employees of schools, colleges and the state may be out of work.

Those whose lives and livelihoods depend on state aid know it will be bad.

"We can't cut $9 billion from the state budget without devastating public schools," said Rich Wood, spokesman for the statewide teachers union, the Washington Education Association.

The Washington Health Care Association warned that proposed cuts in state aid for skilled nursing homes will directly affect residents.

"Facilities will lay off workers who care for our grandmothers, grandfathers, parents, children and friends," executive director Gary Weeks said in a statement.

Democrats plan to release budgets that are balanced without tax hikes.

Ericks said the House budget has some higher user fees to cover increased costs of services. Democrats also are working on a revenue-raising ballot measure to generate money for programs otherwise facing the chopping block. The House may reveal its ballot measure ideas this week.

Ericks said he's not involved in those efforts but is "assuming that it will be part of the conversation."

Gov. Chris Gregoire could become an ally of lawmakers. Though she introduced a no-new-taxes budget in December and vowed not to raise taxes in last year's campaign, she seemed to soften her stance Monday.

"I support them looking at any and every option to get us out of this. In the end, if it is a tax package, whether I support it, is an open question," she said.

Gregoire does back a bond for school construction and some other types of work and opposes increases in property, business and occupation, and sales taxes.

There maybe something else out there.

"I'm very troubled at a $9 billion deficit," she said. "At some point here we are going to do so much damage that we will not be able to recover. We're going to do such damage to individuals that they will not be able to recover."

Until she knows what legislators have in mind, she's not locking herself into a position.

"Before I say 'yes,' 'no' or 'maybe,' I need to understand what 'it' is," she said of the various possibilities the House and the Senate are rumored to be considering.

In December, Gregoire proposed a $33.3 billion budget for the two-year period starting July 1, 2009. The projected deficit then was $6 billion.

Forecasts now show the state will collect $2.9 billion less in revenues by the end of the next budget, thus enlarging the shortfall to nearly $9 billion.

Even after subtracting the use of federal stimulus money, other state funds and savings from freezing pay, the Legislature still must trim $4 billion in planned spending.

Some of the larger cuts eyed by Democrats are:

· no cost-of-living increases for teachers and state workers;

· significantly cutting funds for Initiative 728 programs for reducing class sizes;

· across-the-board cuts of 13 percent to 20 percent at colleges;

· eliminating 10,000 enrollment slots at universities;

· a freeze on new enrollments in the state Basic Health Plan;

· reductions in General Assistance for the Unemployable, which provides health care and monthly stipends for the disabled and the state's most down-and-out residents;

· layoffs of up to 10,000 people in schools, colleges and the state work force;

Republicans say from what they've heard, Democrats are going to be making a lot of the moves Republicans have talked about since the session started in January.

Senate Minority Leader Mike Hewitt, R-Walla Walla, said his caucus may like the bottom line reached by Democrats but differ on the cuts they propose. He said some decisions will be used to whip up public support of a tax measure.

"We still think they'll make Draconian cuts and put them out to a vote of the people," he said.

Ericks said a ballot measure is the cart, the budget is the horse.

"My position has been and remains that asking the public in these times for a revenue increase is not what our first duty is," Ericks said. "There is no amount of taxing ourselves out of this problem."

Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623; jcornfield@heraldnet.com.