Published: Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Handicapping NHL first round
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AP
Vancouver Canucks' goalie Roberto Luongo follows the puck during team hockey practice in Vancouver on Tuesday April 14, 2009. The Canucks open their NHL Western Conference quarterfinal playoff series against the St. Louis Blues on Wednesday in Vancouver.
Ah, the first round of the NHL playoffs, a time when hope springs eternal; when Cinderella is still prepping for the ball, with midnight many hours away.
The first round is always the most compelling because of its unpredictable nature. Recent history shows that while an underdog may occasionally have its day, usually a top dog emerges with the Stanley Cup once the two-month playoff marathon is complete.
Upsets, when they occur, happen most frequently coming right out of the gate when teams are energized by the possibilities -- either because it's all so new to them (four of the eight Western Conference qualifiers were playoff newcomers this year); or because it's been a long but necessary preamble (for perennial contenders Detroit, San Jose and more recently, Pittsburgh).
So here is how 2009's opening round shapes up:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 San Jose vs. No. 8 Anaheim
The first Battle of California since that memorable 1969 series between the Oakland Seals and Los Angeles Kings may be closer than the 26-point gap between the Pacific Division rivals suggests. The two played a home-and-home series two weekends ago; Anaheim spanked San Jose in the opener and lost the return engagement because of its parade to the penalty box. If the Ducks' shaky discipline falters, then the Sharks will eat them up on the power play. If the referees swallow their whistles, then the Ducks have a chance for a major upset.
SAN JOSE in 7 games
No. 2 Detroit vs. No. 7 Columbus
They would never say it publicly, but this is the preferred opponent for the Red Wings. The trip to Columbus is a short commute; the cross-country travel to play Anaheim -- the last team that beat them back in the '07 playoffs -- would have been a nightmare for a veteran team. On this year's performance, Columbus a decided edge in the goaltending matchup -- rookie Steve Mason versus Chris Osgood -- but the Jackets gave up 14 goals in their final two outings of the regular season, with a higher seed on the line, meaning they're not exactly cruising into the playoffs. Detroit's experience and depth will win out.
DETROIT in 6
No. 3 Vancouver vs. No. 6 St. Louis
Both goalies -- the Canucks' Roberto Luongo and the Blues' Chris Mason -- come in playing well. Andy McDonald's return from a high-ankle sprain gave the Blues two balanced scoring lines and Paul Kariya, who missed most of the year after hip surgery, is ready to come in from the bullpen if needed. Vancouver's scoring balance increased after the Mats Sundin signing, and the decision to put Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows into scoring situations. The teams split in the regular-season, 2-2, making this a pick 'em.
ST. LOUIS in 6.
No. 4 Chicago vs. No. 5 Calgary
A rematch of their 1996 series, memorable only because it was the last time the Blackhawks won a playoff round. On paper, it is the West's biggest mismatch. Chicago won all four meetings, and goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin owns the Flames (22-5-2 lifetime regular-season mark). The absence of Calgary defenseman Robyn Regehr will be keenly felt; usually Regehr's assignment would be to punish Patrick Kane and Martin Havlat, two thirds of Chicago's No. 1 line. Playoff experience is about all Calgary has here.
CHICAGO in 5
EASTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 Boston vs. No. 8 Montreal
Montreal has won 24 of 31 previous playoff series between the teams, so history cannot be overlooked. Sadly, the Bruins reversed field against Montreal this season, taking 11 of a possible 12 points after getting swept the previous year, and they are a far deeper team overall, with a steadier goalie in Tim Thomas and a defensive presence in Zdeno Chara that the Canadiens simply can't match.
BOSTON in 5
No. 2 Washington vs. No. 7 New York Rangers
The Capitals lost a heartbreaking opening-round series to Philadelphia last season (in overtime in Game 7), providing valuable experience to Alex Ovechkin and his improving supporting cast. The Rangers' only edge is between the pipes, where Henrik Lundqvist is a surer bet than the Capitals' flighty Jose Theodore. Four Caps -- Ovechkin, Mike Green, Alex Semin and Nicklas Backstrom -- averaged more than a point a game, while the Rangers' popgun attack did not feature even a single 60-point scorer. How the Rangers' No. 1-ranked penalty-killing unit handles the Capitals' first-rate power play may decide things.
WASHINGTON in 5
No. 3 New Jersey vs. No. 6 Carolina
The only series to feature a pair of Stanley Cup-winning goalies, Cam Ward against Martin Brodeur, who struggled down the stretch after becoming the NHL's career wins leader in March. By contrast, the Hurricanes were dynamite in that span after reacquiring Erik Cole at the trade deadline, going on a 13-1-2 run to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since they won it all three years ago. Carolina won the last two playoff meetings, each of which relies on a rising young star (Eric Staal and Zach Parise). New Jersey is the epitome of NHL stability, having made the playoffs in 12 consecutive seasons.
CAROLINA in 6
No. 4 Pittsburgh vs. No. 5 Philadelphia
A reprise of last year's Eastern Conference final, where the Penguins clobbered the Flyers in five games. The teams scored an identical number of goals, 264, but Pittsburgh relied heavily on Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for theirs, while Philadelphia spread the wealth around (a league-high six forwards with 25 or more goals, led by Jeff Carter, second overall with 46). The Penguins moved from 10th to fourth under new coach Dan Bylsma. After a so-so start, goalie Marc-Andre Fleury turned it around with a 9-1-2 March, complete with 1.87 GAA and .938 save percentage. Philadelphia will go with Martin Biron in net. Last year, at 31, he made his playoff debut and posted a respectable 9-8 record.
PITTSBURGH in 5
The first round is always the most compelling because of its unpredictable nature. Recent history shows that while an underdog may occasionally have its day, usually a top dog emerges with the Stanley Cup once the two-month playoff marathon is complete.
Upsets, when they occur, happen most frequently coming right out of the gate when teams are energized by the possibilities -- either because it's all so new to them (four of the eight Western Conference qualifiers were playoff newcomers this year); or because it's been a long but necessary preamble (for perennial contenders Detroit, San Jose and more recently, Pittsburgh).
So here is how 2009's opening round shapes up:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 San Jose vs. No. 8 Anaheim
The first Battle of California since that memorable 1969 series between the Oakland Seals and Los Angeles Kings may be closer than the 26-point gap between the Pacific Division rivals suggests. The two played a home-and-home series two weekends ago; Anaheim spanked San Jose in the opener and lost the return engagement because of its parade to the penalty box. If the Ducks' shaky discipline falters, then the Sharks will eat them up on the power play. If the referees swallow their whistles, then the Ducks have a chance for a major upset.
SAN JOSE in 7 games
No. 2 Detroit vs. No. 7 Columbus
They would never say it publicly, but this is the preferred opponent for the Red Wings. The trip to Columbus is a short commute; the cross-country travel to play Anaheim -- the last team that beat them back in the '07 playoffs -- would have been a nightmare for a veteran team. On this year's performance, Columbus a decided edge in the goaltending matchup -- rookie Steve Mason versus Chris Osgood -- but the Jackets gave up 14 goals in their final two outings of the regular season, with a higher seed on the line, meaning they're not exactly cruising into the playoffs. Detroit's experience and depth will win out.
DETROIT in 6
No. 3 Vancouver vs. No. 6 St. Louis
Both goalies -- the Canucks' Roberto Luongo and the Blues' Chris Mason -- come in playing well. Andy McDonald's return from a high-ankle sprain gave the Blues two balanced scoring lines and Paul Kariya, who missed most of the year after hip surgery, is ready to come in from the bullpen if needed. Vancouver's scoring balance increased after the Mats Sundin signing, and the decision to put Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows into scoring situations. The teams split in the regular-season, 2-2, making this a pick 'em.
ST. LOUIS in 6.
No. 4 Chicago vs. No. 5 Calgary
A rematch of their 1996 series, memorable only because it was the last time the Blackhawks won a playoff round. On paper, it is the West's biggest mismatch. Chicago won all four meetings, and goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin owns the Flames (22-5-2 lifetime regular-season mark). The absence of Calgary defenseman Robyn Regehr will be keenly felt; usually Regehr's assignment would be to punish Patrick Kane and Martin Havlat, two thirds of Chicago's No. 1 line. Playoff experience is about all Calgary has here.
CHICAGO in 5
EASTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 Boston vs. No. 8 Montreal
Montreal has won 24 of 31 previous playoff series between the teams, so history cannot be overlooked. Sadly, the Bruins reversed field against Montreal this season, taking 11 of a possible 12 points after getting swept the previous year, and they are a far deeper team overall, with a steadier goalie in Tim Thomas and a defensive presence in Zdeno Chara that the Canadiens simply can't match.
BOSTON in 5
No. 2 Washington vs. No. 7 New York Rangers
The Capitals lost a heartbreaking opening-round series to Philadelphia last season (in overtime in Game 7), providing valuable experience to Alex Ovechkin and his improving supporting cast. The Rangers' only edge is between the pipes, where Henrik Lundqvist is a surer bet than the Capitals' flighty Jose Theodore. Four Caps -- Ovechkin, Mike Green, Alex Semin and Nicklas Backstrom -- averaged more than a point a game, while the Rangers' popgun attack did not feature even a single 60-point scorer. How the Rangers' No. 1-ranked penalty-killing unit handles the Capitals' first-rate power play may decide things.
WASHINGTON in 5
No. 3 New Jersey vs. No. 6 Carolina
The only series to feature a pair of Stanley Cup-winning goalies, Cam Ward against Martin Brodeur, who struggled down the stretch after becoming the NHL's career wins leader in March. By contrast, the Hurricanes were dynamite in that span after reacquiring Erik Cole at the trade deadline, going on a 13-1-2 run to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since they won it all three years ago. Carolina won the last two playoff meetings, each of which relies on a rising young star (Eric Staal and Zach Parise). New Jersey is the epitome of NHL stability, having made the playoffs in 12 consecutive seasons.
CAROLINA in 6
No. 4 Pittsburgh vs. No. 5 Philadelphia
A reprise of last year's Eastern Conference final, where the Penguins clobbered the Flyers in five games. The teams scored an identical number of goals, 264, but Pittsburgh relied heavily on Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for theirs, while Philadelphia spread the wealth around (a league-high six forwards with 25 or more goals, led by Jeff Carter, second overall with 46). The Penguins moved from 10th to fourth under new coach Dan Bylsma. After a so-so start, goalie Marc-Andre Fleury turned it around with a 9-1-2 March, complete with 1.87 GAA and .938 save percentage. Philadelphia will go with Martin Biron in net. Last year, at 31, he made his playoff debut and posted a respectable 9-8 record.
PITTSBURGH in 5
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