Ed Murray tackles the math on Ref 71 and now I'm more confused
Thursday, August 6, 2009 | 2:52 pm
The Secretary of State's Office is continuing today to verify the number of valid signatures on petitions for Referendum 71. The process may not wrap up until Aug. 17.
The office is providing daily updates on how many names have been checked and how many have been found to be invalid.
Well, today, state Sen. Ed Murray, who wrote the law that the referendum is targeting for repeal, put out a press release on why the Secretary of State's calculations are confusing.
And he confused me. Read it for yourself.
“The current rate of invalid signatures reported by the Secretary of State’s office in the R-71 signature count gives me great hope that the referendum won’t make the ballot.
“However, there’s a bit of confusion out there about how the count is trending because of an inconsistency in the math used to report the rate.
“The Secretary of State’s blog first reported that the error rate had to stay under 14.2 percent for the referendum to qualify – referred to as ‘the cushion.’
“That cushion was derived by dividing the number of signatures turned in (137,689) by the number needed to qualify (120,577) and subtracting 1.
“With the cumulative invalid rate of 13.3 percent as of Wednesday, many have been led to believe that the referendum supporters are within their cushion.
“This is wrong.
“That because in its subsequent reporting of the daily signature check, the Secretary of State’s blog reversed its math, dividing the number of signatures verified by the number examined.
“It’s confusing when one method is used to determine the overall rates and the opposite method is used in the daily reports.
“If the Secretary of State’s blog had first used the math that it is using now, it would have divided the total they need to verify (120,577) by the total number they will count (137,689) --and, again, subtracted 1 -- for a maximum invalid rate of 12.4 percent.
“Or, if the Secretary of State’s blog were still using the math it began with, the current error rate would be 15.4 percent, rather than 13.3 percent.
“We know that 15.4 percent is higher than 14.2 percent, and 13.3 percent is higher than 12.4 percent.
“Either way, when consistent methods are used, the current rate of invalid signatures clearly suggests that R-71 won’t make the ballot."
The office is providing daily updates on how many names have been checked and how many have been found to be invalid.
Well, today, state Sen. Ed Murray, who wrote the law that the referendum is targeting for repeal, put out a press release on why the Secretary of State's calculations are confusing.
And he confused me. Read it for yourself.
“The current rate of invalid signatures reported by the Secretary of State’s office in the R-71 signature count gives me great hope that the referendum won’t make the ballot.
“However, there’s a bit of confusion out there about how the count is trending because of an inconsistency in the math used to report the rate.
“The Secretary of State’s blog first reported that the error rate had to stay under 14.2 percent for the referendum to qualify – referred to as ‘the cushion.’
“That cushion was derived by dividing the number of signatures turned in (137,689) by the number needed to qualify (120,577) and subtracting 1.
“With the cumulative invalid rate of 13.3 percent as of Wednesday, many have been led to believe that the referendum supporters are within their cushion.
“This is wrong.
“That because in its subsequent reporting of the daily signature check, the Secretary of State’s blog reversed its math, dividing the number of signatures verified by the number examined.
“It’s confusing when one method is used to determine the overall rates and the opposite method is used in the daily reports.
“If the Secretary of State’s blog had first used the math that it is using now, it would have divided the total they need to verify (120,577) by the total number they will count (137,689) --and, again, subtracted 1 -- for a maximum invalid rate of 12.4 percent.
“Or, if the Secretary of State’s blog were still using the math it began with, the current error rate would be 15.4 percent, rather than 13.3 percent.
“We know that 15.4 percent is higher than 14.2 percent, and 13.3 percent is higher than 12.4 percent.
“Either way, when consistent methods are used, the current rate of invalid signatures clearly suggests that R-71 won’t make the ballot."
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