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Fearless Predictions: Texas
Posted
at
12:01 am
by Scott Whitmore
Sitting here watching CNN, just hours after the tragic shootings at Fort Hood, Texas. Not sure what NASCAR will do — all three of the national series are in the Lone Star State this weekend — but certainly expect that there will be tributes for the fallen and injured.
Obviously, this is not the place or the time — there is still so much unknown — for a long diatribe from me. But, as a military retiree, before continuing allow me to pass along my condolences to the families of those injured, and ask that you do the same.Roush strong at Texas, but JJ is too
A strong run in Sunday's Dickies 500 (12:15 a.m., ABC/Ch. 4) at Texas Motor Speedway should be all Jimmie Johnson needs to lock up a historic fourth straight Cup championship. And based on the numbers, on Monday that'll be a done-deal.
Johnson holds the third-best career driving rating at Texas (103.8), behind just No. 1 Matt Kenseth (105.8) and No. 2 Tony Stewart (105.4).
If any other team has an answer for Johnson at Texas, it may be Roush Fenway. The final two spots in the top-5 are also Roush teammates of Kenseth, with Carl Edwards (102.4) at No. 4 and Greg Biffle (95.7) No. 5.
Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in five straight Texas races, Biffle has two straight top-5 results and Edwards swept the Cup races there last year.Can we give the Nationwide title to Shrub?
Although Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski haven't given up, it would appear Kyle Busch should be looking for a place on his shelf for the Nationwide Series trophy.
With three races left, including Saturday's O'Reilly Challenge (9:45 a.m., ESPN2), Busch has a 215-point lead over No. 2 Edwards and a 257-point margin over No. 3 Keselowski. The largest comeback in series history with three races to go is 125 points by Rob Moroso in 1989.
And it isn't like Busch isn't good at Texas. He's won three straight Nationwide races there, and posted a perfect 150.0 driver rating in winning both the Texas Fall race last year and in April of this year.Speaking of clinching, let's talk Trucks
The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series also has just three races left, beginning with Friday's WinStar World Casino 250 (6 p.m., SPEED).
Although he finished 17th in last weekend's race at Talladega, series leader Ron Hornaday has a 202-point lead over Matt Crafton, the only other driver in the running for the series title.
Like Kyle Busch, who will be running in all three series races at Texas — Hornaday is pretty good in the Lone Star State. He's the defending race winner — his second series victory at Texas, and since 2005 he has a second-best career driver rating (119.7) and a third-best average running position (6.1) there.
Crafton, on the other hand, is No. 11 in driver rating at Texas (89.0) and No. 14 in average running position (12.4). He did, however, finish second to race-winner Todd Bodine in this season's first Texas race.Picks
Let's say Carl Edwards finally gets a Cup win in 2009, Kyle Busch locks up his Nationwide title in Victory Lane and Colin Braun takes the truck race.
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