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Fearless Predictions: Penultimate Edition
Posted
at
12:01 am
by Scott Whitmore
For some racers this is the weekend they've been working toward all season long. For others, it could be the start of an unbelievable comeback.NHRA season finale
The NHRA Finals are this weekend at Auto Club Raceway in Pomona, Calif. (7:30 p.m., Saturday, qualifying ESPN2; 4 p.m., Sunday, eliminations, ESPN2). Four pro series champions will be crowned at Auto Club, although we have a pretty good idea of who will be lifting the golden Wallys in Pro Stock and Funny Car.
Despite an uncharacteristic early bow-out in the previous event at Las Vegas, Mike Edwards has a 139-point lead over Greg Anderson in Pro Stock. Done deal. Over in Funny Car, Robert Hight's got 105 points over John Force Racing teammate Ashley Force Hood, which should be enough to earn him an unexpected championship.
It's a two-rider race in Pro Stock Motorcycle, with current leader Hector Arana holding a strong — but not insurmountable — 54-point margin over defending champion Eddie Krawiec.
But the title battle the NRHA is playing up — and for my money it's a much more compelling story than the Force-Pedregon brouhaha in Indianapolis that ESPN drove into the ground — is in Top Fuel.
Before this season even began, defending champion Tony Schumacher lost his longtime veteran crew chief Allan Johnson, who departed to form Al-Anabi Racing with the backing of Sheikh Khali bin Hamad Al-Thani, and took most of the crew from Schumacher's U.S. Army team with him.
To pilot his Top Fuel dragster, Johnson hired Larry Dixon, who won titles in 2002 and '03 with Don "The Snake” Prudhomme. Clearly, Johnson and Al-Anabi aimed to become the top dog in Top Fuel, a position six-time champion Schumacher has claimed for his own.
Entering the finals, Dixon trails Schumacher by just one point after Schumacher also stumbled at Las Vegas, losing in the second round to teammate Cory McClenathan — a fair-fought race that drew attention once again to John Force laying down for Hight in Indianapolis, leading to his much-televised conformation with Tony Pedregon.
Pedregon's brother and defending Funny Car champion Cruz Pedregon was bounced from the Countdown because of Hight's victory over Force, although it is usually overlooked that Cruz Pedregon could have clinched a playoff berth for himself by winning the previous round against none other than Force.
It is the comparison between how these “feuds” have been played out that makes the Schumacher-Dixon-Johnson triangle more compelling. Rather than red-faced, arms-waving yelling and/or preening for the cameras, the Top Fuel guys are keeping quiet and letting their results on the track speak for them.
Yes, you can clearly see in their eyes, set jaws and overall demeanors that each wants to beat the other. And they may drop some hints in their post-race interviews, but they're keeping it professional and civil for the fans — giving everyone credit for being smart enough to know what's at stake instead of playing it like wrestling.
Every round matters for both Dixon and Schumacher, but don't count out McClenathan, who is 48 points behind an also very much in the running. He may be the sentimental favorite; his 31 career event wins are the second most of any driver who hasn't won a championship. If either of the leaders stumble, Cory-Mac just may be there to snatch a golden Wally.That's why they run the races
NASCAR is also Out West this week, with the second-to-last round of races for all three national series being held at Phoenix International Raceway in Avondale, Ariz.
The penultimate round in The Chase for the Sprint Cup is Sunday's Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 (12:15 p.m., ABC/Ch. 4). The Nationwide Series takes to the 1-mile track on Saturday for the Able Body Labor 200 (1:30 p.m., ESPN2) and the Camping World Truck Series will race Friday in the Lucas Oil 150 (5 p.m., SPEED).
Jimmie Johnson's early crash last weekend in Texas eliminated most of his dominant lead in the Chase, and he heads to Phoenix just 73 points ahead of No. 2 Mark Martin and 112 ahead of No. 3 Jeff Gordon. For the three-time and defending champion to clinch a historic fourth straight title at Phoenix, he'll need to lead by 195 points after the race.
Impossible? Not if the same bad luck that hit him in Texas runs into Martin and/or Gordon. Likely? No. I suspect the ESPN-on-ABC TV announcers will be playing the “how many points does he have now” game next weekend at Homestead. Either way, as Dale Jarrett said after Johnson's wreck last weekend, that's why we run the races.
The car of Nationwide leader Kyle Busch was found to have an unsecured weight in the post-race inspection at Texas, and NASCAR docked him 25 points for it. Even with that, it is more than likely Busch will clinch the title in Phoenix.
Once again, 195 is the magic number: Busch must be ahead of the second-place driver by that much at the end of the race to lock up the championship in Phoenix. He enters with a 247-point lead over defending champion Carl Edwards, and has 267 markers over No. 3 Brad Keselowski.
In trying to cut the margin to keep Busch from clinching, Edwards needs to be careful not to lose ground to Keselowski, who would love to move on to a full-time Cup ride with a runner-up finish in the Nationwide Series for team owner Dale Earnhardt Jr.
In the Truck series, Busch may also be a factor, as he seems to be able to do what most other drivers can't: beat current points leader Ron Hornaday Jr.
Hornaday heads into Phoenix with a 197-point lead over Matt Crafton, the only other driver with a shot at the title. Hornaday needs only to average 22nd-place finishes over the final two races to lock up a record fourth series title; or he can get it out of the way early by — once again — leaving Arizona ahead of Crafton by at least 195 points.
As with Busch clinching the Nationwide title, I don't see any reason why there will be any drama in the truck series next weekend at Homestead. Call it, time of championship around 7:30 p.m. Friday night.Penultimate means next to last, right?
For those that may have wondered (Ed.: All three of them, hey?), no, I'm not trying to favor NASCAR over the NHRA with the title of this week's column.
Instead, this is my second-to-last column for The Herald. At least that's the way it stands right now. If anything changes, I'll let you know. As for now, however, I'm planning on doing something different next week ahead of NASCAR's Homestead races. I'll still do picks, but the column itself will likely be more of a thank-you note.Picks
With a new crew chief and mostly a new crew, it's been business-as-usual for defending Top Fuel champion Tony Schumacher this year. It may go down to the final round, but Sarge wins Pomona to earn a seventh gold Wally.
In the other categories, Mike Edwards adds an event Wally to his championship one by returning to the winner's circle in Pro Stockg; Ron Capps salvages something from this season with a Funny Car win although Robert Hight hoists the gold Wally; and Hector Arana continues his career year with a Pro Stock Motorcycle win and gold Wally.
For NASCAR, I'll go with Kurt Busch to follow his victory last weekend in Texas with another in the Cup race at Phoenix, Brad Keselowski to move up in the points with a Nationwide win and Kyle Busch to make it three straight in the Truck series.
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