Snohomish County's bargain housing won't last

For the last couple of years, the monthly report on real estate sales in Snohomish County has sounded a lot like a broken record: sales down, listings down, prices down.

In recent months, the government has stepped in. First it was an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers. Then that was extended and a $6,500 credit was offered to people who wanted to move up to a different home.

Then it was sales up, listings down, prices down.

Nobody knows when prices will stop falling, but the numbers are getting pretty interesting to me.

It's not, of course, completely about prices. What homes cost in our county have a direct relationship to its population, to I-5 traffic, and to other elements of our daily lives.

In the most recent stats released last week by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, the combined median price for single-family homes and condominiums in the county last month was $267,995. That's about $29,000 less than the median price of just a year ago, or down about 9 percent.

Things get even more interesting if you look in King County, where the combined median price was $350,000 last month. That's down less than 4 percent from the previous year, about $14,000. A median means half the homes cost more and half cost less.

The Snohomish County real estate market has always been linked to King County because King has a significantly larger number of jobs. In the past, people who worked in King County often were forced to buy more affordable homes in Snohomish County.

For years, Snohomish County homes cost about $50,000 less on average than those in King County, so people were willing to buy their homes here and fight the traffic every day.

What I noticed during the past year or so is that the prices for homes in King County have been dropping significantly less than prices for homes in Snohomish County.

The gap in median prices in the two counties is widening. It's now $83,000.

Again, I don't know what to expect in the real estate market. But if businesses start hiring again, I've got to think Snohomish County home sales should climb faster than in King County.

That $83,000 gap is pretty substantial, and it likely will continue to expand for a while until the economy begins growing again.

The gap gets bigger the further you're willing to drive.

In Everett, the median price is $256,734. In Stanwood, it's closer to $230,000.

In southeast Snohomish County near the King County line, the median is $350,000, or the same as in King County. Last year in that same spot, the median was $413,000.

I've heard some friends say that one of the few good things about the recession is that the commute to King County seems less strenuous these days. If that's been your experience, I'd enjoy it while you can. It's not going to last forever.

Mike Benbow: 425-339-3459; benbow@heraldnet.com