Published: Sunday, August 22, 2010
In three hot state races, the message is everything
As results of the 2010 primary are etched into the grand Book of Elections, you may be wondering what to expect in the coming weeks.
Well, here's a snapshot of what you might see occur in three hotly contested races.
Jean Berkey, if she survives the primary, must obviously run harder and smarter to keep her seat in the state Senate. The Everett Democrat conducted a minimalist campaign which left her undefined to voters and without a spot in the top two entering the weekend.
If she gets a shot at re-election, Berkey needs a modern and full-throttle effort to win, one that tells Democrat and Republican voters what she's done and why she wants four more years. She's got lots of work to do as results show she's not the first choice of two-thirds of her district's voters.
Nick Harper, the Democrat poised to take Berkey's seat, can't leave his smooth-running campaign on cruise control, even if he is facing the widely unknown Rod Rieger. Harper needs to quiet his loud friends in organized labor before they undo all the good they've done for him thus far.
To beat Berkey, he'll need support of Republicans because they will be the voters who decide the race. That's less vital if his foe is Rieger. It's a Democrat-heavy district and if Berkey is not on the ballot, he can vie for her votes and sew up the seat.
Rieger, who is on the cusp of advancing, must decide if he wants to be a state senator. If he does, he'll need to actually campaign, which he didn't do in the primary.
Rieger holds strong conservative views but most voters don't know any of them. He says Harper's politics are left of President Barack Obama, a line which could define the race if he chooses to seriously compete. It is ironic though that Harper's left-wing friends may be the ones responsible for Rieger being in this position. In the primary's final days, they sent mailers to voters urging them to support Rieger.
Dave Schmidt's chances of regaining his state Senate seat hinge on convincing voters his personal travails are not a political liability. It doesn't sound good when you hear the Mill Creek Republican is unemployed, behind in his taxes and paying his bills with campaign contributions.
He does sound good talking of Democrats overspending in Olympia and his commitment not to raise taxes. Four years ago, a Democratic wave helped carry Schmidt out of office and he is counting on a Republican wave to carry him back in.
Steve Hobbs must keep his cool and make clear what parts of the Democratic agenda he backed -- and which ones he didn't. The Lake Stevens Democrat should know he will get stained with his party's free-spending behavior and must respond quickly to keep it from setting in voters' minds.
Hobbs has carved out a name for himself as a moderate. He needs to discern for voters what that means. He has ample funds in his campaign to do that, unlike Schmidt who begins the march to November with a few bucks and some unpaid campaign bills.
Rick Larsen is positioned to win his rematch with John Koster and gain a sixth term as the 2nd District representative in Congress. Though the incumbent Democrat may not win the primary, it's a good sign that more than half the votes cast are for Democratic candidates in that race.
Larsen has money to run a strong campaign. But Larsen can lose if the economy doesn't improve and a Republican high tide washes over the state which is what many political analysts are forecasting.
John Koster is the only Sarah Palin-blessed candidate on the November ballot in Washington. He'll need more than the former Alaska governor's endorsement -- and Texas Congressman Ron Paul's -- to pull off the upset.
To win, the Arlington Republican must raise a lot more money to get his name known by a lot more voters in the sprawling district. Koster must harp continually on the economy and Larsen's voting record on federal spending. If the conversation shifts to social and environmental issues, Koster's staunch conservatism may turn off independent voters that will be the difference makers in this contest.
Political reporter Jerry Cornfield's blog, The Petri Dish, is at www.heraldnet.com. Contact him at 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
Well, here's a snapshot of what you might see occur in three hotly contested races.
Jean Berkey, if she survives the primary, must obviously run harder and smarter to keep her seat in the state Senate. The Everett Democrat conducted a minimalist campaign which left her undefined to voters and without a spot in the top two entering the weekend.
If she gets a shot at re-election, Berkey needs a modern and full-throttle effort to win, one that tells Democrat and Republican voters what she's done and why she wants four more years. She's got lots of work to do as results show she's not the first choice of two-thirds of her district's voters.
Nick Harper, the Democrat poised to take Berkey's seat, can't leave his smooth-running campaign on cruise control, even if he is facing the widely unknown Rod Rieger. Harper needs to quiet his loud friends in organized labor before they undo all the good they've done for him thus far.
To beat Berkey, he'll need support of Republicans because they will be the voters who decide the race. That's less vital if his foe is Rieger. It's a Democrat-heavy district and if Berkey is not on the ballot, he can vie for her votes and sew up the seat.
Rieger, who is on the cusp of advancing, must decide if he wants to be a state senator. If he does, he'll need to actually campaign, which he didn't do in the primary.
Rieger holds strong conservative views but most voters don't know any of them. He says Harper's politics are left of President Barack Obama, a line which could define the race if he chooses to seriously compete. It is ironic though that Harper's left-wing friends may be the ones responsible for Rieger being in this position. In the primary's final days, they sent mailers to voters urging them to support Rieger.
Dave Schmidt's chances of regaining his state Senate seat hinge on convincing voters his personal travails are not a political liability. It doesn't sound good when you hear the Mill Creek Republican is unemployed, behind in his taxes and paying his bills with campaign contributions.
He does sound good talking of Democrats overspending in Olympia and his commitment not to raise taxes. Four years ago, a Democratic wave helped carry Schmidt out of office and he is counting on a Republican wave to carry him back in.
Steve Hobbs must keep his cool and make clear what parts of the Democratic agenda he backed -- and which ones he didn't. The Lake Stevens Democrat should know he will get stained with his party's free-spending behavior and must respond quickly to keep it from setting in voters' minds.
Hobbs has carved out a name for himself as a moderate. He needs to discern for voters what that means. He has ample funds in his campaign to do that, unlike Schmidt who begins the march to November with a few bucks and some unpaid campaign bills.
Rick Larsen is positioned to win his rematch with John Koster and gain a sixth term as the 2nd District representative in Congress. Though the incumbent Democrat may not win the primary, it's a good sign that more than half the votes cast are for Democratic candidates in that race.
Larsen has money to run a strong campaign. But Larsen can lose if the economy doesn't improve and a Republican high tide washes over the state which is what many political analysts are forecasting.
John Koster is the only Sarah Palin-blessed candidate on the November ballot in Washington. He'll need more than the former Alaska governor's endorsement -- and Texas Congressman Ron Paul's -- to pull off the upset.
To win, the Arlington Republican must raise a lot more money to get his name known by a lot more voters in the sprawling district. Koster must harp continually on the economy and Larsen's voting record on federal spending. If the conversation shifts to social and environmental issues, Koster's staunch conservatism may turn off independent voters that will be the difference makers in this contest.
Political reporter Jerry Cornfield's blog, The Petri Dish, is at www.heraldnet.com. Contact him at 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
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