Published: Wednesday, June 29, 2011
McKenna vs. the act you've known for all these years
It was 20 years ago today, Bill Clinton taught the band to play. Candidate Clinton was the Sgt. Pepper Democrats needed to break the 12-year drought following the dismal presidency of Jimmy Carter.
James Carville famously framed the 1992 presidential campaign around three themes tacked on a sign in the Little Rock, Ark., office: "Change versus more of the same," "the economy, stupid," and "don't forget about health care." The message has gone in and out of style ever since.
Nationally, Republicans will appropriate the Little Rock messages for their own purposes in the 2012 campaigns.
Democrats face the headwinds on each. The inspirational "hope and change" hymn of the last presidential election founders on partisan rancor, pervasive cynicism and unfulfilled promises. Economic woes persist, unemployment will remain high through 2012, and the massive federal health care law is less popular now than it was when it was adopted.
Polling shows nearly two-thirds of the public believes the country is on the wrong track. In our state, the numbers aren't any better, with Gov. Chris Gregoire's approval ratings stuck below 40 percent and the unemployment rate at 9.1 percent.
State Republicans think it may be their turn. The last Republican governor, John Spellman, was elected in 1980 with 57 percent of the vote. Ronald Reagan won the presidency that year with just 51 percent of the popular vote. Four years later Reagan upped his share to 59 percent as Spellman fell to 47 percent, losing his re-election bid.
The GOP came close to breaking the losing streak just once, in the 2004 race between Dino Rossi and Chris Gregoire. With Gregoire choosing not to seek a third term they have another shot at an open seat next year.
Attorney General Rob McKenna announced his candidacy earlier this month. Congressman Jay Inslee joined the contest Monday. While others may jump in, Republican McKenna and Democrat Inslee have the inside track.
They won't have a hard time introducing themselves to state voters. Inslee has represented the 1st and 4th Congressional districts. In 1996, he ran unsuccessfully for governor. McKenna served on the King County Council before being elected attorney general in 2004 and re-elected in 2008. Both are skilled and formidable campaigners.
If you go to the Clinton playbook, the race shapes up like this.
Change favors the Republican, as it did in Rossi's first race. Although McKenna has been in politics for a long time, in this race he's the outsider, the new broom. As AG, he's been careful to steer an independent and largely noncontroversial course. In Olympia, the governor sets the agenda and staffs the bureaucracy. For nearly three decades, the same team has been in control. Voters may be ready for a fresh approach. Though Inslee won't try to make a case for "more of the same," he has a tougher time breaking the party line.
The economy also tilts Republican, though voters are likely to be in a "pox on both your houses" mood. Inslee, a long-time green-tech, clean-tech advocate, put jobs first in his campaign launch. He'll champion technology and renewables. Remarkably, he proposed tapping state pension funds to spur start-ups. It's an argument that has resonated here in the past, though the recession has increased voter sensitivity to the costs of subsidies and regulation.
McKenna came out of the gate emphasizing jobs, education and government reform. He can blend the three into a program that reduces taxes and regulations that impede job creation and redirects budget dollars to the schools and universities. The message will appeal to education boosters as well as business leaders.
"Don't forget about health care." No worries. It cuts both ways. McKenna joined with other attorneys general in challenging the federal law. He's trying to take a nuanced stance on a polarizing issue. Inslee voted for the health care law and called on McKenna to drop the challenge. We're sure to hear a lot about it, but this will not be the decisive campaign issue.
This will be a crossroads election, with talented candidates offering a clear choice. The playbook favors the Republican, but Washington has routinely bucked the trend. While Election Day 2012 seems far away, the time will pass swiftly.
Richard S. Davis, president of the Washington Research Council, writes on public policy, economics and politics. His email address is rsdavis@simeonpartners.com.
James Carville famously framed the 1992 presidential campaign around three themes tacked on a sign in the Little Rock, Ark., office: "Change versus more of the same," "the economy, stupid," and "don't forget about health care." The message has gone in and out of style ever since.
Nationally, Republicans will appropriate the Little Rock messages for their own purposes in the 2012 campaigns.
Democrats face the headwinds on each. The inspirational "hope and change" hymn of the last presidential election founders on partisan rancor, pervasive cynicism and unfulfilled promises. Economic woes persist, unemployment will remain high through 2012, and the massive federal health care law is less popular now than it was when it was adopted.
Polling shows nearly two-thirds of the public believes the country is on the wrong track. In our state, the numbers aren't any better, with Gov. Chris Gregoire's approval ratings stuck below 40 percent and the unemployment rate at 9.1 percent.
State Republicans think it may be their turn. The last Republican governor, John Spellman, was elected in 1980 with 57 percent of the vote. Ronald Reagan won the presidency that year with just 51 percent of the popular vote. Four years later Reagan upped his share to 59 percent as Spellman fell to 47 percent, losing his re-election bid.
The GOP came close to breaking the losing streak just once, in the 2004 race between Dino Rossi and Chris Gregoire. With Gregoire choosing not to seek a third term they have another shot at an open seat next year.
Attorney General Rob McKenna announced his candidacy earlier this month. Congressman Jay Inslee joined the contest Monday. While others may jump in, Republican McKenna and Democrat Inslee have the inside track.
They won't have a hard time introducing themselves to state voters. Inslee has represented the 1st and 4th Congressional districts. In 1996, he ran unsuccessfully for governor. McKenna served on the King County Council before being elected attorney general in 2004 and re-elected in 2008. Both are skilled and formidable campaigners.
If you go to the Clinton playbook, the race shapes up like this.
Change favors the Republican, as it did in Rossi's first race. Although McKenna has been in politics for a long time, in this race he's the outsider, the new broom. As AG, he's been careful to steer an independent and largely noncontroversial course. In Olympia, the governor sets the agenda and staffs the bureaucracy. For nearly three decades, the same team has been in control. Voters may be ready for a fresh approach. Though Inslee won't try to make a case for "more of the same," he has a tougher time breaking the party line.
The economy also tilts Republican, though voters are likely to be in a "pox on both your houses" mood. Inslee, a long-time green-tech, clean-tech advocate, put jobs first in his campaign launch. He'll champion technology and renewables. Remarkably, he proposed tapping state pension funds to spur start-ups. It's an argument that has resonated here in the past, though the recession has increased voter sensitivity to the costs of subsidies and regulation.
McKenna came out of the gate emphasizing jobs, education and government reform. He can blend the three into a program that reduces taxes and regulations that impede job creation and redirects budget dollars to the schools and universities. The message will appeal to education boosters as well as business leaders.
"Don't forget about health care." No worries. It cuts both ways. McKenna joined with other attorneys general in challenging the federal law. He's trying to take a nuanced stance on a polarizing issue. Inslee voted for the health care law and called on McKenna to drop the challenge. We're sure to hear a lot about it, but this will not be the decisive campaign issue.
This will be a crossroads election, with talented candidates offering a clear choice. The playbook favors the Republican, but Washington has routinely bucked the trend. While Election Day 2012 seems far away, the time will pass swiftly.
Richard S. Davis, president of the Washington Research Council, writes on public policy, economics and politics. His email address is rsdavis@simeonpartners.com.
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