Published: Wednesday, August 24, 2011
AquaSox notebook: Are you feeling lucky?
Today's Game
Opponent: Yakima Bears
When: 7:05 p.m.
Where: Everett Memorial Stadium
Radio: KRKO (1380 AM)
Probable starters: Everett right-hander Joe DiRocco (1-1, 3.98 ERA) vs. Yakima right-hander Blake Perry (no record)
Lucky, unlucky
So who among the AquaSox have been lucky this season and who's been unlucky?
There's a relatively new baseball statistic called batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which addresses that question. The statistic measures a player's batting average, or a pitcher's batting average against, on batted balls that don't clear the fence.
Analysis indicates that over time this number tends to normalize in the .290-.310 range. That means players who have individual BABIP numbers well out of that range may be the subject of luck, either by well-hit balls going right at defenders or poorly-hit balls finding holes in the defense.
The numbers aren't as reliable for hitters as a hitter's BABIP is affected by the player's skills. For example, a player with great speed tends to have a higher BABIP because of the ability to beat out grounders. So a player having a higher or lower BABIP than Everett's team number of .316 is not necessarily significant, though it's likely that Jorge Agudelo (.222 BABIP) has been at least somewhat unlucky, while Mario Yepez (.376) and Jharmidy De Jesus (.371) have probably received a bit of fortune.
But for pitchers the number is far more reliable as all pitchers tend to regress to the mean.
So where do Everett's pitchers stand? The Sox pitchers have a team BABIP of .305, which is right in the normal range. Everett went into Tuesday with seven pitchers on the roster who had thrown 30 or more innings, a small sample size but still something to work with.
Of those seven by far the luckiest pitcher has been Joe DiRocco, who had a BABIP of .200. Jordan Pries (.250) was also on the low side. That indicates that DiRocco (3.98 ERA) and Pries (3.26) may not have pitched quite as well as their numbers.
On the other side, Stephen Landazuri (.339 BABIP) and Jordan Shipers (.338) have been a tad unlucky, but not overly unfortunate. Landazuri (4.55 ERA) and Shipers (4.71) have probably been a little better than their numbers.
Bennett Whitmore (.311 BABIP, 5.17 ERA), Cameron Hobson (.284, 1.95) and Jose Campos (.281, 2.37) are all close to the normal range.
Intriguing addition
The Sox have added right-handed pitcher Andrew Kittredge to the roster.
Kittredge was a recent free-agent signing by the Seattle Mariners. He had been playing for the Okotoks Dawgs of the WMBL, a Canadian summer league.
What makes Kittredge intriguing, however, is his background. The Spokane native was expected to be the ace at the University of Washington as a junior this spring. However, Kittredge was ruled academically ineligible for the beginning of the season and never returned.
Kittredge had been on the radar for the draft. He was selected before when the Mariners took him in the 45th round out of Ferris High School in 2008, and he was rated as a player who could go in the top half of the draft this year. However, he slipped through the draft and found himself at Okotoks, where he went 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA and six saves, walking four and striking out 26 in 30 2/3 innings.
Opponent: Yakima Bears
When: 7:05 p.m.
Where: Everett Memorial Stadium
Radio: KRKO (1380 AM)
Probable starters: Everett right-hander Joe DiRocco (1-1, 3.98 ERA) vs. Yakima right-hander Blake Perry (no record)
Lucky, unlucky
So who among the AquaSox have been lucky this season and who's been unlucky?
There's a relatively new baseball statistic called batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which addresses that question. The statistic measures a player's batting average, or a pitcher's batting average against, on batted balls that don't clear the fence.
Analysis indicates that over time this number tends to normalize in the .290-.310 range. That means players who have individual BABIP numbers well out of that range may be the subject of luck, either by well-hit balls going right at defenders or poorly-hit balls finding holes in the defense.
The numbers aren't as reliable for hitters as a hitter's BABIP is affected by the player's skills. For example, a player with great speed tends to have a higher BABIP because of the ability to beat out grounders. So a player having a higher or lower BABIP than Everett's team number of .316 is not necessarily significant, though it's likely that Jorge Agudelo (.222 BABIP) has been at least somewhat unlucky, while Mario Yepez (.376) and Jharmidy De Jesus (.371) have probably received a bit of fortune.
But for pitchers the number is far more reliable as all pitchers tend to regress to the mean.
So where do Everett's pitchers stand? The Sox pitchers have a team BABIP of .305, which is right in the normal range. Everett went into Tuesday with seven pitchers on the roster who had thrown 30 or more innings, a small sample size but still something to work with.
Of those seven by far the luckiest pitcher has been Joe DiRocco, who had a BABIP of .200. Jordan Pries (.250) was also on the low side. That indicates that DiRocco (3.98 ERA) and Pries (3.26) may not have pitched quite as well as their numbers.
On the other side, Stephen Landazuri (.339 BABIP) and Jordan Shipers (.338) have been a tad unlucky, but not overly unfortunate. Landazuri (4.55 ERA) and Shipers (4.71) have probably been a little better than their numbers.
Bennett Whitmore (.311 BABIP, 5.17 ERA), Cameron Hobson (.284, 1.95) and Jose Campos (.281, 2.37) are all close to the normal range.
Intriguing addition
The Sox have added right-handed pitcher Andrew Kittredge to the roster.
Kittredge was a recent free-agent signing by the Seattle Mariners. He had been playing for the Okotoks Dawgs of the WMBL, a Canadian summer league.
What makes Kittredge intriguing, however, is his background. The Spokane native was expected to be the ace at the University of Washington as a junior this spring. However, Kittredge was ruled academically ineligible for the beginning of the season and never returned.
Kittredge had been on the radar for the draft. He was selected before when the Mariners took him in the 45th round out of Ferris High School in 2008, and he was rated as a player who could go in the top half of the draft this year. However, he slipped through the draft and found himself at Okotoks, where he went 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA and six saves, walking four and striking out 26 in 30 2/3 innings.
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