Published: Sunday, December 11, 2011
Jay Inslee faces challenges in governor’s race
If you're Jay Inslee, right about now you've got to be thinking, "Do I want to keep serving in Congress or do I want to get out and focus on becoming governor?''
As police Inspector Harry Callahan might put it to him: "Do you feel lucky, Jay? Well do ya?"
It's a difficult decision and a subject of conversation among those in Inslee's inner circle as well as a few orbiting his campaign.
It wouldn't even be a topic if the Democratic congressman appeared to be zooming effortlessly toward victory over Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna in 2012.
But he's not.
Inslee is trailing in every poll done to this point. Democrats back him less enthusiastically than Republicans embrace McKenna. And those decisive self-described independent voters in the middle aren't leaning Democrat right now.
Inslee has never conducted a full throttle statewide campaign and his is grinding its gears right now.
Meanwhile, McKenna is conducting an aggressive campaign in all 39 counties, some days combining official and political stops in the same trip. He did it last Tuesday in a visit to Snohomish County.
He toured Providence Hospital as AG then morphed into candidate McKenna for lunch with area business owners at an Everett restaurant.
(Coincidentally, at the same hour he was campaigning, the state Senate Judiciary Committee was discussing a bill to rein in the power of the attorney general. One of McKenna's top staff attorneys put forth a spirited argument against the bill.)
Inslee can dial for dollars and hold fundraising events in the other Washington. But his absence inhibits his ability to gain traction as a candidate.
What's the political cost of not finishing his term in a Congress which a recent Rasmussen Poll found to be less popular than the U.S. turning communist?
He'll take his lumps. Certainly McKenna and operators of the Republican spin machinery will dump on him for not keeping his commitment to voters.
Most voters probably won't give it much thought. They've shown little propensity to punish those who sit in one elected office and run for another. At least not in Snohomish County.
Democrat Brian Sullivan won re-election as a state representative then launched his campaign for County Council before results of the election results were certified.
Last year, Republican state Rep. Mike Hope of Lake Stevens won his second term then entered the race for county executive. He didn't win but voters in his legislative district supported him overwhelmingly.
Taxpayers might pick up the tab for a special election should Inslee leave office early. He also could make a donation to the state treasury to essentially pay for it.
It would all depend on when he leaves. If it's before March 8, 2012, the law requires picking a successor through what would be two special elections -- a primary and a general.
Best case from a financial point of view is for Inslee to leave after March 8. No special elections would be held. It would be filled with the winner of the regular November election.
It does mean Inslee's seat would be left vacant a little bit longer. Does anyone think Washington will suffer if it has one less member of Congress in the late spring, summer and fall?
Ultimately, Inslee's got to decide how badly he wants to be governor. Washington voters have never elected a sitting member of Congress as governor. He risks letting history repeat itself if he stays.
Political reporter Jerry Cornfield's blog, The Petri Dish, is at www.heraldnet.com. Contact him at 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
As police Inspector Harry Callahan might put it to him: "Do you feel lucky, Jay? Well do ya?"
It's a difficult decision and a subject of conversation among those in Inslee's inner circle as well as a few orbiting his campaign.
It wouldn't even be a topic if the Democratic congressman appeared to be zooming effortlessly toward victory over Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna in 2012.
But he's not.
Inslee is trailing in every poll done to this point. Democrats back him less enthusiastically than Republicans embrace McKenna. And those decisive self-described independent voters in the middle aren't leaning Democrat right now.
Inslee has never conducted a full throttle statewide campaign and his is grinding its gears right now.
Meanwhile, McKenna is conducting an aggressive campaign in all 39 counties, some days combining official and political stops in the same trip. He did it last Tuesday in a visit to Snohomish County.
He toured Providence Hospital as AG then morphed into candidate McKenna for lunch with area business owners at an Everett restaurant.
(Coincidentally, at the same hour he was campaigning, the state Senate Judiciary Committee was discussing a bill to rein in the power of the attorney general. One of McKenna's top staff attorneys put forth a spirited argument against the bill.)
Inslee can dial for dollars and hold fundraising events in the other Washington. But his absence inhibits his ability to gain traction as a candidate.
What's the political cost of not finishing his term in a Congress which a recent Rasmussen Poll found to be less popular than the U.S. turning communist?
He'll take his lumps. Certainly McKenna and operators of the Republican spin machinery will dump on him for not keeping his commitment to voters.
Most voters probably won't give it much thought. They've shown little propensity to punish those who sit in one elected office and run for another. At least not in Snohomish County.
Democrat Brian Sullivan won re-election as a state representative then launched his campaign for County Council before results of the election results were certified.
Last year, Republican state Rep. Mike Hope of Lake Stevens won his second term then entered the race for county executive. He didn't win but voters in his legislative district supported him overwhelmingly.
Taxpayers might pick up the tab for a special election should Inslee leave office early. He also could make a donation to the state treasury to essentially pay for it.
It would all depend on when he leaves. If it's before March 8, 2012, the law requires picking a successor through what would be two special elections -- a primary and a general.
Best case from a financial point of view is for Inslee to leave after March 8. No special elections would be held. It would be filled with the winner of the regular November election.
It does mean Inslee's seat would be left vacant a little bit longer. Does anyone think Washington will suffer if it has one less member of Congress in the late spring, summer and fall?
Ultimately, Inslee's got to decide how badly he wants to be governor. Washington voters have never elected a sitting member of Congress as governor. He risks letting history repeat itself if he stays.
Political reporter Jerry Cornfield's blog, The Petri Dish, is at www.heraldnet.com. Contact him at 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
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