In its annual Thanksgiving travel forecast released Tuesday, AAA predicts 43.6 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home over the holiday, up just 0.7 percent from last year.
But while more people are traveling, it appears that the pent-up demand seen following the recession has largely dissipated. Demand grew a healthy 8 percent and 6 percent, respectively, in the two previous Thanksgiving holiday periods even though economic growth was moderate. Now, AAA says it will take a stronger economy to spur a significant jump in travel demand going forward.
"Despite mild improvements in unemployment, the housing market and greater consumer optimism, the economy is still struggling to keep its head above water," AAA said in its forecast.
The number of travelers forecast to drive, fly or hop on a train or bus this holiday is still 26 percent below the peak in 2005 and 14 percent below 2007.
Air travel is expected to decline, one sign that many households continue to feel financially pinched. AAA expects 3.14 million people to fly, down from 3.2 million a year earlier. Even with gas at a current national average of $3.44 per gallon, driving the family from New England to the Midwest to see the relatives is still cheaper than flying.
And filling up the tank will take less money than people expected when the survey was conducted in early October. That's because of a dramatic drop in gas prices. The national average has declined 35 cents per gallon in the last month. AAA expects further declines through the holiday. Still, the price of gas on Thanksgiving Day should be around last year's record of $3.32 per gallon.
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