GOP basic strategy for 2016 looks deeply unsettled

WASHINGTON — The Republican Party’s road map for winning presidential elections looks hazier than ever as GOP lawmakers and others reject what many considered obvious lessons from Mitt Romney’s loss last year.

House Republicans are rebelling against the key recommendation of a party-sanctioned post-mortem: embrace “comprehensive immigration reform” or suffer crippling losses among Hispanic voters in 2016 and beyond.

Widespread rejection of warnings from establishment Republicans goes beyond that, however. Many activists say the party simply needs to articulate its conservative principles more skillfully, without modifying any policies, even after losing the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections.

Despite Romney’s poor showing among female voters, House Republicans this past week invited renewed Democratic taunts of a “war against women” by passing the most restrictive abortion measure in years.

Despite corporate fears of the economic damage that would result from a default on U.S. obligations, GOP lawmakers are threatening to block an increase in the government’s borrowing limit later this year if President Barack Obama won’t accept spending cuts he staunchly opposes.

Republicans have lots of time to sort out their priorities and pick a nominee before 2016. They may need it.

Party activists appear far from agreed on even basic questions, such as whether to show a more conservative face to voters versus a moderate face, and whether to seek a libertarian-leaning, tea party-backed nominee as opposed to a more traditional Republican such as Romney.

“There are pretty vigorous debates going on within the party,” said Kevin Madden, a top Romney adviser.

The most immediate one centers on the only major policy recommendation from a party-commissioned report written after Romney’s defeat. Citing dismal showings among the fast-growing Hispanic electorate, the report said Republicans “must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform. If we do not, our party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only.”

Many Republicans flatly reject the advice.

“If the goal of it is to try to fix presidential politics, I think it’s the wrong thing to do,” said Rep. James Lankford, R-Okla. He and many other House Republicans say the best way to attract Hispanics is with the basic conservative pitch used elsewhere: less government, low taxes, personal freedom.

But Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said these Republicans are fooling themselves. If Hispanics “think you really are going to deport their grandmother and you’ve got a hard heart about this kind of stuff,” Graham said, “your economic ideas don’t resonate.”

“It’s impossible winning the presidency getting 27 percent of the Hispanic vote, 30 percent of the Asian vote and 7 percent of the African-American vote,” Graham said. “America is changing.”

Actually, Romney did slightly worse. He won 26 percent of the Asian-American vote and 6 percent of the black vote. He did best among older white voters, a steadily declining share of the electorate.

Many Republicans say their biggest presidential problems involve tone and perceptions, not their stands on issues. If GOP Senate candidates avoid saying incendiary things, such as pregnancies don’t result from “legitimate rape,” the party’s appealing economic message can break through and thrive, these Republicans say.

Last November, “a huge chunk of our problem was tone and temperament,” said Mike McKenna, a Republican consultant and pollster. Obama’s team also did a far better job of identifying and contacting potential supporters, he said.

“A much, much smaller part of the problem was policy,” McKenna said. “It’s not like we’re the Whig party on the verge of extinction,” he said, so there’s no need for panic.

Opinion polls tend to support his view that perceptions are hurting Republican candidates more than policy positions are. A Pew Research Center poll in May found that those surveyed gave neither party an advantage on handling gun control, immigration or the economy.

In general terms, however, people view Republicans less favorably than they do Democrats. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted this spring found that 53 percent of registered voters felt the Democratic Party “cares about the needs and problems of people like you,” while just 37 percent said the GOP did.

Republican strategist Steve Lombardo said the party needs to change its tactics and messaging, not its underlying principles. The problem, he said, is not “that the party is conservative, but rather that it spends too much time on issues that are not salient to a wide swath of Americans.” That includes, Lombardo said, “dozens of House votes to overturn Obamacare with no hope of Senate passage.”

Tea party activists say Republican candidates should push conservative values even more forcefully.

“Stop compromising,” said Jessica Johnson, 37, of Charleston, W.Va., who attended a political rally this past week in Washington. “Some conservatives get frustrated and stay home” on Election Day, she said, so an unapologetic defense of low taxes and less regulation could improve GOP presidential chances.

From a presidential campaign standpoint, motivating the party’s base is only half the battle, said Dan Schnur, a former top Republican aide who teaches political science at the University of Southern California. The other half, he said, is attracting centrist voters who determine general elections in crucial states.

But a Republican House member who reaches out to moderate voters could invite a challenge from the right in his next GOP primary, Schnur said. “Doubling down on social conservatism is a perfect strategy for maintaining or expanding a House majority,” he said, but it won’t win the up-for-grabs voters a presidential nominee must have.

Some Republican strategists say it’s counterproductive to try to reconcile House members’ ambitions with those of presidential contenders. A successful presidential candidate “must differentiate himself from the very toxic GOP congressional brand,” said Steve Schmidt, a top aide to the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain.

Schmidt said the most promising GOP contender will probably be a governor or “an iconoclast senator” who is seen as standing apart from Washington’s partisan gridlock that so angers voters.

Some Democrats ask why they should save Republicans from questionable decisions such as blocking immigration changes.

“When 500,000 Latino citizens turn 18 every year and become potential voters, Republicans seem hellbent on lining up and jumping off a demographic cliff,” Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., said in a recent speech. “As a Democrat, I should probably just stand back and watch.”

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

A firefighter stands in silence before a panel bearing the names of L. John Regelbrugge and Kris Regelbrugge during the ten-year remembrance of the Oso landslide on Friday, March 22, 2024, at the Oso Landslide Memorial in Oso, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
‘Flood of emotions’ as Oso Landslide Memorial opens on 10th anniversary

Friends, family and first responders held a moment of silence at 10:37 a.m. at the new 2-acre memorial off Highway 530.

Julie Petersen poses for a photo with images of her sister Christina Jefferds and Jefferds’ grand daughter Sanoah Violet Huestis next to a memorial for Sanoah at her home on March 20, 2024 in Arlington, Washington. Peterson wears her sister’s favorite color and one of her bangles. (Annie Barker / The Herald)
‘It just all came down’: An oral history of the Oso mudslide

Ten years later, The Daily Herald spoke with dozens of people — first responders, family, survivors — touched by the deadliest slide in U.S. history.

Victims of the Oso mudslide on March 22, 2014. (Courtesy photos)
Remembering the 43 lives lost in the Oso mudslide

The slide wiped out a neighborhood along Highway 530 in 2014. “Even though you feel like you’re alone in your grief, you’re really not.”

Director Lucia Schmit, right, and Deputy Director Dara Salmon inside the Snohomish County Department of Emergency Management on Friday, March 8, 2024, in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
How Oso slide changed local emergency response ‘on virtually every level’

“In a decade, we have just really, really advanced,” through hard-earned lessons applied to the pandemic, floods and opioids.

Ron and Gail Thompson at their home on Monday, March 4, 2024 in Oso, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
In shadow of scarred Oso hillside, mudslide’s wounds still feel fresh

Locals reflected on living with grief and finding meaning in the wake of a catastrophe “nothing like you can ever imagine” in 2014.

Alan Dean, who is accused of the 1993 strangulation murder of 15-year-old Bothell girl Melissa Lee, appears in court during opening statements of his trial on Monday, March 18, 2024, at Snohomish County Superior Court in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Guilty: Jury convicts Bothell man in long-unsolved 1993 killing

Even after police arrested Alan Dean in 2020, it was unclear if he would stand trial. He was convicted Thursday in the murder of Melissa Lee, 15.

Ariel Garcia, 4, was last seen Wednesday morning in an apartment in the 4800 block of Vesper Dr. (Photo provided by Everett Police)
Everett police searching for missing child, 4

Ariel Garcia was last seen Wednesday at an apartment in the 4800 block of Vesper Drive. The child was missing under “suspicious circumstances.”

The rezoned property, seen here from the Hillside Vista luxury development, is surrounded on two sides by modern neighborhoods Monday, March 25, 2024, in Lake Stevens, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Despite petition, Lake Stevens OKs rezone for new 96-home development

The change faced resistance from some residents, who worried about the effects of more density in the neighborhood.

Rep. Suzan DelBene, left, introduces Xichitl Torres Small, center, Undersecretary for Rural Development with the U.S. Department of Agriculture during a talk at Thomas Family Farms on Monday, April 3, 2023, in Snohomish, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Under new federal program, Washingtonians can file taxes for free

At a press conference Wednesday, U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene called the Direct File program safe, easy and secure.

Former Snohomish County sheriff’s deputy Jeremie Zeller appears in court for sentencing on multiple counts of misdemeanor theft Wednesday, March 27, 2024, at Snohomish County Superior Court in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Ex-sheriff’s deputy sentenced to 1 week of jail time for hardware theft

Jeremie Zeller, 47, stole merchandise from Home Depot in south Everett, where he worked overtime as a security guard.

Everett
11 months later, Lake Stevens man charged in fatal Casino Road shooting

Malik Fulson is accused of shooting Joseph Haderlie to death in the parking lot at the Crystal Springs Apartments last April.

T.J. Peters testifies during the murder trial of Alan Dean at the Snohomish County Courthouse on Tuesday, March 26, 2024 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Bothell cold case trial now in jury’s hands

In court this week, the ex-boyfriend of Melissa Lee denied any role in her death. The defendant, Alan Dean, didn’t testify.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.