Here’s a breakdown of the Western Hockey League Western Conference semifinal between the Everett Silvertips, the No. 2 seed from the U.S. Division, and the Seattle Thunderbirds, the regular-season U.S. Division champions:
Offense
Goals scored (regular season): Everett 182, Seattle 228
Power play (regular season): Everett 17.0 percent (21st in the WHL), Seattle 23.7 percent (third)
Seattle trailed Everett in the U.S. Division standings for much of the regular season before surging past the Tips in the final weeks.
Seattle’s offense ranks in the middle of the WHL. The Thunderbirds’ 3.13 goals-per-game average was 13th in the league. From a scoring perspective, Seattle mirrors the Portland Winterhawks, the team the Tips vanquished in four games in the first round. The T-Birds scored two fewer goals than the Winterhawks during the regular season, so they present a similar challenge for the Tips’ defense.
Seattle’s leading goal scorer during the regular season, Ryan Gropp, did not play in the first round while dealing with an upper-body injury and he remains week-to-week. Mathew Barzal was Seattle’s top point producer in the regular season and tallied seven assists in Seattle’s first-round sweep of Prince George. The New York Islanders prospect is regarded as one of the best open-ice players in the league and he beat Everett with the overtime game-winner at ShoWare Center on Jan. 9.
Keegan Kolesar (30 goals, 31 assists in the regular season) will miss Game 1 as he completes a suspension handed down by the league for his hit on Prince George defenseman Sam Ruopp in Game 3 of their first-round series. Kolesar and Calvin Leth each scored three times in Seattle’s series sweep, while Ethan Bear, Scott Eansor, Alexander True and Nolan Volcan each scored twice.
For Everett, it’s been captain Dawson Leedahl (three goals, two assists) and Matt Fonteyne (two goals, three assists) leading the way with a number of other players chipping in. Last Tuesday’s 5-3 victory over Portland, for example, featured five different goal scorers. That’s been the key to Everett’s success all season and a big reason why the second-lowest scoring team in the league is in the second round of the playoffs. Carson Stadnyk and Kevin Davis each had four assists and Brandon Ralph scored three goals in the four games — a mark that represents 60 percent of his regular-season goal-scoring output.
The T-Birds had the third-best power play unit in the league during the regular season while the Tips ranked next to last. However, Everett converted at 20 percent of its chances in the first round against Portland and Seattle was held to 12.5 percent against Prince George. Once again, the Tips need to remain extremely disciplined to limit Seattle’s chances on the man advantage.
Advantage: Seattle
Defense
Goals allowed (regular season): Everett 172, Seattle 186
Penalty kill (regular season): Everett 77.2 percent (16th), Seattle 85.3 percent (first)
The Silvertips were the second-stingiest team in the league in terms of allowing goals, but the Thunderbirds were right behind in third, allowing 14 more goals than Everett. Those figures suggest a tight, low-scoring series.
Everett finished 6-2-1-1 against Seattle this season and held a distinct advantage through the first seven games of the season series. The Tips outscored the T-Birds 23-10 in winning six of the first seven matchups, but the Thunderbirds won the final three games — 2-0, 2-1 in a shootout, and 1-0.
The biggest shift was the emergence of Seattle goalie Landon Bow. The T-Birds acquired Bow from Swift Current at the trade deadline. He fashioned a 4-3 record with a 1.89 goals-against average and a .931 save percentage and two shutouts in seven games against the Tips during the regular season. Bow’s success carried over into the Prince George series as he finished 4-0 with a 1.43 goal-against average and a .935 save percentage.
The Silvertips had a well-documented goaltending situation against Portland as backup Mario Petit won the first three games with a 1.33 goal-against average and a .953 save percentage while starter Carter Hart nursed a lower-body injury. Hart returned to clinch the series with a Game 4 victory and it’s safe to assume Hart will get the nod between the pipes given his success against the T-Birds. He fashioned a 1.32 GAA with a shutout and a .951 save percentage in 10 games against Seattle this season. In fact, Petit played just over nine minutes against Seattle when Hart was briefly removed for precautionary reasons after taking a puck to the shoulder area on Feb. 27 in Kent.
Once again Seattle’s prowess on special teams could be a big factor. The Tips were in the lower half of the league in the penalty kill during the regular season while the T-Birds led the WHL. Both teams killed at 83.3 percent in their respective first-round series.
Advantage: Everett
Intangibles
Neither team can point to a recent tradition of extended postseason success. The Tips last reached the second round a year ago, but haven’t advanced to the Western Conference finals since 2006 when they were swept by Vancouver. Seattle hasn’t reached the conference finals since 2001, when the T-Birds lost in five games to Kelowna.
Everett’s six wins in the first seven meetings between the teams were a big reason the Tips managed to hang on to first place in the U.S. Division for so long. Everett already has surpassed the expectations of most observers simply by making it this far.
Seattle, in contrast, was picked by most to win the division and was expected to make it this far, so all the pressure is on the Thunderbirds.
Seattle ended the regular season strong while Everett floundered, but both teams are coming into the series following convincing four-game sweeps and more than a week off from competition, mitigating any potential fatigue factor.
Advantage: Even
Overall
This is a difficult series to predict because either team could conceivably win in five, six or seven games. Seattle beat Everett just twice in regulation during the regular season, 2-0 and 1-0. The T-Birds’ other two wins came in a 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout that went seven rounds. Neither process is used to decide a victor in the postseason since the teams simply play at full strength until someone scores.
Seattle has the better offense, but that will be the case with any team Everett faces. The Tips have a slightly better defense, although the recent play of Bow has made the teams more even in that regard.
During the regular season, Everett had three “decisive” victories — if you can call them that — with a pair of 4-1 wins and a 5-1 victory back on Jan. 16. Simply put, if the Silvertips score three or more goals, they win. If not, the outcome is very much a toss-up, and Everett scored only once against Bow in the final three regular-season meetings.
Prediction: Seattle in seven games
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