The GOP racing form: First edition

WASHINGTON — With Ted Cruz announcing and Rand Paul and Marco Rubio soon to follow, it’s time to start handicap the horses and make enemies. No point in wasting time on the Democratic field. There is none. The only thing that can stop Hillary Clinton is an act of God, and he seems otherwise occupied. As does Elizabeth Warren, the only Democrat who could conceivably defeat her.

On to the GOP. First Tier: 1. Marco Rubio. Trails badly in current polls, ranking seventh at 5 percent, but high upside potential.

Assets: Foreign policy looms large in the current cycle, and Rubio is the most knowledgeable and fluent contender on everything from Russia to Cuba to the Middle East. The son of Cuban immigrants, he can break into flawless Spanish (so can Jeb Bush) and speak passionately about the American story in a party that lost the Hispanic vote by 44 points in 2012.

Liabilities: His Gang of Eight immigration apostasy, though his current enforcement-first position has wide appeal. Second, after Barack Obama, will voters want another first-term senator with no executive experience? (Same for Cruz and Paul.)

Major appeal: Fresh, young, dynamic persona is a powerful counterpoint to Clinton fatigue. Odds: 3-1.

2. Jeb Bush. The consensus favorite (though I remain a bit skeptical). Solid, soft-spoken, serious, with executive experience and significant achievements as governor. What he lacks in passion, he makes up for in substance. And he has shown backbone in sticking to his semi-heretical positions on immigration and Common Core.

Obvious liability: His name. True, it helps him raise tens of millions of dollars, but it saddles him with legacy and dynastic issues that negate the inherent GOP advantage of running a new vs. old, not-again campaign against Hillary. Odds: 7-2.

3. Scott Walker. A fine record of conservative achievement. Has shown guts and leadership in taking on labor unions and winning three elections (five if you count proxy elections) against highly energized Democrats. Good, rousing speech in Iowa, but has stumbled since, flubbing routine questions on evolution and patriotism, then appearing to compare the Islamic State to Wisconsin demonstrators. Rookie mistakes, easily forgotten — if he learns from them.

.Most encouraging sign: ability to maintain altitude after meteoric rise. Numbers remain steady. And his speeches continue to impress.

Second Tier: 4. Chris Christie. Some politicians have their one moment. Christie might have missed his in 2012 when his fearless in-your-face persona was refreshingly new. Over time, however, in-your-face can wear badly. That plus Bridgegate cost him traction and dropped him out of the first tier. Biggest problem: being boxed out ideologically and financially by Jeb Bush for the relatively-moderate-governor-with-cross-aisle-appeal slot. 12-1.

5. Ted Cruz. Grand, florid campaign launch with matching rhetoric. Straightforward base-oriented campaign. Has developed a solid following. Could break out, especially in debate. 15-1.

6. Mike Huckabee. Great name recognition, affable, popular. But highly identified with social/cultural issues — how far can that carry him beyond Iowa and evangelicals? 15-1.

7. Rand Paul. Events have conspired against him. Obama’s setbacks and humiliations abroad have created a national mood less conducive to non-interventionism. His nearly 13-hour anti-drone filibuster would not fly today. Is trying to tack back, even signing the anti-Iran-deal letter. Youth appeal, though outreach to minorities less successful. High floor of devoted libertarians; low ceiling in today’s climate. 30-1.

Longer Shots: 8. Carly Fiorina. Getting her footing. She is best placed to attack Hillary and has done so effectively. Can she do a Huckabee 2008 and, through debates, vault to the first tier? Unlikely. But because she’s talented and disciplined, not impossible. 50-1.

9. Ben Carson. Polling high, but a novice making cringe-worthy gaffes, for example, on the origins of Islam and on gay choice (“a lot of people who go into prison straight, and when they come out they’re gay”). And not knowing that the Baltic States are in NATO. Truly good man, brilliant doctor, great patriot. But not ready for the big leagues. Chance of winning? Zero.

Others: Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and John Kasich — still below radar. If they surface, they’ll be featured in the next racing form.

Charles Krauthammer is a Washington Post columnist. HIs email address is letters@charleskrauthammer.com.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Opinion

toon
Editorial cartoons for Thursday, March 28

A sketchy look at the news of the day.… Continue reading

Initiative promoter Tim Eyman takes a selfie photo before the start of a session of Thurston County Superior Court, Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2021, in Olympia, Wash. Eyman, who ran initiative campaigns across Washington for decades, will no longer be allowed to have any financial control over political committees, under a ruling from Superior Court Judge James Dixon Wednesday that blasted Eyman for using donor's contributions to line his own pocket. Eyman was also told to pay more than $2.5 million in penalties. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
Editorial: Initiative fee increase protects process, taxpayers

Bumped up to $156 from $5, the increase may discourage attempts to game the initiative process.

Protecting forests and prevent another landslide like Oso

Thank you for the powerful and heartbreaking article about the Oso landslide… Continue reading

Boeing’s downfall started when engineers demoted

Boeing used to be run by engineers who made money to build… Continue reading

Learn swimming safety to protect kids at beach, pool

Don’t forget to dive into water safety before hitting the pool or… Continue reading

Comment: Why shootings have decreased but gun deaths haven’t

High-capacity magazines and ‘Glock switches’ that allow automatic fire have increased lethality.

Washington state senators and representatives along with Governor Inslee and FTA Administrator Nuria Fernandez break ground at the Swift Orange Line on Tuesday, April 19, 2022 in Lynnwood, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Editorial: Community Transit making most of Link’s arrival

The Lynnwood light rail station will allow the transit agency to improve routes and frequency of buses.

An image of Everett Mayor Cassie Franklin is reflected in a storefront window during the State of the City Address on Thursday, March 21, 2024, at thee Everett Mall in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Editorial: State of city address makes case for Everett’s future

Mayor Franklin outlines challenges and responses as the city approaches significant decisions.

FILE - The massive mudslide that killed 43 people in the community of Oso, Wash., is viewed from the air on March 24, 2014. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren, File)
Editorial: Mapping landslide risks honors those lost in Oso

Efforts continue in the state to map areas prone to landslides and prevent losses of life and property.

toon
Editorial cartoons for Wednesday, March 27

A sketchy look at the news of the day.… Continue reading

Burke: ‘Why not write about Biden, for once?’ Don’t mind if I do.

They asked; I’ll oblige. Let’s consider what the president has accomplished since the 2020 election.

Comment: Catherine missed chance to dispel shame of cancer

She wasn’t obligated to do so, but she might have used her diagnosis to educate a sympathetic public.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.