Ben Carson leads Clinton in key states

NEW YORK — Hillary Clinton is still leading the Democratic primary in three key swing states — Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania — but a new poll suggests she may have more to worry about than whether Vice President Joe Biden enters the race: Neurosurgeon Ben Carson could potentially pose a threat to the entire Democratic field.

If the election were held today and Carson were the Republican nominee, he would beat Clinton, Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders in the battleground states of Ohio and Pennsylvania and also best the Vermont independent in Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. No president has won the general election since 1960 without carrying two out of those three swing states.

In Ohio, Carson would defeat Biden by 4 percentage points (46 percent to 42 percent), Clinton by 9 points (49 percent to 40 percent) and Sanders by 12 points (48 percent to 36 percent), according to the poll. In Pennsylvania, the retired neurosurgeon would beat Clinton by 9 points (49 percent to 40 percent) and Sanders by 10 points (47 percent to 37 percent). And while Biden, who was born in Pennsylvania, is often called the state’s third senator, Carson would best him by 5 points there, 47 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll. In Florida, Carson would defeat Sanders 46 percent to 40 percent, but trails Biden by a margin of 45 percent to 42 percent, and Clinton by 45 to 42 percent.

The poll is the latest evidence that the political outsider is on an upswing, at least for now. Carson enjoyed a rise in the polls after the first Republican primary debate in August and raised $20 million during the third quarter. His primary numbers are not quite as encouraging. He still trails Donald Trump by a margin of 28 percent to 16 percent in Florida, by 23 percent to 18 percent in Ohio, and by 23 percent to 17 percent in Pennsylvania, but is the stronger of the two men against the top Democrats.

“Trump, despite his strong showing in mock Republican primaries, fares worst among the GOP candidates matched against the three Democratic aspirants — giving some credence to pundits who say the billionaire could be every Democrats’ favorite GOP nominee.” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

The poll also shows more good news for Biden, who has yet to announce whether he will mount a campaign. While Clinton would lose to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (43 percent to his 44 percent) and Sen. Marco Rubio (44 percent to his 45 percent) in Florida if the election were held today, Biden would defeat both Republicans by 3 percentage points, according to the poll. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, Biden would beat Bush, Rubio, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina while Clinton trails all three.

“When we get past the playoffs to the World Series, the general election face-off, Biden does better against leading Republicans than does Clinton or Sanders,” Brown said.

The swing state poll was conducted from Sept. 25 to Oct. 5. The Florida portion surveyed 1,173 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent. In Ohio, Qunnipiac questioned 1.180 voters and the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent. In Pennsylvania, 1,049 voters were surveyed, and the poll had a margin of plus or minus 3 percent.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

Trader Joe’s customers walk in and out of the store on Monday, Nov. 20, 2023 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
New Trader Joe’s opens this week at Everett Mall

It’s a short move from a longtime location, essentially across the street, where parking was often an adventure.

Ian Bramel-Allen enters a guilty plea to second-degree murder during a plea and sentencing hearing on Wednesday, March 6, 2024, at Snohomish County Superior Court in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
‘Deep remorse’: Man gets 17 years for friend’s fatal stabbing in Edmonds

Ian Bramel-Allen, 44, pleaded guilty Wednesday to second-degree murder for killing Bret Northcutt last year at a WinCo.

Firefighters respond to a small RV and a motorhome fire on Tuesday afternoon in Marysville. (Provided by Snohomish County Fire Distrct 22)
1 injured after RV fire, explosion near Marysville

The cause of the fire in the 11600 block of 81st Avenue NE had not been determined, fire officials said.

Ashton Dedmon appears in court during his sentencing hearing on Tuesday, March 5, 2024, at Snohomish County Superior Court in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Everett Navy sailor sentenced to 90 days for fatal hit and run

Ashton Dedmon crashed into Joshua Kollman and drove away. Dedmon, a petty officer on the USS Kidd, reported he had a panic attack.

A kindergarten student works on a computer at Emerson Elementary School on Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024, in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
‘¡Una erupción!’: Dual language programs expanding to 10 local schools

A new bill aims to support 10 new programs each year statewide. In Snohomish County, most follow a 90-10 model of Spanish and English.

Cassie Franklin, Mayor of Everett, delivers the annual state of the city address Thursday morning in the Edward D. Hansen Conference Center in Everett, Washington on March 31, 2022.  (Kevin Clark / The Herald)
At Everett mayor’s keynote speech: $35 entry, Boeing sponsorship

The city won’t make any money from the event, city spokesperson Simone Tarver said. Still, it’s part of a trend making open government advocates wary.

Logo for news use featuring the Tulalip Indian Reservation in Snohomish County, Washington. 220118
Woman drives off cliff, dies on Tulalip Reservation

The woman fell 70 to 80 feet after driving off Priest Point Drive NW on Sunday afternoon.

Everett
Boy, 4, survives fall from Everett fourth-story apartment window

The child was being treated at Seattle Children’s. The city has a limited supply of window stops for low-income residents.

People head out to the water at low tide during an unseasonably warm day on Saturday, March 16, 2024, at Lighthouse Park in Mukilteo, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Everett shatters record high temperature by 11 degrees

On Saturday, it hit 73 degrees, breaking the previous record of 62 set in 2007.

Snohomish County Fire District #4 and Snohomish Regional Fire & Rescue respond to a motor vehicle collision for a car and pole. The driver was pronounced dead at the scene, near Triangle Bait & Tackle in Snohomish. (Snohomish County Sheriff’s Office)
Police: Troopers tried to stop driver before deadly crash in Snohomish

The man, 31, was driving at “a high rate of speed” when he crashed into a traffic light pole and died, investigators said.

Alan Dean, who is accused of the 1993 strangulation murder of 15-year-old Bothell girl Melissa Lee, appears in court during opening statements of his trial on Monday, March 18, 2024, at Snohomish County Superior Court in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
31 years later, trial opens in Bothell teen’s brutal killing

In April 1993, Melissa Lee’s body was found below Edgewater Creek Bridge. It would take 27 years to arrest Alan Dean in her death.

Logo for news use featuring the municipality of Snohomish in Snohomish County, Washington. 220118
Man dies after crashing into pole in Snohomish

Just before 1 a.m., the driver crashed into a traffic light pole at the intersection of 2nd Street and Maple Avenue.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.