All are at the table for Syrian peace talks, except Syrians

“Syrian peace talks” is one of those phrases where the soothing words don’t fit the nightmare reality. But the indefatigable Secretary of State John Kerry is making another try this weekend in Vienna, and there’s more to this effort than just his good intentions.

What’s driving this round of diplomacy is the hope that Russia needs a settlement of the Syria mess even more than the United States does. President Vladimir Putin intervened militarily, elbows out, in late September. But the campaign has been frustrating for Moscow so far, and Russia’s resources are limited. A gradual political transition may serve Putin’s interests.

Unfortunately, this Syrian peace process doesn’t include any Syrians yet. That would seem a fatal defect, but Kerry &Co. are working the problem.

Kerry’s biggest achievement has been getting Saudi Arabia and Iran to sit down at the table with the U.S. and Russia. The Saudi-Iranian feud is at the heart of the Syrian conflict, which is in some ways a proxy war. This negotiation is at least a step back from the sectarian inferno.

President Obama has enlisted Sheik Mohammed bin Zayed, the military leader of the United Arab Emirates, in coaxing the Saudis to participate. The Iranians have been wary diplomatic partners, too. Iranian hawks don’t like the negotiations, but they seem to have been overruled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who doesn’t want Iranians coming home from Syria in body bags.

The Syria talks are proceeding in a careful, step-by-step process that’s as delicate as building a house of cards. Three working groups have been established to focus on the elements that would be necessary for de-escalation and eventual agreement.

The first working group is trying to define the common terrorist enemies shared by the U.S., Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Europe. This enemies list has two obvious candidates: the Islamic State, and Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaida affiliate in Syria.

The finesse point is deciding whether a militant Islamist group called Ahrar al-Sham, which is backed by the Saudis and Qataris but sometimes fights with the extremists, should also be on the blacklist. The U.S. and Britain seem willing to treat Ahrar al-Sham as a part of the solution, rather than the problem, if it behaves more responsibly. Ahrar al-Sham may determine by its actions which side it will be on.

Working group No. 2 is weighing who should represent the Syrian opposition if peace talks broaden. The opposition is a miasma of different groups, personalities and agendas, so this isn’t an easy task. The U.S. and its allies have their roster of preferred groups. Russia has its own list of opposition figures who have been invited to Moscow for talks.

The challenge is to merge these lists without triggering a new round of feuding. One name that’s said to be on both U.S. and Russian lists is Moaz al-Khatib, a former leader of the opposition coalition. He’s a respected figure around whom a broader front might be constructed.

Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. special envoy on Syria, would probably oversee the discussions, if the opposition could agree on some basic positions. De Mistura has tried, without much success, to negotiate local cease-fires, but he is respected by both the opposition and some members of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. If the stars are in alignment, it would be Russia’s job to push the Assad regime into the negotiations, too.

Assad’s tenure as president is the most divisive issue of all. Kerry got the negotiations rolling last month by convincing everyone to put the Assad problem in the “too hard” basket, for now. But it’s understood by everyone (including the Russians) that any viable peace process must lead to Assad’s eventual departure, within two years or so. Otherwise, it’s a dead letter.

The third working group is charged with what may be the most delicate issue — how to organize humanitarian aid if the other diplomatic cogs are in place. Delivery of assistance will be impossible unless there’s the equivalent of a cease-fire. The regime and opposition elements that agree to the cease-fire could then, in theory, work together (or at arm’s length) to defeat the common terrorist enemies.

Like any peace process that’s contemplated while a war is raging, this one is a series of “ifs” stacked on top of each other. But Kerry has made a start, and as he showed during the Iran nuclear talks, he is one persistent diplomat.

David Ignatius’ email address is davidignatius@washpost.com.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Opinion

toon
Editorial cartoons for Thursday, March 28

A sketchy look at the news of the day.… Continue reading

Initiative promoter Tim Eyman takes a selfie photo before the start of a session of Thurston County Superior Court, Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2021, in Olympia, Wash. Eyman, who ran initiative campaigns across Washington for decades, will no longer be allowed to have any financial control over political committees, under a ruling from Superior Court Judge James Dixon Wednesday that blasted Eyman for using donor's contributions to line his own pocket. Eyman was also told to pay more than $2.5 million in penalties. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
Editorial: Initiative fee increase protects process, taxpayers

Bumped up to $156 from $5, the increase may discourage attempts to game the initiative process.

Protecting forests and prevent another landslide like Oso

Thank you for the powerful and heartbreaking article about the Oso landslide… Continue reading

Boeing’s downfall started when engineers demoted

Boeing used to be run by engineers who made money to build… Continue reading

Learn swimming safety to protect kids at beach, pool

Don’t forget to dive into water safety before hitting the pool or… Continue reading

Comment: Why shootings have decreased but gun deaths haven’t

High-capacity magazines and ‘Glock switches’ that allow automatic fire have increased lethality.

Washington state senators and representatives along with Governor Inslee and FTA Administrator Nuria Fernandez break ground at the Swift Orange Line on Tuesday, April 19, 2022 in Lynnwood, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Editorial: Community Transit making most of Link’s arrival

The Lynnwood light rail station will allow the transit agency to improve routes and frequency of buses.

An image of Everett Mayor Cassie Franklin is reflected in a storefront window during the State of the City Address on Thursday, March 21, 2024, at thee Everett Mall in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Editorial: State of city address makes case for Everett’s future

Mayor Franklin outlines challenges and responses as the city approaches significant decisions.

FILE - The massive mudslide that killed 43 people in the community of Oso, Wash., is viewed from the air on March 24, 2014. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren, File)
Editorial: Mapping landslide risks honors those lost in Oso

Efforts continue in the state to map areas prone to landslides and prevent losses of life and property.

toon
Editorial cartoons for Wednesday, March 27

A sketchy look at the news of the day.… Continue reading

Burke: ‘Why not write about Biden, for once?’ Don’t mind if I do.

They asked; I’ll oblige. Let’s consider what the president has accomplished since the 2020 election.

Comment: Catherine missed chance to dispel shame of cancer

She wasn’t obligated to do so, but she might have used her diagnosis to educate a sympathetic public.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.