SERIES HISTORY
Sunday’s game is the 34th regular season meeting between Seattle and Arizona. The Cardinals hold a 17-16 lead, including a 39-32 victory at CenturyLink Field on Nov. 15. However, when the Seahawks played the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium late last season they blew Arizona out 35-6 to take control of the NFC West race. Seattle is 3-6 all-time against the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
KEY MATCHUP
Cardinals QB Carson Palmer vs. the Seahawks pass rush
Palmer is not known for his legs. The 12-year veteran has always been a pocket passer, and his mobility was done no favors after he suffered his second torn ACL in his knee last season.
So that should make Palmer an easy target for the pass rush, right?
Wrong.
Despite not being the most mobile of NFL quarterbacks, Palmer is adept at avoiding the rush. He’s been sacked just 25 times this season, and the 25 sacks the Cardinals have allowed is tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. Part of that is the quality protection Palmer receives, and part of that is Palmer’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly. But part of it is also Palmer’s surprising elusiveness, something that enables Arizona to take more than its share of shots deep down the field.
Palmer’s abilities were on full display in Arizona’s victory at Seattle seven weeks ago. The Seahawks actually managed to get good pressure on Palmer throughout the game, and Seattle did get to Palmer three times for sacks. But there were more instances of Seahawks rushers looking like they had Palmer lined up, only for Palmer to make a quick shift to give himself the time to get a pass off. The net result was while Palmer completed just 29 of his 47 attempts, he still torched the Seattle defense for 363 yards and three touchdowns.
“Well, he’s got savvy,” said Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, who coached Palmer in college at USC. “He’s been playing quarterback as long as anybody can play to his age, he’s been playing since he was a little kid. He gets the game, it makes sense to him. His legs are good, better than they’ve been in past years, and can handle the movement and stuff. He did a very good job of just sliding and moving, and slipping around, to give himself a second shot when we did pressure him, and he played a fantastic football game.”
Seattle has generally done a good job pressuring the quarterback this season. However, Seattle had no sacks in last week’s 23-17 loss to St. Louis, and sack leader Michael Bennett is dealing with a toe injury that required an injection this week. If the Seahawks can’t get pressure on Palmer and get him out of rhythm, they’ll get carved up.
KEY NUMBER
483 The number of points scored by Arizona through the first 16 weeks of the season, the most by any team in the NFL.
IMPORTANT INJURIES
Seahawks — RB Marshawn Lynch (abdominal) misses his seventh straight game, while TE Luke Willson (concussion) and G J.R. Sweezy (concussion) both sit out after getting injured last week. T Russell Okung (calf), seemed to be making progress during the week, but is now considered doubtful. SS Kam Chancellor (pelvis) has a chance to play after missing two games, and DT Jordan Hill (toe) is expected back after missing four straight.
Cardinals — Arizona has some questions on defense as starting LB Marcus Golden (knee) is out, while DT Frostee Rucker (ankle), S Rashad Johnson (ankle/illness) and LB Dwight Freeney (knee) are all considered questionable. WR Michael Floyd (knee) is also questionable.
BREAK IT DOWN
The Seahawks will win if they …
Rediscover the running game. Seattle ranks third in the NFL with 141.6 rushing yards per game. However, the Seahawks’ running game was completely shut down by St. Louis last week, and that hindered the pass game that dominated the previous five weeks. The running back committee had success the previous week against Cleveland, and Seattle needs to find that again.
Exploit FS Tony Jefferson. The Cardinals suffered a serious blow when Pro Bowl free safety Tyrann Mathieu suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago against Philadelphia. Jefferson, his replacement, was solid in last week’s 38-8 romp over Green Bay, but it remains to be seen whether Jefferson has Mathieu’s playmaking ability.
Slow down RB David Johnson. Johnson is quietly having a remarkable rookie season. He began the season as Arizona’s No. 3 running back, but he’s now the main option and is a threat both on the ground and in the air — he has 599 yards from scrimmage the past four games since taking over as the starter. Seattle needs to prevent Johnson from adding to his 13 touchdowns.
The Cardinals will win if they …
Blitz QB Russell Wilson effectively. Wilson recently went through arguably the best five-game stretch by a quarterback in NFL history. However, he was blitzed regularly by St. Louis last week and his effectiveness was diminished. Arizona is one of the most blitz-happy teams in the league, and the Cardinals recorded nine sacks last week, so they need to follow the formula provided by the Rams.
Stop Seattle on third down. The Seahawks have been on fire on third down the past six games, converting an absurd 60 percent of their third downs to keep drives alive. Arizona’s defense is one of the league’s best on third down, limiting opponents to a 34.4 percent conversion rate, so the Cardinals have the ability to slow Seattle’s third-down run.
Spread the receiver wealth. Arizona has a great mix at receiver, with Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd all providing something a little different. In their previous meeting it was Floyd who burned Seattle for 113 yards and two touchdowns. But the Cardinals are at their best when all three are involved, forcing opponents to divvy up their defensive resources.
PICK
Cardinals 27, Seahawks 20
Arizona may be the best team in the NFL at the present time, having won nine straight. The Cardinals will also be motivated Sunday, as there’s still a chance they can earn the NFC’s top seed to the playoffs. The Seahawks can’t really help themselves much with regards to a playoff seed, and with several key players banged up it may behoove Seattle to err on the side of getting healthy rather than going all-out for the win.
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