SERIES HISTORY
This is the 11th meeting between Seattle and Carolina, and the sixth in the past four seasons — including both the regular season and playoffs. The Seahawks hold a 7-3 advantage and won both the previous playoff matchups, including last season’s 31-17 victory in the divisional round in Seattle. However, the Panthers prevailed when the teams met in Week 6 this season, with Carolina scoring two touchdowns in the final four minutes to turn a 23-14 deficit into a stunning 27-23 victory. Seattle won each of the past three regular-season games at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, though all of those contests were decided by five points or fewer.
KEY MATCHUP
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson vs. Panthers QB Cam Newton
It’s arguably a battle of the front-runners for NFL MVP.
Newton is the one who seems to be getting the most support. The fifth-year player had a breakout season as he went 296-for-495 for 3,837 yards. His 35 touchdown passes were a career high, while his 10 interceptions were a career low. He also rushed 132 times for 636 yards and another 10 TDs as he guided the Panthers to a league-best 15-1 record.
“I expect the ball to be in his hands,” Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner said. “Everybody’s trying to make it to the Super Bowl, so the playmakers are going to have the ball in their hands, and he’s a playmaker for their team. So I expect him to have the ball in his hands a lot, whether it’s throwing the ball, running the ball, whatever.”
Wilson, meanwhile, stated his own case for MVP. He finished the season 329-for-483 for 4,024 yards and 34 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. Like Newton, he’s also capable with his legs, rushing 103 times for 553 yards. Wilson had substantially better numbers than Newton in completion percentage (68.1-59.8), yards per attempt (8.3-7.8) and passer rating (110.1-99.4). So while Newton has the wins on his side, Wilson has the numbers on his.
“The thing you have to do to have success is get him off his mark, but keep him within range,” Panthers coach Ron Rivera said of Wilson. “People always talk about getting quarterbacks off their spot or off their mark. Well, if you get this guy off his mark and let him get outside, he’s going to create. So we’ve got to be on point as far as that’s concerned.”
Both players got better as the season went along. In the final seven weeks of the regular season Wilson threw 24 touchdown passes, one interception, and had a passer rating of 132.8. Newton was nearly Wilson’s equal over that stretch, tossing 20 TDs vs. one interception and compiling a passer rating of 116.7.
Whichever quarterback is best able to emulate his numbers down the stretch is likely to be the one who leads his team to victory.
KEY NUMBER
14.0 The per-game point differential between Carolina’s league-leading scoring offense (31.3) and Seattle’s league-leading scoring defense (17.3) during the regular season. One of those numbers will have to budge.
IMPORTANT INJURIES
Seahawks — RB Marshawn Lynch appears set to finally return from his abdominal injury after missing eight games. He’s listed as probable after practicing in full for the second straight week. TE Luke Willson (concussion) also is expected back. The only player not expected to go is FB Will Tukuafu (hamstring), who’s listed as doubtful.
Panthers — Starting CB Charles Tillman suffered a torn ACL in Carolina’s regular-season finale and was placed on injured reserve. WR Ted Ginn Jr. (knee) is listed as questionable, but Panthers coach Ron Rivera said Friday he expected Ginn to play. Back-up RB Fozzy Whittaker (ankle) is the only active player expected to miss the game.
BREAK IT DOWN
The Seahawks will win if they …
Protect the football. Carolina led the league in takeaways (39) and turnover margin (plus-20) during the regular season. Meanwhile, Seattle finished third in the league in fewest turnovers with 16. The Seahawks’ coaching staff preaches the importance of valuing the ball. Never has that message been more important than in this game.
Exploit CBs Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan. Carolina lost starting CB Charles Tillman and nickel CB Bene Benwikere to injuries late in the season. The Panthers have an All-Pro at one corner in Josh Norman, but now Carolina is having to reach deeper into the depth chart for its other corners, and that could provide an opening for Seattle’s passing game.
Prevent Carolina QB Cam Newton from making big plays with his legs. Newton’s running ability is what separates him from other NFL quarterbacks, as he possesses a unique blend of size, strength and speed. If the Seahawks want to advance, they need to force Newton to beat them with his arm rather than with his legs.
The Panthers will win if they …
Maximize TE Greg Olsen. Olsen had a Pro Bowl season, catching 77 passes for 1,104 yards, and he torched the Seahawks in Week 6 with seven grabs for 131 yards and the game-winning touchdown. Seattle has had difficulty containing tight ends this season — the Seahawks are ranked 26th in the NFL by FootballOutsiders.com against tight ends — so Olsen could be Carolina’s game breaker.
Win the line of scrimmage on offense. Seattle’s defensive line has played well this season, led by DEs Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. However, Carolina’s offensive line has been strong, too, with C Ryan Kalil and G Trai Turner being named to the Pro Bowl. Winning this strength-vs.-strength matchup will be critical.
Get pressure on Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. Wilson was at his best during the second half of the season when he was throwing from the pocket. Carolina is a team capable of forcing Wilson out of his comfort zone, finishing sixth in the league with 44 sacks, including four of Wilson when the teams played in Week 6. The Panthers need a similar effort to prevent Wilson from getting in rhythm.
PICK
Seahawks 22, Panthers 18
Seattle had the game won in Week 6, only to suffer another of the fourth-quarter collapses that plagued the team early in the season. Those fourth-quarter woes are a thing of the past. Carolina may have home-field advantage, but the Seahawks have had plenty of success on the road against the Panthers in recent years. If Marshawn Lynch is back to his full self, Seattle will have the weapons to pull off the upset.
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