Let me tell you a story.
Flash back to late January, and the Seattle Mariners are about to hold their pre-spring training media luncheon.
I’d been spending almost all my time covering the Seattle Seahawks, whose season had just ended. I knew the Mariners hired a new general manager in Jerry Dipoto, and I knew Dipoto had made more moves than John Travolta pulled off in Saturday Night Fever. But because I was so engrossed in the Seahawks, none of those Mariners moves stuck in my head.
Therefore, the day before the media luncheon, I decided I needed to make a concerted effort to understand just what the Mariners had as they headed into spring training. The roster had turned over so much — just seven of the 25 players who were on the opening-day roster in 2015 survived to opening day this year — I had no grasp on whether the collection of players assembled was any good.
After looking up statistics from the previous season and jotting down a projected roster, what was my reaction?
This may actually be all right.
Mariners fans are probably tired of hearing it, but there actually may be reason for optimism heading into 2016. It’s the same line that’s been muttered pretty much every spring between 2004 and the present, yet Seattle failed to reach the playoffs in any of those seasons and finished with a winning record on just three of those 12 occasions. It’s understandable if Mariners fans have tuned out the rosy predictions that inevitably accompany spring training.
I hate to do this to the jaded, but I actually see reason for optimism for the Mariners this season.
The biggest reason for optimism is the offense.
Huh?
You mean the same offense that scored just 656 runs last season, ranking 13th out of 15 teams in the American League?
You mean the same offense that finished dead last in the AL in runs scored four straight years from 2009-2012?
You mean the same offense that hasn’t been league average in runs scored since 2007?
Yes, Safeco Field has something to do with Seattle’s low run output, as the Mariners play half their games in a park that strongly favors pitchers. But Safeco Field didn’t prevent the 2001 Mariners from leading the league with 927 runs, a number Seattle hasn’t been within 256 runs of the past eight years. There’s no getting around it, Seattle’s offense has been a train wreck.
But as dire as Seattle’s offense has been there’s reasons for hope in 2016.
At least Seattle’s offense has been trending upward. The Mariners have seen a modest increase in run output each of the past five seasons, building from the pitiful 513 the team scored in 2010.
Seattle, despite the turnover, retained the base of its offense in Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. Cruz and Seager are dependable power sources, while Cano was back to his normal self in the second half last year (.331 average, 15 home runs) after looking done in the first half (.251, six homers) — plus Cano is healthy after undergoing offseason surgery to repair a sports hernia.
The Mariners’ lineup will also have more depth with the additions of Adam Lind and Nori Aoki. Lind won’t win any home-run titles, but he’s a proven power hitter against right-handed pitchers, while Aoki provides much-needed on-base skills for the top of the lineup. Too often in the past Seattle would threaten, only to reach the rally-killing black-hole portion of the lineup. The automatic outs should dissipate this year.
However, there’s one big concern about Seattle’s lineup: Age.
While the Mariners’ lineup looks improved, it’s also long in the tooth. When including platoon partners, Seattle has 11 players who begin the season expected to be regulars in the lineup. On opening day their average age is 31.18 years. Eight of the 11 are on the wrong side of 30.
This presents multiple potential problems. First, players who have passed 30 are generally past their physical primes. Therefore, there’s always the chance that declining skills will result in a production downturn. Second, older players are more prone to injury, and the Mariners don’t possess the kind of organizational depth to withstand losing multiple players for large chunks of time.
If the offense falters, Seattle won’t be able to depend on the pitching staff to pick up all the slack, despite an improved outfield defense. The rotation, led by King Felix, should be OK. But age could be an issue there, too, with Hernandez showing signs of declining velocity and Hisashi Iwakuma a constant injury concern. The bullpen is a complete mystery with all seven members being new faces from a year ago.
But if the Mariners catch a little luck and the lineup remains substantially healthy, they finally have a chance to win games with their bats.
Seattle finished 76-86 last year and in fourth place in the AL West. Statistical projections have the Mariners making a modest improvement this year. FanGraphs predicts Seattle as finishing the season with an 82-80 record, while Baseball Prospectus tabs the Mariners at 84-78.
And given both the organization’s offseason overhaul and Mariners’ history the past decade, a winning record would be something worth celebrating.
Check out Nick Patterson’s Seattle Sidelines blog at http://www.heraldnet.com/seattlesidelines, and follow him on Twitter at @NickHPatterson.
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