I have a little egg on my face.
My column Sunday was about how well the Mariners and Sounders were playing, and that I thought their play warranted more attention than some of the offseason Seahawks news. Because of high school assignments I had to have that column filed on Friday, meaning it didn’t take into account the weekend’s results. I had a smidgen of concern that the weekend results may taint my column, but I figured that any damage done wouldn’t be enough to render my column null and void before it ran in the paper.
So what happened? Of course, the Mariners were swept by the Angels and the Sounders were shut out by Dallas. Saturday night, just hours before Sunday’s paper was delivered, was particularly brutal, as the Mariners saw an epic comeback foiled by a bullpen meltdown, while the Sounders fell back into their inability-to-finish mode in their 2-0 defeat. I guess it was yet another example of the curse of the sportswriter.
But while the weekend’s results had the effect of photo bombing my column, I urge you to stick with the message. I still believe the Mariners and Sounders are legit.
I want to particularly examine the Mariners, since baseball provides a litany of statistical information. Here’s four numbers which indicate the Mariners are still a team in ascendancy:
– Run differential: The Mariners have scored scored 165 runs and allowed 139, giving them a run differential of plus-26. The 0.7 run differential per game is the eighth best mark in the majors. The Pythagorean estimator for the team’s record gives the team the exact same 21-16 record it currently has, meaning the team’s record is neither lucky nor unlucky based on runs scored. Project that out to a full season and Seattle gets 92 wins, and the last team to miss the postseason with 92 or more wins was Cleveland Indians way back in 2005, at a time before there was a second wild-card team.
– OPS+: This is an advanced stat that measures a combination of on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while also adjusting for the ballpark. The Mariners’ OPS is usually deflated because of the difficult hitting conditions at Safeco Field. But when the park is taken out of play, Seattle’s OPS+ of 107 ranks sixth in the majors. So in context, the Mariners have been one of the better offensive teams in baseball.
– SO9 and SO/W: In the statistical world, many traditional statistics have been abandoned. Among pitchers, it’s now widely acknowledged that stats like wins, losses and ERA are not necessarily accurate indicators of how well a pitcher has performed. But two stats I believe in are strikeouts per nine innings and strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Mariners rank ninth in the majors in both SO9 (8.6) and SO/W (2.92), so in the situations the pitchers can control Seattle ranks in the top third of the majors.
So the numbers still indicate the Mariners are a playoff team through 37 games, despite the hiccup over the weekend, and few were talking about Seattle being a strong playoff contender before the season began.
Soccer doesn’t have the same kind of statistical information available, but even there the numbers indicate the Sounders have performed better then their 4-5-1 record. Seattle is above average in shots on goal per game (tied for seventh out of 20 teams at 5.2), corner kicks per game (third at 6.2) and crosses per game (second at 13.6). While possession stats are not the be-all and end-all in the soccer world, the Sounders’ numbers suggest a team that’s getting plenty of the ball in the opposition’s third of the field.
Yes, it was a rough weekend for the Mariners and Sounders. But stick with them. I still believe good things lie ahead for both teams.
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