Pacific pact analysis predicts modest boost for U.S. economy

WASHINGTON — The world’s largest regional trade pact, between the United States and 11 Pacific Rim nations, would marginally boost the U.S. economy and jobs over the next 15 years, but it also would erode employment in manufacturing sectors, according to a new analysis by an independent commission.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is expected to boost the nation’s gross domestic product by nearly $43 billion by 2032 and create an estimated 128,000 additional jobs, the U.S. International Trade Commission concluded in an 800-page report released Wednesday. Those increases would be measured against current baseline projections if the agreement is not enacted.

At the same time, the commission concluded that the TPP could cause a 0.2 percent decline in manufacturing jobs when compared with projections without TPP enactment, a finding that is likely to be seized on by labor unions and other opponents of the accord.

Overall, the trade deal “would have positive effects, albeit small as a percentage of the overall size of the U.S. economy,” the commission wrote in its report.

Congress mandated the study as part of the “fast-track” trade powers granted to President Obama last summer. Publication of the findings was required before lawmakers schedule any votes on the trade accord, which includes Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Malaysia and Vietnam.

The Obama administration is hoping to get the TPP agreement ratified by lawmakers before the president leaves office in January, but Republican leaders on Capitol Hill have been reticent to move forward amid widespread skepticism playing out on the 2016 campaign trail. The leading presidential candidates in both parties – presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump, and contenders for the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vermont) – have said they are opposed to the deal.

Sen. Orrin G. Hatch, R-Utah, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, said in a statement that while the TPP “has the potential to yield significant economic benefits,” the details of the trade commission report “must be studied closely so that we have a clear understanding of what TPP will mean for the American economy.”

The commission’s conclusions are likely to be used by both sides in the debate over the TPP. Other independent studies, including one from the World Bank, also have shown incremental benefits to the U.S. economy, with larger proportional gains accruing to countries with smaller economies. The World Bank said Vietnam stood to become the biggest beneficiary of the deal with economic growth of 10 percent by 2030.

The trade commission found that U.S. exports would grow by an additional $27 billion over that time under the terms of the TPP, while imports would grow by $49 billion. Incomes would grow in the United States by an extra $57 billion.

“While the ITC understandably adopts a conservative approach to these reports, the historical record has shown that export growth under past trade agreements has exceeded projections by a considerable margin,” the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said in a statement.

But Ilana Solomon, director of the Sierra Club’s responsible trade program, said the commission report offered “further evidence that the Trans-Pacific Partnership would be a disaster.”

Among the various employment sectors, agriculture and food would have the highest relative gains of an additional 0.5 percent growth. The service sector would grow by an additional 0.1 percent, while manufacturing would be 0.1 percent lower under the TPP than if the deal is not enacted, the study found.

The study noted that the TPP deal also aims to enact new regulatory provisions to maintain the open flow of information across international borders and address intellectual property rights, and address competition from state-owned businesses.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

A firefighter stands in silence before a panel bearing the names of L. John Regelbrugge and Kris Regelbrugge during the ten-year remembrance of the Oso landslide on Friday, March 22, 2024, at the Oso Landslide Memorial in Oso, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
‘Flood of emotions’ as Oso Landslide Memorial opens on 10th anniversary

Friends, family and first responders held a moment of silence at 10:37 a.m. at the new 2-acre memorial off Highway 530.

Julie Petersen poses for a photo with images of her sister Christina Jefferds and Jefferds’ grand daughter Sanoah Violet Huestis next to a memorial for Sanoah at her home on March 20, 2024 in Arlington, Washington. Peterson wears her sister’s favorite color and one of her bangles. (Annie Barker / The Herald)
‘It just all came down’: An oral history of the Oso mudslide

Ten years later, The Daily Herald spoke with dozens of people — first responders, family, survivors — touched by the deadliest slide in U.S. history.

Victims of the Oso mudslide on March 22, 2014. (Courtesy photos)
Remembering the 43 lives lost in the Oso mudslide

The slide wiped out a neighborhood along Highway 530 in 2014. “Even though you feel like you’re alone in your grief, you’re really not.”

Director Lucia Schmit, right, and Deputy Director Dara Salmon inside the Snohomish County Department of Emergency Management on Friday, March 8, 2024, in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
How Oso slide changed local emergency response ‘on virtually every level’

“In a decade, we have just really, really advanced,” through hard-earned lessons applied to the pandemic, floods and opioids.

Ron and Gail Thompson at their home on Monday, March 4, 2024 in Oso, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
In shadow of scarred Oso hillside, mudslide’s wounds still feel fresh

Locals reflected on living with grief and finding meaning in the wake of a catastrophe “nothing like you can ever imagine” in 2014.

The rezoned property, seen here from the Hillside Vista luxury development, is surrounded on two sides by modern neighborhoods Monday, March 25, 2024, in Lake Stevens, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Despite petition, Lake Stevens OKs rezone for new 96-home development

The change faced resistance from some residents, who worried about the effects of more density in the neighborhood.

Rep. Suzan DelBene, left, introduces Xichitl Torres Small, center, Undersecretary for Rural Development with the U.S. Department of Agriculture during a talk at Thomas Family Farms on Monday, April 3, 2023, in Snohomish, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Under new federal program, Washingtonians can file taxes for free

At a press conference Wednesday, U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene called the Direct File program safe, easy and secure.

Former Snohomish County sheriff’s deputy Jeremie Zeller appears in court for sentencing on multiple counts of misdemeanor theft Wednesday, March 27, 2024, at Snohomish County Superior Court in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Ex-sheriff’s deputy sentenced to 1 week of jail time for hardware theft

Jeremie Zeller, 47, stole merchandise from Home Depot in south Everett, where he worked overtime as a security guard.

Everett
11 months later, Lake Stevens man charged in fatal Casino Road shooting

Malik Fulson is accused of shooting Joseph Haderlie to death in the parking lot at the Crystal Springs Apartments last April.

T.J. Peters testifies during the murder trial of Alan Dean at the Snohomish County Courthouse on Tuesday, March 26, 2024 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Bothell cold case trial now in jury’s hands

In court this week, the ex-boyfriend of Melissa Lee denied any role in her death. The defendant, Alan Dean, didn’t testify.

A speed camera facing west along 220th Street Southwest on Tuesday, Nov. 21, 2023 in Edmonds, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
New Washington law will allow traffic cams on more city, county roads

The move, led by a Snohomish County Democrat, comes as roadway deaths in the state have hit historic highs.

Mrs. Hildenbrand runs through a spelling exercise with her first grade class on the classroom’s Boxlight interactive display board funded by a pervious tech levy on Tuesday, March 19, 2024 in Marysville, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Lakewood School District’s new levy pitch: This time, it won’t raise taxes

After two levies failed, the district went back to the drawing board, with one levy that would increase taxes and another that would not.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.