Hopes of state GOP rest in Snohomish County

In the race for governor, Snohomish County will once again be a critical battleground for votes.

The leader of the state Republican Party insists if they can win a majority in the county for the first time since 2004, Washington will elect its first GOP executive since 1980.

“If we flip Snohomish County, we win statewide,” party chairwoman Susan Hutchison proclaimed in Pasco earlier this month at the start of the state convention.

Such boasts are an election-year staple of state GOP leaders because Snohomish County, Washington’s third most-populous county, is a perennial combat zone with its large bounty of potential votes.

Of late, Republicans have had little success in winning the electoral battles. Snohomish is still mostly a blue county. Its voters routinely elect a Democratic majority in the state legislative delegation, congressional delegation and county government.

“We are a different party than we were four years ago because we know how to win,” Hutchison said.

Republicans won a hard-fought special election for a state Senate seat in south King County in 2015, she said. And Republicans gained seats in the state House and Senate in 2014 elections as well, she noted.

This year the GOP is looking at the race between Republican Janice Huxford and Democrat John Lovick for a vacant seat in the 44th Legislative District as a chance to add to their total in Snohomish County.

“When you have people excited about a legislative race like in the 44th District, they work in it, knock on doors and it helps the party turn out more Republican voters,” Hutchison said.

And she’s counting on Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump returning to Washington, and campaigning in Snohomish County, to help energize voters.

“We’ll have him in Snohomish County, you can count on it,” she said.

Richard Wright, the chairman of the Snohomish County Democratic Party, said he doesn’t envision the electorate losing its blueness.

“I read that the (state Republican Party) was again trying to target Snohomish County for electoral gains,” he wrote in an email. “I say ‘again,’ because this has been their go-to strategy for some time. The idea of the Republican message of hate and exclusion has been continually rebuffed by the voters of Snohomish County.”

Math matters

Political strategists often say that for a Republican to be elected governor they must win Snohomish and Pierce counties and at least 40 percent of the vote in King County.

It nearly happened in 2004 when Republican Dino Rossi won on election night and again in the machine recount but lost the final hand count to Democratic candidate Christine Gregoire.

Rossi did win Snohomish County, by 6,400 votes, and Pierce County. He garnered 39.1 percent in King County. That’s the last time Snohomish County voted Republican for governor.

Chris Vance, who is the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, was state party chairman at the time. He said the success came from organization and focusing on certain voters, not specific counties.

“The key for Republicans is to win moderate, independent suburban voters whether they live in Lynnwood or Bellevue,” he said. “You’ve got to be able to appeal to them. Dino Rossi appealed to these voters. Rob McKenna did too, but not enough.”

That was in 2012, when McKenna, the state’s Republican attorney general, lost to Inslee, a Democratic congressman. While McKenna did win in Pierce County, he lost in Snohomish and garnered only 38 percent in King County.

Inslee won eight of the state’s 39 counties. His 2.5 percent margin of victory in Snohomish County was the second smallest. It amounted to 8,000 votes, which Republicans think is surmountable.

“It can be done,” said Chad Minnick of Monroe, a political strategist for Republican candidates including Huxford. “There’s never been a year like this year.”

Like in 2004, voters are upset and angry and there is a lot of angst among them in Snohomish County, he said.

But unlike then, when the seat was open, this time there is an incumbent at which voters can channel their feelings.

“Their frustration has a face and it is Jay Inslee,” Minnick said.

The Theory of Trump

Hutchison is confident that having Donald Trump as the party’s presidential nominee will further boost the chances of winning Snohomish County. The two met in California this past week and she said he told her he intends to “come back to Washington multiple times.”

“What I believe and, I think it will bear itself out, is Donald Trump will be able to get low propensity voters to turn out,” she said. “I think Donald Trump is the reason we’ll be able to flip Snohomish County.”

That is music to the ears of Jamal Raad, spokesman for the state Democratic Party.

“We are encouraged by calls for Donald Trump to visit Washington state this year because that should further suppress Republican votes here,” he said Friday.

“Once people hear directly from Donald Trump, the xenophobia and Islam phobia that is propelling his campaign, many independent and Republican voters will be turned off,” he said.

A Trump visit could be problematic for Bill Bryant, the Republican challenger to Inslee. Bryant has avoided answering questions about Trump and refused to say if he will vote for Trump this fall.

Democrats are already working to wrap Bryant and Trump together in this election.

“We are going to win by talking to voters to get the word out on how dangerous Donald Trump’s agenda will be for Snohomish County,” Raad said.

Ground zero

Through the years, leaders of the state Republican Party have been more intent on winning a majority of Snohomish County votes for governor than on helping the local GOP build a lasting political presence.

Today there’s only one Republican on the five-member County Council and just seven of the 21 state legislative seats representing the county are held by members of the GOP.

At times recruiting candidates hasn’t been easy for those running the county party; one year they ran a professional magician for county executive.

Billye Brooks-Sebastiani, chairwoman of the Snohomish County Republican Party, said there’s a different mood this year.

“Susan’s message and my message are the same. There is a lot of focus on the national campaign and we’re going to work very hard to get our nominee elected,” Brooks-Sebastiani said. “Along with that, we have some really critical elections elsewhere to work on. We have a very concerted and unified message.”

She said the state party already is providing financial resources and staff for a ground game needed to increase turnout of voters. The emphasis is in the 44th Legislative District.

“It’s not going to be easy,” she said. “I do think we can do it.”

Wright, her Democratic counterpart, doesn’t.

“Pretending that you care about the people of our county hasn’t fooled us yet, and I don’t anticipate that it will fool anybody this time either,” he said.

Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623; jcornfield@heraldnet.com