The countries that could be next if Britain leaves the EU

LONDON — As British voters flock to the polling stations, European Union leaders are preparing for a scenario few of them would have seriously considered to be a possibility only months ago: Brexit.

There was no lack of doomsday rhetoric in recent weeks. European Council President Donald Tusk warned that Britain’s leaving the EU could seriously threaten “Western political civilization.”

Fears that the EU could break apart after a Brexit vote might be a bit far-fetched, but there certainly are other countries where demands for similar referendums could gain momentum.

Sweden

The country views itself as the Scandinavian equivalent of Britain: It refused to introduce the euro as a currency. And in terms of EU politics, Britain and Sweden agree on 90 percent of all issues.

Hence, a Brexit would raise particular worries in Sweden. The country accepted hundreds of thousands of refugees last year but has struggled to integrate some of them. Consequently, Sweden’s far right has gained momentum in a development that has reminded some of the rise of pro-Brexit U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) in Britain.

Most Swedes still have a positive impression of the EU. However, this could potentially change if Britain voted “out.” In that case, one of the central questions would be whether EU leaders will try to strengthen cohesion by deepening cooperation and focusing on core members, or whether they will loosen the union to allow national governments to have a bigger say.

Swedes probably would start to have bigger doubts about whether their voice as a smaller country without the euro would still be heard in Brussels, should the EU continue its integration process.

Denmark

Denmark held a referendum last December, although with a much more limited impact: Danes decided against handing over more powers to the EU.

That alone is not enough to predict whether Danes would really want to vote “out”: In fact, most citizens of EU member states think that Brussels should not become more powerful than it is, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.

As in Sweden’s case, two arguments would be particularly likely to influence voter behavior. First, many Danes fear that more immigration or an influx of refugees could threaten the small nation’s welfare system. Second, Denmark has so far relied on Britain as a strong ally in negotiations with the EU as both countries have had similar policy stances.

“Without Britain, Denmark won’t have the locomotive to tow Danish interests,” political scientist Marlene Wind of the University of Copenhagen was quoted as saying by Bloomberg News.

Greece

The Greek government’s debt crisis has mostly disappeared from the public debate and the headlines — but it will return sooner rather than later.

Greek newspaper Kathimerini fears that this ongoing crisis combined with a Brexit could ultimately become a threat to Greece’s EU membership status.

“Athens’ main concern should be that a victory for Leave will weaken the eurozone’s resolve to bolster Greece’s position within the single currency, which could require more tools and a greater level of integration than currently exists,” the paper argued.

“In many ways, Greece depends on greater burden sharing in a closer-integrated eurozone. But this would likely remain off the cards after Brexit,” Wolfango Piccoli, research director of political risk consulting company Teneo Intelligence, was quoted as saying by the paper.

Hence, what Greece fears most is not an anti-EU referendum influenced by right-wing parties, but rather the EU pushing Greece out in order to save cohesion among the remaining members.

The Netherlands

Dutch newspaper Algemeen Dagblad had a clear message for the British ahead of Thursday’s referendum. “Don’t leave me this way,” a cover story’s headline read.

But this may not reflect how most Dutch think about the EU.

Geert Wilders, the head of a right-wing populist party, has supported a Brexit and hopes for a similar referendum to take place in the Netherlands. “If we want to survive as a nation, we have to stop immigration and stop Islamization,” Wilders told the BBC in a recent interview.

“We cannot do that inside the European Union,” said Wilders — who is is currently leading in the country’s polls.

Hungary

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is not known to be a particular friend of the EU, either. In fact, he has gained quite the opposite reputation. Last May, European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker greeted Orban, saying, “Hello, dictator,” while TV cameras were recording the awkward incident.

Despite disagreements, Orban recently urged Britain to remain part of the EU — but he did so most likely because EU-skeptical Britain is an important partner for the Budapest-based government.

Orban is planning to hold a referendum in Hungary that could hurt EU cohesion. After last year’s influx of refugees into the country, Hungarians will be asked to decide whether the EU should be allowed to resettle refugees despite a lack of consent by national parliaments affected by the decision.

In Hungary, it might not be a clear-cut “in or out” referendum about EU membership that could cause trouble but rather a referendum that is designed to indirectly question Brussels’s authority.

France

The French are some of the biggest EU skeptics: 61 percent have an unfavorable view of the union. (In comparison, in Hungary, only 37 percent of the population hold a similar opinion.)

Besides Germany, France is continental Europe’s driving force. But it also faces a multitude of problems, including a weak economy and a high terrorism threat. Some of the origins of these problems have been blamed on the EU or conditions created by its member states.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for instance, is widely known for her support for austerity measures that were adopted after the last recession. Contrary to Germany, France still has not managed to fully escape high unemployment numbers and weak economic growth. Many French also watched with disbelief when Merkel opened Germany’s borders to Syrian refugees in 2015.

This could play into the hands of the right-wing National Front party, which is expected to gain more political power in upcoming elections. The party’s leader, Marine Le Pen, has supported Brexit — indicating what could be next for France should her party ever rule the country.

Scotland as a particular case

Britain has had two crucial referendums within only two years, but in case of a Brexit it might need to prepare for a third one — and potentially Europe’s only pro-EU referendum in a long time. Scotland voted to remain part of the United Kingdom in 2014, but the country is mostly pro-EU

Considerations to join the EU are only thought experiments at this stage, but they are being conducted surprisingly publicly and in a detailed manner. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who is a member of the Scottish National Party, said a breakup would have to be discussed in case of a Brexit. Scotland also may join the euro zone as a result.

Asked whether Scotland would really be prepared for another referendum on splitting from the United Kingdom, Sturgeon said that the issue was “definitely on the table.”

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

A firefighter stands in silence before a panel bearing the names of L. John Regelbrugge and Kris Regelbrugge during the ten-year remembrance of the Oso landslide on Friday, March 22, 2024, at the Oso Landslide Memorial in Oso, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
‘Flood of emotions’ as Oso Landslide Memorial opens on 10th anniversary

Friends, family and first responders held a moment of silence at 10:37 a.m. at the new 2-acre memorial off Highway 530.

Julie Petersen poses for a photo with images of her sister Christina Jefferds and Jefferds’ grand daughter Sanoah Violet Huestis next to a memorial for Sanoah at her home on March 20, 2024 in Arlington, Washington. Peterson wears her sister’s favorite color and one of her bangles. (Annie Barker / The Herald)
‘It just all came down’: An oral history of the Oso mudslide

Ten years later, The Daily Herald spoke with dozens of people — first responders, family, survivors — touched by the deadliest slide in U.S. history.

Victims of the Oso mudslide on March 22, 2014. (Courtesy photos)
Remembering the 43 lives lost in the Oso mudslide

The slide wiped out a neighborhood along Highway 530 in 2014. “Even though you feel like you’re alone in your grief, you’re really not.”

Director Lucia Schmit, right, and Deputy Director Dara Salmon inside the Snohomish County Department of Emergency Management on Friday, March 8, 2024, in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
How Oso slide changed local emergency response ‘on virtually every level’

“In a decade, we have just really, really advanced,” through hard-earned lessons applied to the pandemic, floods and opioids.

Ron and Gail Thompson at their home on Monday, March 4, 2024 in Oso, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
In shadow of scarred Oso hillside, mudslide’s wounds still feel fresh

Locals reflected on living with grief and finding meaning in the wake of a catastrophe “nothing like you can ever imagine” in 2014.

Everett mall renderings from Brixton Capital. (Photo provided by the City of Everett)
Topgolf at the Everett Mall? Mayor’s hint still unconfirmed

After Cassie Franklin’s annual address, rumors circled about what “top” entertainment tenant could be landing at Everett Mall.

Everett
Everett man sentenced to 3 years of probation for mutilating animals

In 2022, neighbors reported Blayne Perez, 35, was shooting and torturing wildlife in north Everett.

Dorothy Crossman rides up on her bike to turn in her ballot  on Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2023 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Everett leaders plan to ask voters for property tax increase

City officials will spend weeks hammering out details of a ballot measure, as Everett faces a $12.6 million deficit.

Starbucks employee Zach Gabelein outside of the Mill Creek location where he works on Friday, Feb. 23, 2024 in Mill Creek, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Mill Creek Starbucks votes 21-1 to form union

“We obviously are kind of on the high of that win,” store bargaining delegate Zach Gabelein said.

Lynnwood police respond to a collision on highway 99 at 176 street SW. (Photo provided by Lynnwood Police)
Police: Teen in stolen car flees cops, causes crash in Lynnwood

The crash blocked traffic for over an hour at 176th Street SW. The boy, 16, was arrested on felony warrants.

The view of Mountain Loop Mine out the window of a second floor classroom at Fairmount Elementary on Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
County: Everett mining yard violated order to halt work next to school

At least 10 reports accused OMA Construction of violating a stop-work order next to Fairmount Elementary. A judge will hear the case.

Imagine Children's Museum's incoming CEO, Elizabeth "Elee" Wood. (Photo provided by Imagine Children's Museum)
Imagine Children’s Museum in Everett to welcome new CEO

Nancy Johnson, who has led Imagine Children’s Museum in Everett for 25 years, will retire in June.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.