Canada boosts forecast for wheat output

WINNIPEG, Manitoba — Canadian farmers may harvest the most wheat ever and produce the largest canola crop on record, according to a government survey.

All-wheat production will probably expand to 33.0 million metric tons, up from July’s forecast of 30.6 million tons, Statistics Canada said Friday from Ottawa. Wheat production is forecast to rise 22.0 percent from 27.1 million tons in 2012 and exceed the record harvest of 32.1 million tons in 1990. The average production estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News was 32.7 million tons.

The canola harvest in Canada, the world’s largest grower, may climb 15.9 percent to 16.0 million tons, up from July’s forecast of 14.7 million tons and surpassing the record output of 14.6 million tons in 2011, according to the report. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey forecast 16.4 million tons.

Statistics Canada said it interviewed about 10,500 farmers from Sept. 3 to Sept. 10. The estimate excludes production in British Columbia and Canada’s Atlantic provinces, which account for 2 to 4 percent of the national total, the agency said.

There are record yields being reported for crops in many areas and the market will not be surprised if canola production exceeds 16 million tons, Chuck Penner, the owner of LeftField Commodity Research, said in a telephone interview from Winnipeg before the report.

“It’s safe to say 2013 is going to be one to remember,” he said.

The average wheat yield is forecast to be a record 48.0 bushels per acre, Statistics Canada said today, up from 42.6 bushels per acre in 2012.

While planting in many parts of Western Canada was delayed this spring by excess moisture and below-normal temperatures, farmers managed to sow most of their crop by mid-June, according to reports from Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the largest grower of spring wheat. Crops progressed from good growing conditions and output is expected to be significantly higher than last year due to higher yields, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in a Sept. 18 report.

Spring-wheat yields in parts of the Prairies are as high as 80 bushels per acre, FarmLink Marketing Solutions said in a Sept. 27 report. Average to above average yields are being reported in Saskatchewan and output in Alberta is “exceptional with the quantities being the highest ever reported for virtually all crops in all regions,” according to provincial reports.

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