Picks, predictions for what’s sure to be a lively 2017 Oscars

“La La Land” is almost too perfect as a title for the year’s Oscar frontrunner. So often the Academy Awards present an evening of la la fantasy, as the movie industry applauds itself and Hollywood glitz is the order of the day.

The 89th annual Oscars, to be held tonight, Feb. 26, promise much of the same. But things might be a little different at this year’s ceremony, as winners and presenters alike will be tempted to make political statements. Not since the Vietnam War has the atmosphere been as ripe for speechifying on Oscar night.

As someone who thinks that everyone, including overpaid Hollywood actors, has the right to speak up, I have no problem with that. Awards ceremonies are a lot livelier when they go off script, in fact.

When it comes to social issues, this year’s slate marks a big distinction from last year’s criticism about black actors and filmmakers being ignored. No chance of that this time, with the attention commanded by “Moonlight,” “Hidden Figures” and “Fences.”

As in recent years, most of the big nominees are not blockbusters, but smaller films (although “Hidden Figures” and “La La Land” have made a lot of money). The exceptions are in the Best Animated Feature category, which does have some of 2016’s most popular movies.

Here’s a question about the competition itself. Is “La La Land” still the frontrunner? Six weeks ago everybody said so. Now it seems as though Damien Chazelle’s lightweight musical concoction might be viewed as just a little, well, lightweight.

As far as the actors go, you can bet the farm on Viola Davis, and feel confident about Mahershala Ali. In the lead acting categories, however, it looks a little less predictable, with the usual guessing games between old pros and new faces.

My annual rant about the lifetime-achievement Oscars being relegated to a separate event is hereby commenced. Four deserving winners were awarded this year, and they’ll presumably be mentioned (but not really honored) Sunday. For the record, they are superstar Jackie Chan, legendary documentary filmmaker Frederick Wiseman, film editor Anne V. Coates and casting director Lyn Stalmaster.

Jimmy Kimmel hosts this installment, and you can expect the usual red-carpet pre-show, which at some point will probably begin 24 hours before the actual ceremony.

In any case, it’s time to place our bets. Here are some guesses about what I think will win in the main categories, not necessarily what I think should win. Then I’ll say how I would vote, given the available nominees.

Best Picture: “Moonlight.” Going to roll with an upset pick here; I know “La La Land” is the fave (and it’s also about Hollywood, an advantage), but I just sense the voters might tend toward social issues this year — although “Moonlight” deserves better than to be limited as a social-issue picture. I think the votes will be split, and there’s even a chance that in a divided vote, “Hidden Figures” could be a sleeper. I don’t think any of the other titles have a shot: “Arrival,” “Fences,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water,” “Lion” or “Manchester by the Sea.” My Choice: “Manchester by the Sea,” the most finely-made of a pretty decent bunch.

Best Actress: Emma Stone, “La La Land.” The Academy has been very fond lately of awarding young actresses who’ve compiled impressive early-career records, so Stone would fit that profile. There is support for the great Isabelle Huppert, who got her long-overdue first Oscar nomination for “Elle,” so that’s a possibility. It’s probably not in the cards for Ruth Negga (“Loving”), Natalie Portman (“Jackie”) or fresh-faced newcomer Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”), enjoying merely her 20th Oscar nomination here. My Choice: Isabelle Huppert, a fearless turn in a tricky role.

Best Actor: Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea.” My instincts tell me to go with Denzel Washington, who gives a much bigger, Oscar-style performance in “Fences,” but the oddsmakers have been favoring Ben Affleck’s little brother, and he won a lot of critics’ awards for his intense, quiet turn as a man drowning in guilt and grief. The only other nominee with an outside chance would be Ryan Gosling for “La La Land,” but he’ll get other opportunities. Also in the loop: Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge,” and Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic.” My Choice: Casey Affleck, controlled work in a not-always sympathetic part.

Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, “Fences.” I saw the August Wilson play some years ago, and when I first read that the mighty Davis had been cast in the movie version, I said to no one in particular, “I guess she’ll finally get her Oscar.” Once they put her in the Supporting category, nobody else had a chance. The other nominees are Naomie Harris (“Moonlight”), Nicole Kidman (“Lion”), Octavia Spencer (“Hidden Figures”) and Michelle Williams (“Manchester by the Sea”). My Choice: Viola Davis, partly for the performance, partly because she’s overdue.

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight.” Although he’s in just the first third of the film, he dominates that section with an electric performance. The only serious challenger, I think, is the well-liked Jeff Bridges, for “Hell or High Water,” but even that feels like a longshot. Also nominated: Lucas Hedges (“Manchester by the Sea”), Dev Patel (who really should have been eligible for the Best Actor category for “Lion”) and Michael Shannon (“Nocturnal Animals”). Supporting Actor: My Choice: Mahershala Ali, a real revelation, and a presence in the movie even after he leaves it.

Best Director: Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight.” Jenkins managed a complicated piece of storytelling, which might give him the edge over Damien Chazelle, whose “La La Land” had the nerve to be a musical in an era when people really don’t do that anymore. It should be between those two, and not Denis Villeneuve (“Arrival”), the newly forgiven Mel Gibson (“Hacksaw Ridge”) or Kenneth Lonergan (“Manchester by the Sea”). My Choice: Kenneth Lonergan, although none of these nominees stand out to me as textbook what-great-directing-is.

Best Animated Feature: “Kubo and the Two Strings.” A wild guess here, as it’s hard to tell what the voters value in this category. “Zootopia” was a huge success, and it’s Disney, so that’s probably the odds-on favorite, while “Moana” seemed just a tad underwhelming by Disney standards. Two foreign offerings could also surprise: the very artsy “The Red Turtle” and “My Life As a Zucchini.” My Choice: “Zootopia,” in a category I admittedly don’t care about that much.

Best Original Screenplay: “Manchester by the Sea,” by Kenneth Lonergan. A widely-acclaimed writer, and a movie that probably won’t win Best Picture. However, if there’s a “La La Land” sweep, I see no reason that movie can’t take this award, too. Others: “Hell or High Water,” “The Lobster” and “20th Century Women.” My Choice: “The Lobster,” because it’s just so incredibly original.

Best Adapted Screenplay: “Moonlight,” by Barry Jenkins, based on a source by Tarell Alvin McCraney. If the award goes to “Fences,” it would be a posthumous one for August Wilson, who died in 2005 after adapting his own play. Also nominated: “Arrival,” “Hidden Figures” and “Lion.” My Choice: “Moonlight,” a sturdy coming-of-age tale with a difficult structure.

Best Documentary Feature: “O.J.: Made in America.” Some years the entries in this category are obscure. Not this time. This is a high-profile batch, and “Selma” director Ava DuVernay has a strong chance of winning with “13th,” while “Life, Animated” will win its share of votes for how darned heartwarming it is. There’s also the superb “I Am Not Your Negro” and the critically lauded “Fire at Sea.” Still, the sprawling (nearly eight-hour) “O.J.” might have the edge. My Choice: “I Am Not Your Negro,” virtually a new essay by the brilliant James Baldwin.

Best Foreign Language Film: “The Salesman” (Iran). A couple of months ago, I would’ve said the crowd-pleasing “A Man Called Ove” (Sweden) was closest to the usual winner in this category. But with “Salesman” director Asghar Farhadi caught up in the brouhaha around our nation’s travel ban, Academy members might be voting their irritation. There’s also the critics’ favorite “Toni Erdmann” (Germany) which has been winning plaudits in its current general release. The others: “Land of Mine” (Denmark) and “Tanna” (Australia). My Choice: “Toni Erdmann,” a wonderfully loony screwball comedy.

Best Music (Score): “La La Land,” Justin Hurwitz. Does it really seem possible the movie would get so much attention as a modern musical and not win this category? Not bloody likely. Personally, I loved Mica Levi’s ear-bending music for “Jackie,” but I doubt that has a real chance. Also in: “Moonlight,” “Lion” and “Passengers.” My Choice: “Jackie,” an off-balance version of a traditional score.

Best Original Song: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” from “La La Land.” Eh, who knows? But I don’t see how they deny a Best Song Oscar to a rare original musical, although this song doesn’t sound all that different from “City of Stars,” also from “La La Land.” I guess if voters mark the box with the biggest celebrity, they’ll go for Justin Timberlake’s “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from “Trolls,” but who wants to be responsible for attaching the words “Oscar-winning” to the movie “Trolls”? Also up: “The Empty Chair” from “Jim: The James Foley Story,” and “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana.” My Choice: Abstain. Don’t make me say I actually liked any of these (but I would’ve voted for “You’re Welcome,” from “Moana”).

Watch the Oscars

The 89th Oscars will be held on Feb. 26 in the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center in Hollywood, and will be televised live at 4 p.m. on ABC’s channel 4.