Why folks call me up to ask who’s going to win the governor’s race and how are they going to do it, I’ll never know.
I’m not psychic, though I did predict on the opening day of baseball season that the Mariners would not make the World Series.
Good guess.
So when the questions come, I dutifully pull out my crystal ball. The problem is, it’s cloudy and hasn’t been steam-cleaned in four years.
If I look hard enough, I can see Gov. Chris Gregoire celebrating another term and if I squint I can see Dino Rossi’s dog, W, on the mansion lawn — Hey! Don’t do that, not there.
At this point, no one issue or single factor will determine the victor. There are a lot of them that interlock and overlap and ultimately will influence voters.
I jotted a few down and darn if they didn’t all have at least one thing in common — they begin with the letter C.
Competition: There’ll be no third-party candidate snapping up votes the way Ruth Bennett did the last time.
Credit: Gregoire can claim a lot of it for what’s occurred the last three years. Rossi must figure out how to ignore it all.
Criticism: How much will special interests hurl at the candidates and how much will the candidates hurl at one another? Those words aren’t getting thrown around on TV and radio and in newspapers and blogs for nothing.
Charisma: He’s got it, she’s searching for it. He’s a salesman; she’s an ex-attorney. The more he speaks, the less he says and the better his supporters feel. She’s telling jokes and sounding less wonkish, yet there’s no escaping her lawyerly disposition.
Complacency: His voters and his party are intensely loyal, hers less so. Democratic leaders talk the talk of wanting her in for a second term; whether they walk the walk is yet to be seen.
Climate: What mood will voters be in when ballots arrive in October? Satisfied or surly could prove the simplest of motivations.
Campaign: A well-oiled field operation and a well-run get-out-the-vote drive will ensure folks cast a ballot the right way. Republicans outperformed Democrats on Election Day in 2004. The GOP mettle will be tested this time because more people will be voting at home.
Cash: You can never have enough, it seems. Already the two candidates each have received more in contributions than they did in the entire 2004 campaign. And you know where it goes …
Commercials: Brace yourself or buy TiVo. Clear and clever or downright nasty can sway emotions.
Coattails: Will Barack Obama’s reach down far enough for the governor?
Change: Obama’s pushing it, Rossi is calling for it and Gregoire is trying to show she’s been doing it.
Confusion: My state of mind with 14 weeks to go.
Political reporter Jerry Cornfield’s blog, The Petri Dish, is at www.heraldnet.com. Contact him at 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
Talk to us
> Give us your news tips.
> Send us a letter to the editor.
> More Herald contact information.
