DETROIT – It took the Las Vegas oddsmakers roughly 12 seconds after the Seahawks blew out the Carolina Panthers for the NFC title to install the Pittsburgh Steelers as three- to four-point favorites in Super Bowl XL.
So the AFC’s sixth seed is favored over the NFC’s top seed.
At least six AFC teams are better than anyone the NFC has to offer?
Is it that lopsided?
Many make the case that it is.
Not that the Seahawks care.
“We decided in training camp that we’re not going to worry about what people say or what they do,” said tailback Shaun Alexander, the league’s MVP. “We’re going to play football, and at the end of the day, we’re going to be proud of what we’ve done. That’s it.”
Conventional thinking is that Seattle took advantage of a down year in the NFC, built up its record on a schedule of patsies, cashed in on a home-field advantage in the playoffs and beat two dog-tired teams to crash the Super Bowl.
Valid? Some yes, some no.
The Seahawks swept the NFC West, six victories against teams with a combined record of 15-33. The only two NFC teams they beat with winning records were the Giants (dodging defeat by three missed game-winning Giants field goal attempts) and Dallas (a come-from-behind victory brought on by a late Jordan Babineaux interception that set up Josh Brown’s game-winning field goal).
Seattle beat an Indianapolis Colts team that rested its regulars and were mourning the tragic death of coach Tony Dungy’s son, who committed suicide.
So, the reasoning goes, how good is Seattle? How meaningful is the Seahawks’ 15-3 record?
Pretty good and very, respectively, say the players.
“I feel like we can match up with anybody,” receiver Bobby Engram said.
In fact, the players heard all about how inflated their 11-game win streak was, coming against subpar competition. It’s become a kind of rallying cry (albeit a common one), that they’ve gotten little respect all season and that doubters will get an extra-large look at how good they really are Sunday in Super Bowl XL.
“We have been overlooked all season and everyone is talking about how easy it has been for us,” safety Michael Boulware said after the Seahawks’ 34-14 destruction of Carolina in the NFC title game. “Now, we have shown the world that we deserve to be here, and hopefully we can get this thing done and win the whole thing.”
Even the doubters have to be impressed with Seattle’s offense, starting with what’s considered to be the league’s best offensive line. On the left are two All-Pros in Steve Hutchinson and Walter Jones. Center Robbie Tobeck is a late addition to the Pro Bowl.
They, along with guard Chris Gray, and tackle Sean Locklear, made it possible for Shaun Alexander to run for a league-leading 1,880 yards and score a league-record 28 touchdowns.
And don’t forget fullback Mack Strong, who, in his 13th season, earned his first Pro Bowl spot this season for his devastating blocking.
As with any good team, Seattle’s offense starts with the run. The matchup against the Steelers’ run defense is simply delicious.
And that’s where the game will be won or lost.
Pittsburgh allowed a league-low average of 3.4 yards per rush in the regular season. Up front, watch for Tobeck’s matchup against Steeler nose tackle Casey Hampton.
While Hampton won’t ever lead the NFL in tackles, he absolutely eats up blockers and clears the way for Pittsburgh’s swift, fierce linebackers to flow to the ball. Tobeck, who is very smart and technically sound, has to use his quickness to get to Hampton and lock him up.
Strong is a tremendous lead blocker. If you like collisions, watch Strong on Pittsburgh’s linebackers. This will be huge. With its 3-4 front, the Steelers can change attack angles and vary their run blitzes.
It’s easy for blockers to become frustrated. The key for Seattle is to avoid frustration and the temptation to abandon the running game. Even though quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is among the most accurate passers in the NFL, why take the ball out of Alexander’s hands?
It takes patience and smarts. Seattle has both.
On paper, the Steelers certainly played the tougher schedule. They also come in as the anointed “hot team,” having won their past seven games, their last three coming on road games in the playoffs. One came against the powerful Colts, which is a very impressive win.
Seattle, however, has won 13 of its past 14. Given the premise that there exists but a fine line between the league’s great and bad teams, that stands for a lot.
Rather than who beat whom, I prefer to look at individual matchups, such as the most crucial one described above. From here, Seattle’s vaunted offensive line wins a close battle with Pittsburgh’s front seven, which often includes its marvelous strong safety, Troy Polamalu. Alexander runs for 145 yards on 30 carries. The Seahawks’ balanced offense has Steeler defenders guessing.
Therefore, I like Seattle, 27-24. And I don’t consider it an upset.
John Sleeper is a Herald columnist
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