SEATTLE — Earlier this month, MLB.com gave the Seattle Mariners an 88 percent chance of reaching the playoffs.
With the Oakland Athletics surging and the Mariners slumping prior to the recent All-Star break, that number dipped to 64 percent.
Seattle was up 71⁄2 games on the A’s for the American League’s second wild-card spot as recently as July 5. That number was down to three when the Mariners opened the second half of the season Friday night.
“I don’t think anybody here is thinking we’re going to go through the season without a couple of rocky stretches,” Mariners manager Scott Servais told reporters before the break.
But here’s the thing: The Mariners lead in the race for the last playoff spot, and they’re technically more than halfway through the season. Even with losses in eight of 11 games going into the break, the Mariners were on pace to win 97 games. The most wins a team’s had without making the playoffs since the second wild card was added in 2012 was the 91-win Texas Rangers in 2013.
So history suggests 92 wins gets you in, but that doesn’t mean the Mariners — and their fans — can relax. Consider some recent baseball history:
n The Indians overtook those 2013 Rangers when Texas had a three-game lead at the break, same with the Tigers overtaking the White Sox despite a three-game deficit at the hallway point in the AL Central in 2012.
n Seattle led the Royals by 2 1⁄2 games for the second wild card in 2014 but finished a game back. The Blue Jays went from four games back in 2015 to entering the playoffs with the AL’s top seed.
So the question is: Will the Mariners get enough of the breaks in the second half that teams inevitably need?
Here are three things that could make the Mariners’ season — as in their first playoff trip since 2001 to end North America’s longest active playoff drought among the major professional sports — and three things that could break it:
3 THINGS THAT COULD BREAK THE MARINERS
1. The rotation goes south
The Mariners’ most pleasant surprise of the first half was their starting rotation, which performed well above expectations, but what if it regresses to the mean?
For as good as Wade LeBlanc has been — essentially the rescuer of the Mariners’ rotation — he’s allowed four or more runs in three of his past five starts. His season earned-run average has gone from 2.63 after 72⁄3 shutout innings against the Red Sox on June 16 to 3.63 after allowing four runs in 41⁄3 innings in Colorado as the Mariners entered the break.
Then there’s all these innings thresholds. Marco Gonzales has pitched 1131⁄3 innings this season after a career-high 1261⁄3 innings all of last season. Inning totals are a concern for all of the Mariners’ starting rotation, not just Gonzales.
An arm has never fallen off for throwing an inning more than their previous career-high, but Servais and Co. are most certainly monitoring thresholds, and Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto said they’ll start to really look at the situation when a pitcher approaches 150-160 innings.
2. Injuries
Not to bring up 2017, but remember all those injuries last season? The Mariners haven’t endured anything to that degree this season, but Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, Ryon Healy, Mike Zunino and Ben Gamel have all missed at least one start because of injuries.
Zunino (ankle), James Paxton (back) and Felix Hernandez (back) are currently on the disabled list. Paxton spent most of his offseason with no goal greater than being healthy throughout the season after missing significant time each of the past two seasons with myriad injuries. His health is near the top of that make-or-break list.
3. Offensive jugger-not
The Mariners entered the break tied for the third-best team batting average in the AL (.258) behind the Red Sox (.272) and Astros (.261).
But they’re in the bottom half of the league in runs scored (10th) and the Mariners average about one fewer run per game than the top three run-scoring teams: the Red Sox, Astros and Yankees.
Here’s a scary thought for Mariners: No team ranked 10th or lower in the AL in runs scored has reached the postseason since the second wild card was added in 2012.
3 THINGS THAT COULD MAKE THE MARINERS
1. Robinson Cano
It’s undeniable the difference Cano adds to the Mariners’ lineup, and Dipoto told the New York Post this week that when Cano returns from his 80-game drug suspension on Aug. 14, he’ll do so as an everyday player in the Mariners’ lineup — even if that means splitting time at second base, first and designated hitter.
The Mariners’ offense averaged 4.6 runs per game in the 40 games they had Cano. They’re averaging 3.9 without him.
Despite what former Mariners second baseman Harold Reynolds said on 950-KJR last month, that Seattle should sit Cano and say, “See you next spring,” Cano’s bat and plate discipline augment the lineup to a level that could make the Mariners playoff bound.
2. Trader Jerry
The Mariners don’t have the upper-level prospects to offer that their competitors do, but you know Dipoto is scouring the market.
All signs have pointed to the Mariners chasing either a starting pitcher or one more arm for the back end of the bullpen, and the right addition could be the key to ensuring the Mariners a spot in the playoffs.
The question is, how much is Dipoto willing to deal? Or how much of the future is he willing to sacrifice for what really amounts to a spot in the one-game wild-card round? The Mariners aren’t out of the race for the AL West crown, but they entered the second half five games behind of the Houston Astros, and that’s a big hill to climb.
3. Mike Zunino’s swing
For all the Mariners’ success, they’ve had some players who have not lived up to expectations. Right-hander Juan Nicasio is one of them, third baseman Kyle Seager is another.
But for all of Zunino’s defensive prowess (and don’t ignore what he’s meant to the pitching staff), he’s batting .189 with 85 strikeouts in 60 games, which is a significant regression from last season. He batted .281 with 24 home runs, 61 RBI and a .589 slugging percentage from May 29 through the end of last season, and the only other players to do that (or better) were Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Votto.
Zunino finding the swing he had last season would be a huge break for the Mariners.
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