LYNNWOOD — Commercial jet makers the Boeing Co. and Airbus came out of the recession in good shape and could see as many as 1,500 total orders this year, an analyst said Tuesday.
“We’ve had a pretty good recovery,” said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with the Teal Group.
In fact, the i
ndustry delivered $130 billion worth of commercial jets last year. Aboulafia and the Teal Group see that growing to $180 billion by 2020.
Aboulafia spoke Tuesday at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Lynnwood. The event concludes today.
“None of our predictions take into account a double-dip recession,” Aboulafia said.
The Teal Group’s predictions, however, do take into account different timelines for Boeing’s 787 and Airbus’ A350 XWB than announced by the manufacturers.
For instance, Aboulafia estimates Boeing will deliver just five 787s this year. And the likelihood of 787 deliveries slipping into 2012 is “not inconceivable,” he said.
Boeing has said it could deliver up to 20 of its 787 jets this year. The company is more than three years late in delivering the first Dreamliner.
The success of Boeing’s 787 depends heavily on its performance: a 20 percent reduction in fuel consumption over similarly sized aircraft. Aboulafia expects the Dreamliner to perform as advertised, aside from, perhaps, the initial deliveries.
The early jets had some problems with extra weight and also required some modifications because of manufacturing issues.
Aboulafia also predicted that delivery of Airbus’ A350 Extra Wide Body jet will be delayed to 2015. Airbus has said it will deliver the first of its mostly composite, fuel-efficient A350 in the second half of 2013.
Delayed or not, “this A350 thing, it’s for real,” Aboulafia said.
With more than 500 orders in hand for the A350, Airbus looks like it has chosen a strong product.
“This A350 better be as good as it looks otherwise it’s going to be a very difficult picture for Airbus on the widebody front,” Aboulafia said.
Airbus squandered too much money on developing the A380 super jumbo jet, which doesn’t have a bright future, in Aboulafia’s opinion.
However, Airbus made the best move it can afford in terms of coming up with the A320 new engine option, which will improve the fuel efficiency of its single-aisle jet, he said.
Boeing has been taking its time deciding the fate of its 737. As a result, Aboulafia said, “I think there will be a defection from the 737 to the A320 neo or (Bombardier’s) C-Series by the end of the year.”
Boeing and Airbus will see a decline in single-aisle deliveries around 2015 as airlines put off deliveries in favor of waiting for newer aircraft. Airbus’ A320 new engine option jet comes out in 2016. If Boeing goes with an all-new replacement for the 737, that would likely come out around 2020.
One reason Boeing and Airbus weathered the recession better than analysts, including Aboulafia, had expected: the rise in jet orders from the Middle East. About 25 percent of the widebody jet backlog comes from Middle Eastern carriers.
“In terms of orders, man, have they ramped up,” he said. But that growth can’t continue forever.
One area of the aircraft industry where Aboulafia didn’t have high hopes: the Air Force tanker contest. Boeing and EADS, Airbus’ parent company, are to put in their final bids for the $35 billion contest Friday.
“This is gridlock,” he said. “There really isn’t a way out of here unless there’s a joint buy.”
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