TOULOUSE, France — Airbus Group predicted airlines will buy planes worth $4.6 trillion at list prices over the next 20 years, with Chinese domestic travel surpassing the U.S. as the largest single aviation market within a decade.
Airlines will need 31,400 new jetliners and freighters during the period — 2,180 or 7 percent more than suggested in Airbus’s previous 20-year forecast a year ago — with passenger growth remaining at 4.7 percent annually, the company estimates.
John Leahy, Airbus’s sales chief, said in an interview that the company could contemplate lifting production of its single-aisle A320 series to 50 aircraft a month or higher, though no decision will be taken until 2015. The new forecast assumes that the A380 superjumbo will win more than half the market for very large aircraft, where it competes with Boeing’s latest 747, and that production can continue at 30 a year, he added.
“While mature aviation regions such as Europe and North America will continue to grow, Asia will stand out along with emerging markets for dynamic development,” said Leahy, who is also Airbus’s chief commercial officer. Demand will be especially strong for twin-engine wide-bodies, especially in 2017 through 2022, and the company is studying increased output of the new A350 and a faster ramp-up to full production of the re-engined A330neo, with decisions likely next year, he said.
The Toulouse, France-based manufacturer’s long-term forecast predicts demand for almost 9,300 wide-body planes worth $2.5 trillion — 1,500 of those in the 400-seat-plus bracket occupied by the A380 — and more than 22,000 single-aisle planes valued at $2.1 trillion in the market dominated by the A320 and Chicago-based Boeing’s 737.
The overall global fleet will grow to 37,500 planes by 2033 from 18,500 today, after 12,400 older and less efficient passenger aircraft and freighters are retired, Airbus said.
The biggest shift in the demand profile will be toward larger planes as airlines seek to maximize passenger numbers at airports with limited operating slots, the company predicted.
While Airbus won’t move beyond a 10 per month rate on the A330, the faster shift to the re-engined version due from 2017 may allow for production of more than the 86 upgraded planes that Leahy said earlier this week would be built in 2019.
On the A350, due for first delivery to Qatar Airways this year, Airbus will seek to go beyond 10 a month after 2018.
While Airbus reckons it will secure a larger share of the very large aircraft market, its projection for overall demand in the segment falls 200 planes short of the 1,700 sales it envisaged in last year’s forecast. Of the aircraft for which it no longer sees a market, 100 are dedicated cargo jets offered only by Boeing in the form of the 747 freighter, with the other 100 passenger planes in the A380 versus 747-8 segment.
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