Coal producers from the United States to Indonesia are scaling back output to speed up a recovery in the power-plant fuel that’s been weighed down by a global glut.
Indonesia, Australia and America, which comprise 60 percent of the total seaborne coal trade, will likely reduce exports by 8 percent this year from 2014 levels, Jeremy Sussman, an analyst at Clarksons Platou Securities Inc. in New York, wrote in a report Wednesday.
Global coal prices have fallen to eight-year lows as supply outstrips demand. Chinese imports of thermal coal, used to generate electricity, are down 38 percent so far this year through August, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“It’s certainly dictated by the market,” Sussman said Wednesday. “But the supply response is important. Supply cutbacks on the thermal coal side have been larger than expected.”
China’s diminished appetite for coal shocked the global market this year as the country invested in other sources such as nuclear and solar, Morgan Stanley said in a Sept. 29 report.
“Internationally, we expect Chinese imports to decline further in 2016 and Indian imports to decline from current higher levels which could set up another tough year for the coal industry,” John Bridges and Anant Inani, analysts at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a separate report Tuesday.
Due to the strong U.S. dollar, the only way Appalachia producers can place tons for export is to reduce prices that are already near the lowest seasonally in a decade, Bridges and Inani said.
Sussman estimates that utility coal is oversupplied to the tune of 65 million tons, or about 39 percent less than 2014’s glut. By 2017, that should be whittled down to 48 million tons, compared with a previous forecast for 59 million, he said.
“That’s not too shabby,” Sussman said. “Don’t mistake that for us saying everything’s good. It’s just discipline across the board.”
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