The Boeing Co. has increased the number of jets it predicts carriers will need over the next 20 years to 33,500 aircraft.
That’s up from last year’s estimate of 30,900 jets needed by 2029. Those jets are valued at roughly $4 trillion, Boeing said when it released its market outlook Thursday.
“It’s clear that we’re at the beginning of an up cycle,” said Randy Tinseth, Boeing’s vice president for marketing, during a briefing for journalists earlier this month.
Over the next 20 years, Boeing expects global air traffic to grow an average of 5.1 percent annually. That growth will spur airlines to buy new airplanes and to replace older, less-efficient ones.
Boeing released its new forecast a day after announcing that it will boost production on its 737 jet to 42 aircraft a month in 2014. The move reflects the continued demand for single-aisle aircraft revealed in Boeing’s forecast.
Single-aisle aircraft represent the largest increase in demand in Boeing’s market outlook, Tinseth said. Boeing estimates airlines will need 23,370 new single-aisle jets by 2030, up from a previous estimate of 21,160 jets over the next 20 years. Demand for single aisle jets alone make up more than $1.9 trillion of the total $4 trillion the market is estimated to be worth over 20 years.
Medium-size, twin-aisle jets like Boeing’s 787 or Airbus’ A350 make up the next-largest category both in terms of demand and dollar value. Boeing predicts 7,330 of these aircraft will be needed in 20 years, worth $1.8 trillion.
Carriers will need about 820 very large jets, including Boeing’s 747 and Airbus’ A380, worth $270 billion, Boeing said. At the far end of the scale, 1,980 regional jets — those smaller than Boeing’s 737 — will be required.
Of the 33,500 new jets, nearly a quarter have already been ordered, Tinseth said. That leaves Boeing, Airbus and smaller and emerging jet makers, including Canada’s Bombardier, Brazil’s Embraer and China’s Comac, to compete for the remaining 75 percent of orders.
Jet makers face a different market compared to 10 years ago in terms of who will be their major customers.
“Twenty years from now, the domestic Chinese market will be bigger than North America’s,” Tinseth said.
The Asia-Pacific region of the world will account for roughly 34 percent of aircraft demand, Boeing estimates. North America drops to third at 22 percent behind Europe at 23 percent. Latin America and the Middle East will account for about 8 percent each. However, Tinseth noted that demand from Middle Eastern carriers could go higher if they keep up their annual growth rate of about 10 percent.
Heading into the Paris Air Show this weekend, where jet deals are often done, Boeing has 134 net orders so this year. But Tinseth noted a lot of activity is taking place, especially after a few years of decreased air travel. Already airlines are showing interest not only in new aircraft but also in possible updates like new interior, he said.
“Air travel is very resilient,” Tinseth said.
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