Sales of commercial aircraft will continue to increase over the next two decades as airlines look for jets that are more fuel efficient and cheaper to maintain, the Boeing Co.’s Randy Tinseth predicted Wednesday.
Tinseth, the company’s marketing director, raised Boeing’s outlook for the world jet market by 14 percent, thanks to expected strength in the world’s economy. He expects airlines to buy 29,400 planes during the next 20 years, which he valued at $3.2 trillion. The previous outlook predicted sales of 28,600 planes valued at $2.8 trillion.
Tinseth said he expected oil prices to continue to be volatile for the next two to three years before stabilizing. That, he said, may prompt airlines to speed replacement of the older jets in their fleets.
“If oil stays at very high levels, clearly it will have a short term impact as airlines have to work on remaking themselves,” he said, adding, “Some planes, like the MD-80s and older 737s, that we expect to have a long life may be retired a little earlier.”
Tinseth reduced the company’s expectations of purchases in the U.S. market, but he said sales in Asia will likely be better than earlier expected.
Noting a huge prediction for air traffic increases in China, he said the country has 97 airports in construction today to meet expected demand.
Tinseth’s report, called the Boeing Market Outlook, calls for a 5 percent annual increase in global air travel for the next 20 years and a 5.8 percent increase in air cargo traffic over the period.
During the next two decades, airlines will take delivery of an expected:
2,510 regional jets valued at $80 billion.
19,160 single-aisles jets like the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320. The sales are valued at $1,360 billion.
6,750 twin-aisle jets like the Boeing 777 or Airbus A340 at a value of $1,470 billion.
980 jumbos like the 747 or A380 at a value of $280 billion.
The company’s share price rose 15 cents to $66.07 on Wednesday.
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