The Boeing Co. could not only locate a second 787 jet line outside Washington state but also may move its original Dreamliner production elsewhere, an analyst predicted Wednesday.
If the governor and lawmakers don’t take significant action quickly, the state stands to slowly lose its aerospace manufacturing base, analyst Scott Hamilton, with Leeham Co., told county business leaders at meeting hosted by the Economic Development Council of Snohomish County.
“For you stakeholders in keeping the 787 in Everett, the clock is already ticking,” he said.
Earlier this month, a study, paid for by the state, found that Washington lagged behind others in business competitiveness. Washington lawmakers have been concerned that Boeing may pick another state for a second jet production line for its 787 Dreamliner. Its original 787 assembly line is in Everett.
Hamilton predicts that Boeing will make a decision on where to locate a second line by the end of 2009 or early 2010. Boeing hasn’t announced a decision or confirmed it will need a second production line.
Should Boeing go elsewhere with a second 787 line, Hamilton predicts the company may close down Dreamliner production in Everett in 2013 or 2014, consolidating all 787 assembly to the new location.
If it does, Boeing likely won’t build its next all-new jets — replacements for the 737 and 777 — in the state either.
Still, Hamilton reserves some hope that Washington could still “pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat.”
But the response by lawmakers in Olympia won’t cut it, Hamilton said. Gov. Chris Gregoire has proposed an aerospace council be formed and Rep. Mike Sells has proposed a centralized aerospace training center at Edmonds Community College.
Hamilton says those efforts fall short. The state needs to improve its business climate – cutting unemployment insurance and workers compensation rates. And the state should create a “world class engineering school” in the Puget Sound, Hamilton said, noting that neither University of Washington nor Washington State University have programs ranked in the top 15 in the country.
“You can’t have anymore lip service,” Hamilton said.
Hamilton wasn’t alone in calling lawmakers in Olympia out on the carpet. Snohomish County Executive Aaron Reardon urged business leaders at the meeting to call legislators during the waning days of the session. Boeing is Snohomish County’s largest employer with roughly 30,000 direct jobs and an estimated 120,000 indirect positions.
“Take a stand for the men and women who draw a paycheck from the manufacturing base,” Reardon said.
“Our job is to advocate that our lawmakers take steps to keep the state competitive,” he said.
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