DETROIT – After a sizzling September, U.S. sales of new cars and trucks likely cooled in October, more so for Detroit’s Big Three carmakers than foreign brands, analysts say.
Heavy-but-costly incentive spending at the end of September likely pulled ahead a portion of October sales for some automakers, while sagging consumer confidence may have hurt business, observers say. Major automakers report October results Wednesday.
New vehicle sales surged in September to their second-highest level of 2004, climbing to a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 17.5 million units. Predictions vary for October, but the consensus appears to be in the mid-16 million unit range, up from 16.1 million a year ago.
“October sales will be below September’s levels but still sustained at high levels by incentive spending,” Merrill Lynch analyst John Casesa said.
Casesa cited as a concern the significant drop last month in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which he pegged to worries about high energy prices and said “could make the payback for September more severe.”
Casesa expects each of Detroit’s automakers – General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG’s Chrysler Group – to post year-over-year sales declines for October. His predictions: GM down 5 percent, Ford down 9 percent and Chrysler down 2 percent.
Casesa predicts double-digit gains for Toyota and Nissan, and slight increases for Honda and Subaru.
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