Double the current world fleet could be crowding the skies and airports by 2020

Associated Press

SEATTLE — As many as 33,000 jets — double the current world fleet — could be crowding the skies and airports by 2020 as demand for international travel and cargo transportation continues to grow, Boeing Co. predicts.

In a market outlook report released Wednesday at the Paris Air Show, Boeing said it expects world air travel to grow by 4.7 percent and air cargo transport to grow by 6.4 percent a year over the next 20 years.

That increased demand will spur airlines to invest $1.7 trillion for 23,500 new commercial airplanes, Boeing said

Of that total, 18 percent, or 4,300 planes, will be smaller regional jets with 90 or fewer seats, 56 percent or 13,300 will be larger regional jets and single-aisle planes, 21 percent or 4,900 will be intermediate-size jetliners, and just 5 percent or 1,100 will be for Boeing’s 747 and Airbus Industries’ new A380 superjumbo.

Airbus’ war of words

The report reflects Boeing’s differences with rival Airbus. Boeing predicts the market will favor smaller planes for nonstop routes, while Airbus is betting airlines will want its A380, a double-deck aircraft that will carry 555 passengers.

"We see market fragmentation — or point-to-point operations — continuing worldwide, which means airlines will rely more and more on smaller airplanes to meet passenger demand for safe, reliable service," Boeing Commercial Airplanes Group vice president Randy Baseler said.

Boeing said that of the 33,000 jets predicted to be flying in 2020, almost 18,400 will be new airplanes for market growth, 5,100 will be new planes replacing existing aircraft, and more than 9,500 will be planes currently in service.

But the company is betting that support services — the care and maintenance of existing aircraft and other infrastructure services — will be the true revenue producer, generating a $3 trillion market in the next two decades.