Barring a national recession, most elements of Snohomish County’s economy should continue to see solid growth next year, members of the Everett Area Chamber of Commerce were told Thursday.
“I think you will be less affected than the average part of the country if we go into a recession,” said Bill Conerly, an Oregon economist.
He noted the county would be shielded from any small economic storms because of its continued population growth and the immense success of the Boeing Co.
“Boeing is huge,” he said.
Conerly noted that Boeing has said that it won’t be hiring as many people as it has in the past when jet sales were strong. “I don’t believe it,” he said. “I think Boeing will try building everything it can. It’s like an alcoholic saying, ‘I’m only going to have two drinks.’ “
Boeing has averaged about 95 orders a month and is producing 33 planes a month, Conerly said, adding he expected production to ramp up because “they’re only producing a third of what they’re taking orders for.”
The Northwest in general and the county in particular have only one thing to fear – a national recession triggered by a collapse in the housing market, Conerly said.
He noted that many of the areas of the country have built too many homes, but had been able to sell them to investors on speculation. If investors watching the market drop shift their money into the stock market too quickly, it could force a recession, Conerly said.
His guess is that there is a one in four chance of a recession during the next year.
Recession or no, the drop in the national housing market will hurt the local economy, he added.
“The Northwest is going to be taking a hit,” he said. “I see some (lumber) mills closing down.”
Locally, he said, builders have been producing homes at the rate needed to accommodate population growth. He doesn’t expect the local housing market to face dramatic changes unless the influx of new people wanes.
Other factors that affect the economy, international trade, business investment, consumer spending and gas prices will continue to be positive next year, Conerly said.
He predicted a continued fall in gas prices as more companies increase oil supplies by opening up new discoveries.
On the job front, Conerly said employers may find that unemployment here is actually too low, a condition that makes workers more likely to leave for a better situation.
“Labor is getting tight,” he said. “You have a smaller pool to choose from and your quit rate is going up.”
He suggested that employers work harder to keep employees by doing things as simple as thanking them for good work.
“You have people who are ready to bail,” he said. “Have good rewards and make sure your people have good interaction.”
Herald writer Mike Benbow: 425-339-3459 or benbow@heraldnet.com.
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