Events favor the Sonic Cruiser

By Dave Carpenter

Associated Press

CHICAGO — A calamitous month for U.S. aviation is forcing drastic cutbacks across the industry, including up to 30,000 layoffs at Boeing Co. by the end of next year.

But analysts say Boeing’s gamble on a radical new concept for the next generation of commercial jet — faster, smaller, longer-range — looks more like a winning bet as a result of air travel’s altered outlook.

The Sonic Cruiser, still in planning, was seen as a bold and risky move when the No. 1 aircraft maker announced the concept in March and abandoned plans for a larger 747. Those risks may have diminished with the seismic shifts in the economy and in attitudes of the flying public that could weaken the market for superjumbo jets — like the one rival Airbus Industries is developing.

"The outcome of this is simply going to enhance the concept of air transportation as something where you don’t just carry a lot of people, you carry a lot of revenue," said Michael Boyd, an independent aviation consultant in Evergreen, Colo. "Air transportation is going to grow even less than we thought before."

Boeing’s Cruiser, he said, represents not just an airplane but a whole new technology to steer aviation in the future. "That’s the future of their company."

Even as Boeing painted a grim picture of the near term, the Chicago-based company has strongly reiterated its commitment to the Cruiser since the hijacking attacks on New York and Washington, D.C.

Clutching a toy version on a visit to a Seattle-area school this week, the head of its commercial aircraft division sang the airplane’s praises and said it was part of the company’s plan to meet airlines’ needs.

"We’re going to do whatever it takes for the long term," Alan Mulally said of the plane, which is tentatively set to fly in 2007 or 2008.

Airbus, too, has said it remains on track with its aircraft of the future. The A380, a superjumbo jet that will seat 555 passengers, is to go into service in 2006.

But industry experts say the European company may be in a much more precarious position, having already invested billions of dollars and signed contracts for an aircraft facing a potential market shift.

"They’ll probably continue with it on schedule, but there could very well be a very significant slowdown in orders," said aviation analyst Paul Nisbet of JSA Research.

The Cruiser will fly at almost 750 mph, just under the speed of sound and about 200 mph faster than most current airliners. It would fly at 41,000 to 50,000 feet, some 10,000 feet higher than the norm. And it would carry 200 to 300 passengers more than 10,000 miles nonstop, thanks to a giant fuel tank in its huge wing — only part of a revolutionary design still under wraps.

Drawings show an aircraft unlike any other existing commercial jet, with delta wings near its tail, two smaller wings near the nose and a pair of engines blended into the wing.

Boeing has refused to confirm or deny widespread industry talk that the aircraft is being tested to go even faster, which would make it a supersonic rather than sonic cruiser.

Its high speed and tremendous range stand to make it more profitable for the airlines than a jumbo or superjumbo jet, since it could make more trips per day. Success hinges on the long-term growth of business travel.

Recent events, analysts say, have left the A380 more vulnerable to public uneasiness with huge planes, the cutback in leisure travel and the potential for additional turbulence if more attacks occur.

"The Airbus project is designed around the concept of large urban centers, moving people from one to another," said J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Nadol. "If terrorism continues to be a greater and greater problem, the demographic growth of large urban centers could be an issue."