International Lease Finance Corp. chief Steven Udvar-Hazy was in Everett this morning for the ceremony marking the delivery of AeroMexico’s first 777, which it’s leasing from ILFC.
After the speeches, hugs and handshakes, a couple of us cornered him for a few minutes of talk about the industry. The highlights:
* Look for further A350 tweaks — Hazy predicted that Airbus will announce yet more changes to its A350 design by the time of the Farnborough Air Show this summer. The problem, he said, is that the A350 is a hybrid of new 787-inspired engines, advanced materials — and a 1970s airframe. “It’s still an old A300 (cross section). … It’s not optimized. It’s not where the 777 and 787 are.”
“Airbus,” he continued, “has to address whether they keep refining this A330 line and calling it an A350” or instead to make serious upgrades to the design.
ILFC has orders in for 10 A350s, by the way.
* The “Interncontinental” won’t be a worldwide favorite — Hazy said airlines have far more interest in the 747-8 as a cargo carrier than passenger plane.
Current 747 operators “will look at it very carefully,” he said. (Like Qantas, perhaps? Boeing is pitching it Down Under, reports The Australian: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,18579060%255E23349,00.html) And some will decide they want the 450-seat plane. “But it depends on how competitive Boeing can be on pricing,” Hazy said.
On the other hand, the 747-8F cargo jet is attractive to a wide range of cargo haulers, Hazy said.
* 737 Successor — Hazy described it as an interesting question. The 737 will be 40 years old in 2007. “That’s a long time.” But it’s still highly profitable and a top seller.
Boeing will have to replace it eventually, but “these airplanes will have to have a distinct economic advantage,” Hazy said. “It’s going to take a tremendous amount of new technology and new investment.”
He said that will require a significant step forward by engine makers. “As soon as there’s an engine technology that can deliver a 15-percent cost advantage … then it makes sense to invest in a new family successor.”
His prediction? Look for it some time around 2013-14.
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