A day after Forbes magazine declared the housing market in the Seattle area the most stable in the nation, local statistics showed that home sales in Snohomish County had dropped 31 percent from a year ago.
Is there a conflict here?
No, say the magazine and local housing officials.
“It looks like the market has kind of taken a deep breath and just corrected itself a little bit,” said Nathan Gorton of the Snohomish County Camano Board of Realtors.
The Northwest Multiple Listing Service, which keeps sales data for most counties in Western Washington, released its September numbers Friday.
What the numbers said is that homes available for sale in the county increased nearly 54 percent last month in comparison with September 2006. Pending sales, meaning homes that entered the sales process last month and didn’t complete it, dropped 37 percent. As mentioned above, closed sales dropped 31 percent.
Prices continued to rise, climbing 4.4 percent. The combined median sale price of single-family houses and condominiums, meaning half sold for more and half sold for less, climbed to $344,500 last month from $330,000 a year ago.
Gorton said the inventory amounts to about five months of home sales, which he calls a healthy number. “With the inventory out there, if you have your eye on three houses, you’ll be the successful bidder on one of them.”
As for price appreciation over the past year, Gorton said 4 percent is nothing to sneeze at. “I’m fine with 4 percent,” he said. “I hope to see single digits right now. It’s a good time to be a buyer right now.”
Gorton was glad to see the Forbes piece because he thinks there’s a lot of confusion of the local market because of all the national stories about a mortgage meltdown in much of the country.
“I talk to a lot of buyers’ agents whose customers are saying they just want to sit back right now because they don’t think it’s a good time to buy a home,” he said. “They think, ‘Oh my gosh, the market is falling apart.’ Nothing could be further from the truth.”
The Forbes piece ranked Seattle above places like Pittsburgh, Columbus, Ohio and Dallas, saying that there have been strong price increases here during the past 18 months and that appreciation at a slower pace is expected to continue into 2008. It also notes a lower housing inventory, strong sales and fewer high-risk loans, which means fewer buyers are expected to default anytime soon.
Its assessment is based on computer-prediction models developed with Moody’s Economy.com.
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s, didn’t say things would be great here, just that the models don’t predict the problems that are occurring in most of the country.
“It’s not like any of these markets are going gangbusters,” he said. “Even Seattle: It’s been very strong, but conditions are weakening and this year, at best, will be an OK year.”
Gorton agrees with that prediction.
“I call our market linear with bursts,” he said, explaining that means fairly gradual rises with periodic sharp increases. “We’re taking a deep breath and taking time to reassess where we are. It’s slowed down a bit, but I think we’re going to be OK.”
J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, noted the nation’s “turbulent mortgage market” is hurting sales. But he noted that “interest rates are still low, the local economy is healthy and job growth is strong.”
One thing agents agree on is that the people who want to sell their homes need to price them realistically because there are plenty of homes out there. And homes need to be move-in ready, said Windermere spokeswoman Sonja Riveland.
“With all the choices out there for buyers, homes with deferred maintenance are sitting,” she said.
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